By Wang Aoduo
王傲多
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic ordered combat readiness for the armed forces and security services at the highest level, on the evening of December 26, 2022, local time. According to reports, there is a intense confrontation between Serbia and the Kosovo authorities.
塞尔维亚总统武契奇当地时间2022年12月26日晚下令，塞尔维亚军队、警察进入最高级别战备状态。据报道，当前塞尔维亚与科索沃当局正发生紧张对峙。
Recently, tensions between Serbia and the Kosovo authorities have continued to escalate. Teng Jianqun, a military observer, analyzed that some European countries are dissatisfied with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic's administration at present. The main reasons for the escalation of the situation are the intervention by external forces and the Kosovo authorities' desire to seek "independence" by taking the Russia-Ukraine conflict as a window of opportunity.
近期，塞尔维亚和科索沃当局之间的紧张局势持续升级。军事观察员滕建群分析认为，目前，欧洲一些国家对于塞尔维亚总统武契奇的执政有所不满，外部势力的推动干预和科索沃当局欲借俄乌冲突谋求“独立”是导致此次局势升级的主要原因。
The Kosovo authorities hope to take advantage of the Russia-Ukraine conflict to go one step further in achieving "independence", solicit greater support from countries and organizations such as the US, the European Union, and NATO, and obtain more military aid.
此外，科索沃当局希望利用俄乌冲突，在实现“独立”方面更进一步，得到美国、欧盟以及北约等国家或组织更大的支持，获取更多的军事援助。
Currently, NATO peacekeeping forces are stationed in Kosovo. After the conflict, Serbian President Vucic asked the NATO peacekeeping force to allow a deployment of about 1,000 Serbian troops and policemen in Kosovo but was refused. Vucic then ordered the expansion of the number of Serbian Special Forces from 1,500 to 5,000.
目前，科索沃地区驻扎着北约维和部队。冲突发生后，塞尔维亚总统武契奇曾要求北约维和部队允许其在科索沃地区部署约1000人规模的军队和警察，但遭到拒绝。随后武契奇下令将塞尔维亚特种部队人数从1500人扩充到5000人。
According to UN Security Council Resolution 1244, the Serbian government has the right to send peacekeeping troops to Kosovo. Teng believes that Serbia's request is reasonable and legal, while the rejection by the US and NATO is to "take sides", in order to protect or promote Kosovo's so-called "independence".
根据联合国安理会第1244号决议，塞尔维亚政府有权向科索沃地区派驻维和部队。滕建群认为，塞尔维亚方面的要求合理合法，美国和北约拒绝这一请求是在塞尔维亚和科索沃当局之间“拉偏架”，就是想保护或者推动科索沃实现所谓“独立”。
Serbia's moves to increase its combat readiness level and expand its special forces are no just demonstration of capability and determination to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity, but also a preparation for dealing with unexpected events.
塞尔维亚提高战备等级、扩充特种部队，是在显示维护国家主权和领土完整的能力和决心，同时也是为了应对不测。
According to reports, the US is strengthening military cooperation with the Kosovo region to help the Kosovo authorities train troops. This has also triggered speculation that "the US intends to make Kosovo the 'second battlefield'" in Europe. In this regard, Teng believes that the US and NATO are unable to afford another war of attrition. It will deal a heavier blow to Europe once the situation in Kosovo deteriorates.
据报道，美国近期正在加强与科索沃地区的军事合作，帮助科索沃当局训练军队。这也引发了外界“美国欲将科索沃开辟成欧洲‘第二战场’”的猜测。对此，滕建群认为，美国和北约已无力再负担一场消耗战，一旦科索沃局势升级，将对欧洲造成更沉重的打击。
Overall, the situation in Kosovo may remain relatively intense for a certain period. The US, like European countries, does not want another large-scale conflict in this region as it will consume a lot of energy of the US. EU countries are also more willing to let Kosovo leave Serbia step by step, rather than stir up trouble in this region.
总体上看，科索沃地区局势可能会在一定时间内保持相对紧绷的状态。美国和欧洲国家一样，不希望在这个地区再爆发一场大规模冲突，那样的话，肯定会牵扯美国很多精力。欧盟国家也更愿意采取“切香肠”的模式，一步步让科索沃离开塞尔维亚，而非在这个地区挑起事端。
However, the Balkan Peninsula is known as the "powder keg". Once it is ignited, Europe will bear the double negative impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and a conflict in the Balkans, which will place Europe in a more difficult situation.
但是巴尔干半岛素有“火药桶”之称，一旦被点燃，欧洲要承受俄乌冲突和巴尔干地区爆发冲突的双重负面冲击，欧洲的境遇将更加困难。
Editor's note: Originally published on military.cnr.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
