杨丹志
By Yang Danzhi
日本外交正在遏制中国的道路上越走越远,台湾似乎正在成为日本右翼势力牌局上的一张“王炸”。
The Japanese government seems to be going further down the road of curbing China, and its right-wing forces seem to take the Taiwan Island as a “Trump card”.
日方近几个月来的涉台举措主要包括:在日美联合声明中明确表示关注台海局势,实则表明与美国协防台湾之意;
在台湾疫情吃紧,日本外相茂木敏充6月4日在记者会上正式宣布,向台湾提供124万剂新冠疫苗,并于当天通过飞机运往台湾;
在日本与澳大利亚外长及防长“2+2会谈”中双方均表示对台海问题的关切……日本在台湾问题上的一系列惊人之举,既有国际因素特别是美国因素影响,也有深刻的国内原因。
Japan has made a series of moves concerning the Taiwan region in the past few months. For instance, it expressed its concern with the Taiwan Strait situation in the Japan-US joint statement, which was actually an implication of its intention to jointly defend Taiwan with the US.
As the pandemic situation got more serious in Taiwan, Japanese foreign minister Toshimitsu Motegi announced at a press conference on June 4 that Japan will ship 1.24 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines to the island on that very day.
During the “two plus two” meeting between Japanese and Australian foreign and defense ministers, both sides expressed their concerns about the Taiwan Strait situation…These jaw-dropping moves by Japan are driven both by international factors, especially from the US, and Japan’s domestic problems.
菅义伟不会不知道台湾问题的复杂性和敏感性,却在此问题上一再做出惊人之举,逼近中国的底线,不啻于是一场政治豪赌。赌的是能否国内连任首相,以及两岸关系和中日关系的未来。
Yoshihide Suga knows perfectly well how complicated and sensitive the Taiwan question is, yet his administration has made one provoking move after another to challenge China’s bottom line, which is nothing short of a wild political bet – a bet on his reelection and the future of the relations across the Taiwan Strait and between China and Japan.
通过近期在台海问题上的“出位”表现,菅义伟无疑期望达到“一石三鸟”的奇效。一是在政治上和安全上保持与美国的同步。在美国对台海问题越来越深度介入的情况下,日本一再强调关注台海局势,以及表明与美国协力维持台海稳定的立场,既可以进一步强化美日同盟,又可以借美国之力弱化中国崛起对日本的冲击和影响;
二是展示菅义伟在地区重大问题上的决断力,在日本国民心中树立起强势首相的形象,进而提升民众对其的支持率;
三是不惮以引发中日纷争来转移国内视线,从而在一定程度上缓解其所面临的国内压力。据《朝日新闻》消息称,日本首相菅义伟或将提前举行大选,时间就在东京奥运会之后。这也是菅义伟在内外交困下的无奈之举。
The Japanese prime minister hopes to kill three birds with one stone with his recent unexpected actions on the Taiwan question. First, he wants to keep in step with the US politically and in security. As Washington gets increasingly involved in the Taiwan question, Japan has repeatedly emphasized its concerns with the Taiwan Strait situation and announced its stance of working with the US to jointly maintain the cross-Straits stability. This will further intensify the US-Japan alliance while leveraging Uncle Sam’s influence to counter the impacts on Japan exerted by China’s rise.
Second, Suga wants to demonstrate his decisiveness on major regional issues and establish himself as a tough prime minister in the mind of the Japanese, so as to boost his public support rating.
Third, he wants to divert the domestic pressure, even at the risk of causing disputes with China. Asahi Shimbun reported that Suga may hold the election in advance, right after the Tokyo Olympic Games, which is a choice of no choice given internal and external problems.
菅义伟在台湾问题上的一系列动作,极可能会使安倍执政末期一度出现回暖迹象的中日关系再度降温甚至直至冰点。毕竟,台湾问题涉及中国的领土主权核心利益,中国在原则问题上不可能有任何妥协的余地。
菅义伟在台湾问题上触及中国的红线,既误判了中国人民维护和实现国家统一的信心和决心,也对日方此举可能引起中日关系断崖式下滑的后果缺乏足够清醒的预判。这场非理性的政治豪赌,注定不会给菅义伟带来其所期待的结果。
Suga’s actions concerning the Taiwan question will probably send the China-Japan relations, which warmed up a little in the final days of Abe’s term, back to the freezing point. The Taiwan question concerns China’s territorial sovereignty and core interests, and China will make no compromise on matters of principle.
Stepping on the red line about the Taiwan question, Suga has underestimated the Chinese people’s confidence and resolve of maintaining and realizing national reunification, and also miscalculated the consequences of a nosediving bilateral relationship caused by his actions. His irrational and wild political bet won’t bring him what he dreams of.
（作者是中国社会科学院国际问题专家）
(The author is an expert on international studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)
