By Guo Xiaobing
The world has been in serious nuclear tension since the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out. Will nuclear weapons be used? Will the conflict escalate into a nuclear war? The world is watching nervously.
Different parties have proposed their plans for coping with the looming risk of a nuclear war. Some are sending a stronger signal of nuclear deterrence: as NATO held the “Steadfast Noon” nuclear deterrence exercise, Russia responded tit-for-tat by organizing the Grom nuclear exercise. Some are trying to reinforce their nuclear umbrella: Japan is discussing “nuclear sharing”, and ROK is seriously considering re-introducing tactical nuclear weapons. In face of the dangerous situation and expectations of the international community, China has offered its own plan.
Li Song, the Chinese Ambassador for Disarmament Affairs, made a statement on nuclear disarmament at the Thematic Discussion on Nuclear Weapons of the 77th Session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) First Committee. He called upon the five nuclear weapon states to conclude a treaty on mutual no-first use of nuclear weapons and called on the Conference on Disarmament to negotiate and conclude an international legally binding instrument on negative security assurances for non-nuclear weapon states. This is to say that nuclear weapon states commit to not using or threatening to use nuclear weapons at non-nuclear weapon states under any or certain circumstances.
Ambassador Li’s proposal was not a new measure just brought up as an expedient. China is the only one of the five nuclear weapon states recognized by the Treaty on Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) that has consistently adhered to the non-first use principle. It made the solemn commitment to never use nuclear weapons first after its first nuclear test in 1964. At the 49th UNGA in 1994, it called upon all nuclear weapon states to declare unconditional non-first use, and to immediately negotiate and sign a treaty on not using nuclear weapons against each other first, or using them or threatening to use them against any non-nuclear weapon states or regions. China has been reiterating this position repeatedly ever since, but its initiatives haven’t seen any substantial progress because of the respective concerns of other nuclear weapon states.
Raising this topic now is of special and great importance. First, it accommodates the concerns of all parties and can defuse the imminent risk of nuclear warfare. No nuclear weapon state wants to see a nuclear war, but is afraid of the rival using nuclear weapons first. Signing an official treaty that commits every party to non-first use would put everyone at ease. It is the fairest way to effectively mitigate the tension surrounding a nuclear-related decision.
Second, it will be an implementation of the five nuclear weapon states’ joint statement released on January 3 emphasizing that “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought”. The release of this statement was seen as a milestone in preventing nuclear warfare, but it hasn’t stopped the cloud of nuclear war from hovering over the world again. A treaty on non-first use would provide the fundamental guarantee for the implementation of the statement.
Third, it can curb the risk of nuclear proliferation. Both the efforts to intensify nuclear sharing and reintroduce tactical nuclear weapons will expand the scope of nuclear weapon deployment and increase the risk of their use. If the five nuclear weapon states take the lead in signing a non-first use treaty, promising not to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear weapon states under any condition, and if such a treaty is promoted to bring certain nuclear weapon states that are not bound by the NPT to make the same commitment, there would be no need to worry about a nuclear umbrella.
Fourth, it can create favorable conditions for future nuclear disarmament. A non-first-use commitment by nuclear weapon states removes the necessity to stockpile nuclear weapons in order to take preemptive steps and destroy the rival’s nuclear arsenal. This will help reduce the excessive amount of nuclear warheads stored in the two nuclear superpowers of the US and Russia.
Things are in constant change – good things may turn bad and vice versa. The Russia-Ukraine conflict aggravates the risk of nuclear warfare, but it gives a wake-up call to those habitually turning a blind eye to the threat of nuclear weapons. The question is what the international community will do to seize this opportunity and put the right assertion that China has been upholding and advocating earnestly into practice.
(The author is the director of the Institute of Arms Control and Security Studies, China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations)
Editor's note: Originally published on huanqiu.com, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
