By Cao Weidong and Hu Chengcheng
曹卫东、胡铖铖
The new year has come. Military observer Cao Weidong made an analysis and prediction on the upcoming changes in the field of weapons and equipment worldwide in 2023.
新年已至，军事观察员曹卫东对2023年世界范围内武器装备领域即将迎来的新变化做出了分析和预测。
The Russia–Ukraine conflict will lead to changes in weapons and equipment
俄乌冲突将引发武器装备新变化
The US-led NATO has continuously upgraded weapons and equipment supply to Ukraine since Russia announced the launch of special military operations on February 24, 2022. For example, NATO has upgraded its weapon supply to Ukraine from anti-low-attitude-flying-target missile “Stinger” and anti-tank missile Javelin to the “Patriot” air defense system and the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS).
自2022年2月24日，俄罗斯宣布开展特别军事行动以来，美国为首的北约不断升级其向乌克兰提供的武器装备。比如，从最初的防中低空“毒刺”导弹，升级到“爱国者”防空反导系统；从“标枪”反坦克导弹，升级到“海马斯”多管火箭炮系统等。
Cao believes NATO will focus on high-tech weapons in the future, in responding to the development of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In terms of fighter jets, whether it is continuing to purchase F-35 fighter jets from the US or using stealth fighter jets jointly developed by Europe, NATO will move ahead in this area. Given the performance of Russia's Kinzhal hypersonic missile and the Iskander missile with a relatively long range and high strike accuracy, NATO will spare energy on how to intercept and conduct targeted research and development in the area of air defense and anti-missile defense.
曹卫东认为，根据俄乌冲突的发展情况，北约未来在武器装备的发展上会聚焦高精尖武器。战机方面，无论是继续向美国购买F-35战机，还是使用欧洲联合研发的隐身战机，北约方面都会有所举动。而在防空反导领域，针对俄罗斯的“匕首”高超音速导弹，以及射程比较远、打击精度比较高的“伊斯坎德尔”导弹，北约都会在2023年内考虑如何拦截以及针对性研发。
New trends in the development of strategic weapons
战略武器发展将出现新动向
The US unilaterally established a global ballistic missile defense system in 2022. At the same time, it tore up the Treaty on Open Skies with Russia. As a result, the two sides cannot check each other's nuclear weapons and mutual distrust was increased. In addition, the US deployed B61-12 tactical nuclear weapons with relatively small yields in Europe to lower the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons.
2022年，美国单方面建立了全球弹道导弹防御体系，同时撕毁了和俄罗斯之间的《开放天空条约》，导致双方不能相互检查对方核武情况，增加了彼此的互不信任。此外，美国为了降低核武器使用门槛，在欧洲部署了当量比较小的战术核武器B61-12。
These practices have made many countries anxious and may lead them to take asymmetric measures as responses. For example, Russia is committed to developing hypersonic missiles, rather than small-yield tactical nuclear weapons. Overall, countries will gradually increase the proportion of sea-based strategic nuclear forces and reduce the proportion of land-based forces. Various countries will also develop their delivery vehicles towards high-speed, high mobility and multi-warheads.
这些做法引起很多国家的不安，可能导致他国采取不对称的应对措施。比如俄罗斯就不去研发小当量的战术核武器，而是致力于研发高超音速导弹。整体来看，各国将逐步增加海基战略核力量的比重，降低陆基占比；各国未来运载工具也会向高速变轨多弹头的方向发展。
New breakthroughs to be made in unmanned equipment
无人装备发展将寻求新突破
Among the unmanned equipment, the development of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) is the fastest. The initial emphasis was on reconnaissance and surveillance, and then it was the integration of reconnaissance and strike. Now, the new trend is to enable UAV to coordinate with manned aircraft and make UAV stealth.
在无人装备中，无人飞机的发展是最快的，从最初强调侦察监视功能，到后来注重察打一体，现在还要和有人装备一起配合，并强调隐身能力。
The US has developed the XQ-58A Valkyrie stealth drone, which can work with F-22, F-35, and other manned stealth fighter jets. Russia has also developed the S-70 Hunter stealth drone to work with stealth fighter jets like the Su-57. Iran and Israel are currently developing new types of drones. At the end of 2022, the ROK announced that it would establish a drone unit and develop drones to counter drones.
美国已经研制了XQ-58A“女武神”隐身无人机，可以和美国的F-22、F-35等有人隐身战机一起工作。俄罗斯也研发了S-70“猎人”隐身无人机，配合苏-57这样的隐身战机。目前伊朗、以色列都在研制新型的无人机。2022年年底，韩国宣布要成立无人机部队，研发反无人机的无人机。
To sum up, many countries will develop more types of drones in 2023. Breakthroughs in terms of airtime, flight speed, and flight altitude might be their new goals when developing drones.
2023年，很多国家都会发展更多类型的无人机。在滞空时间、飞行速度、飞行高度等方面寻求突破，是各国在发展无人机时的新目标。
New improvements in the informatization of weapons and equipment
武器装备信息化将出现新提升
Developed countries always take advantage of their strength in cyberspace and make the Internet serve their own interests. In 2023, they will continue to use their original advantages to integrate various weapons, platforms, and command posts, continuously improve the level of informatization, and strengthen interference or reconnaissance of opponents so they can paralyze the opponent's network in the event of a conflict.
发达国家利用在网络空间的优势，让网络为自己的利益服务。今年，它们将会继续利用自己原有的优势，把各种武器、平台、指挥所整合起来，不断提高信息化程度，加强对对手的干扰或者侦搜，一旦发生冲突的时候能够瘫痪对方的网络。
For example, the US Space Force announced the establishment of its first regional combatant command, the Space Force Indo-Pacific Command in 2022. The US Space Exploration Technology Corporation officially released the Starshield satellite project dedicated to serving the government, defense and intelligence agencies.
比如，2022年美国太空军宣布设立首个战区军种分部——太空军印太司令部，美国太空探索技术公司正式发布专门为政府、国防和情报部门服务的“星盾”卫星项目。
It should be noted that the future war is a war under informatization, and the construction of informatization will drive the development of the entire weapon equipment system. In 2023, the improvement of weapons and equipment informatization will be a key point for countries, because such improvement is a "multiplier" of combat capabilities.
应该看到，未来的战争是信息化条件下的战争，信息化的建设会带动整个武器装备体系的发展。在新的年度里，武器装备信息化的提升将是各国推进的一个重点，这种能力的提升是作战能力的“倍增器”。
Editor's note: Originally published on military.cnr.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
