By Da Zhigang
According to the national telephone public opinion survey carried out by Kyodo News Agency from 17 to 18 December, 64.9% of the respondents disapproved of a recently announced plan by the Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's cabinet to raise taxes to finance a substantial increase in the nation's defense spending. Meanwhile, 87.1% of the respondents felt Kishida had failed to explain the tax hike plan adequately. The results have highlighted the lack of social foundations including the support of public opinion for the measure to "increase defense costs by tax hikes" abruptly proposed by Kishida's cabinet, and confirmed criticisms of parties out of power that there has been in lack of serious cross-party discussions and detailed explanation the public about the measure. This is not only out of inter-party strife, but also reflects the general concern of all sectors of Japan.
Objectively speaking, under the multiple effects of the Japanese government's constant portrayal of the so-called external threats in high profile, the contribution of some conservative media, and the repeated efforts of some politicians, the proportion of Japanese society's support for its strengthening defense force has been increasing for some time. However, when Kishida said that it was the responsibility of its nationals to accept the tax hikes, and his cabinet was ready to solve the gap by "integrating four taxes into one", the public opinion turned downward, showing a significant difference of enthusiasm compared with before. The unpopularity of "tax hikes to increase defense budget" has a lot to do with the following three aspects.
First, public opinion tends to place more emphasis on economic recovery than on strengthening defense. The measure to "increase defense budget by tax hikes" may put an abrupt end to Japan's current economic recovery which has been growing better. The measures taken currently by the enterprises such as salary increases in response to the high prices for its employees and investment in enterprise equipment, conducive to economic recovery, may be adversely affected, and pessimism afraid of a hit to the entire economy is permeating the entire economic circle. Moreover, without benign economic development, the so-called "tax hikes to increase defense budget" to a proportion of 2% GDP, a NATO's goal of military spending proportion, is bound to repeatedly afflict Japan's fragile economy.
Second, compared with the move to "increase defense budget with tax hikes", the Japanese people are more concerned about improving their livelihood under the impact of COVID-19, the devaluation of the yen and high prices. In view of the fact that the move is to bring an annual increase of 40,000 yen (about USD$300) to the people's living burden per capita, the grass-roots people cannot understand the government's behavior to increase tax against the trend, instead of implementing tax cuts to revitalize the economy. People in earthquake-stricken areas such as Fukushima also hoped that the Japanese government would promote the reconstruction of disaster areas in the next 10 years in a down-to-earth manner, rather than developing armaments in the name of repurposing the tax on reconstruction of disaster areas.
Third, the Japanese people are more worried about being retaliated against than their own ability to fight back. Although more than half of the Japanese people agreed that the new version of Japan's national security strategy includes the “counterattack capability” that can attack enemy bases, there is a growing concern that the destruction of targets within the territory of other countries may lead to tension with neighboring countries, especially that they may be subject to more intense retaliation once handled improperly. This can be seen from the fact that the partners of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and most opposition parties have expressed their unwillingness to stimulate neighboring countries in diplomacy, and that people of the economic circle and some government officials have advocated more euphemistic expressions in reports. In addition, the poll conclusion that 61% of the respondents believed that this would "aggravate" the tension with the surrounding countries further demonstrates the public's misgivings.
The public opinion survey results mentioned above show the enthusiasm shift of the Japanese officials and civilians in the move to "increase defense budget by tax hikes", and this will also have three major impacts on Japanese politics.
First of all, sticking to the move to "increase defense budget by tax hikes" will lower the already precarious support rate of the Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's cabinet. The public opinion survey showed that the support rate of the Fumio Kishida's cabinet was only 33.1%, the same as that of last month, which was the lowest point since the establishment of the cabinet last October. It can be seen that the promotion of the new version of Japan's national security strategy emphasizing "external threats" did not raise the cabinet's support rate; instead, it encountered "cold masses of air" among the people.
Secondly, promoting the persistence in "tax hikes to increase defense budget" will aggravate the growing opposition of Japanese political parties. Focusing on the move to "increase defense budget by tax hikes", the ruling party and the opposition parties will carry out a more intense public opinion contest, while throwing Japanese politics into the myth of "desperate decree".
Finally, ignoring the public opinion demands on the move to "increase defense budget by tax hikes" will aggravate the Japanese people's distrust of the government, as well as people's extreme impression of some politicians who tend to take risks regardless of the public interests. Meanwhile, the consequences including the estrangement from the public and increasing marginalization of public opinion, will eventually be chewed by the Fumio Kishida's cabinet itself.
In a word, the public opinion survey showed that there is a huge divergence between the move to "increase defense budget by tax hikes" as advocated by Fumio Kishida's cabinet and the public's perception. However, the Fumio Kishida cabinet's insistence on pursuing the move will have to face many difficulties in the future under the continuous "cold masses of air" with criticism from public opinion.
(The author is the Director and Researcher of Northeast Asia Research Institute, Heilongjiang Provincial Academy of Social Sciences, China, and Chief Expert of the Northeast Asia Strategic Research Institute)
Editor's note: Originally published on huanqiu.com, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
