By Du Zhaoping
Suspecting a new round of nuclear tests by the DPRK, frequently issuing threats of countermeasures to it, and resuming the long-suspended large-scale live-fire maneuvering exercise in the field, the Yoon Suk-yeol administration has abandoned the mild policy toward the DPRK since coming into office and turned to consolidating the ROK-US military alliance, which has continuously escalated the tension on the Korean Peninsula.
During Moon Jae-in’s term, the peninsular situation remained generally stable despite some minor frictions between ROK and US on one side and DPRK on the other every now and then. Especially after the summit meeting between Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un in 2018, Washington and Seoul halted their August joint military exercises that year, followed by another halt by the Moon Jae-in administration the next year. In the next two years, their joint military exercises were carried out in the form of computerized simulation due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Things changed after Yoon Suk-yeol stepped into power. He moved toward the US more quickly, consolidated the ROK-US alliance, and improved the relations with Japan while taking a tough and hostile policy toward DPRK, setting the peninsular situation on edge again.
On the one hand, ROK and the US suspected that DPRK may launch a new round of underground nuclear tests and therefore issued threatening signals to it multiple times. On June 29, top leaders of ROK, the US, and Japan held a trilateral meeting in Madrid in the middle of the NATO Summit and reached a consensus on how to respond to nuclear missile threats from Pyongyang. On July 6, Yoon Suk-yeol met with senior military leaders for the first time, asking them to enhance capacities and forestall DPRK’s nuclear weaponry and missile projects. On July 18, US Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen warned on a flight to Seoul that DPRK’s nuclear tests would incur further sanctions from the US. On July 22, ROK Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup said Pyongyang has almost completed all preparations for nuclear tests.
On the other hand, ROK and the US resumed their large-scale, live-fire joint exercises in the simulated background of tackling the peninsular situation. From June 3 to 5, the two countries held their first joint maritime exercise after Yoon Suk-yeol came into office. The last time Washington dispatched a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier to participate in the exercise was four years and seven months ago. From July 5 to 14, the US Air Force’s six F-35A fighter jets flew to ROK via Alaska for a joint exercise with their ROK counterparts, five years after the last such deployment. On July 22, ROK Defense Ministry announced that the US and ROK decided to hold their annual summer joint exercise from August 22 to September 1, during which they will resume the long-suspended large-scale, live-fire maneuvering exercise in the field in addition to operations at the joint command center. The ministry also said their military exercise will gradually resume the normal scale, and ROK will improve its missile detection capability and deploy the new interception system at an early date.
The DPRK has gone tit-for-tat against these moves by the US and ROK. On the very day that Seoul announced the resumption of the field maneuvering exercise, DPRK Foreign Ministry released a statement on its official website, saying that if Washington and Seoul were determined to carry out large-scale exercises around the Korean Peninsula using American strategic weapons, they should be waiting for the strongest reactions from Pyongyang. The statement also criticized the collusion among ROK, the US and Japan, adding that the actions of enemy forces to aggravate tension on the peninsula have left Pyongyang no choice but to further fortify its national defense capability. On July 21, the deputy director of the Institute for Disarmament and Peace, a think tank under DPRK’s Foreign Ministry, said ROK and the US planned to discuss nuclear weapon deployment during the military exercise, and they were pushing the peninsula to the edge of war. He warned that the US should give up its anachronistic, suicidal hostile policy toward DPRK, or it will face consequences it doesn’t want to face.
Analysts said by strengthening their military alliance, jointly hyping the nuclear threats from DPRK, and making their exercises more frequent and realistic, Washington and Seoul attempt to put greater political and military pressure on Pyongyang. That without any doubt will further exacerbate the tension on the peninsula and undermine peace and stability in Northeast Asia.
