王晓鹏
By Wang Xiaopeng
2023年2月4日，东盟国家外长非正式会议在印度尼西亚首都雅加达举行。印尼外长蕾特诺在会后表示，印尼计划与中国和其他东南亚国家加紧谈判，以最终确定“南海行为准则”。
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Foreign Ministers Retreat was held in Jakarta on February 4, 2023. Retno Marsudi, foreign minister of Indonesia, said after the meeting that Indonesia plans to intensify talks with China and other Southeast Asian countries to finalize the South China Sea Code of Conduct (COC).
中国社会科学院海疆问题专家王晓鹏认为，在美国等域外国家近期频频到南海“兴风作浪”的背景下，作为今年的东盟轮值主席国的印尼主张加紧推进“南海行为准则”磋商，主是要出于两方面的目的。
Wang Xiaopeng, an expert on maritime issues of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that against the background that the US and other countries outside the region have been frequently causing troubles in the South China Sea recently, Indonesia, who holds the rotating chair of ASEAN this year, has the following two aims in stepping up consultations on the COC.
首先，中国和东盟国家有一个基本共识，就是要在全面落实《南海各方行为宣言》的基础上，制定南海行为准则。在2022年，《南海各方行为宣言》签署二十周年的时候有关各方宣布，要进一步加快南海行为准则的谈判。这就意味着，在今年把准则磋商提速，从而维护南海的和平和稳定，是各方的共同愿望。
First, China and ASEAN countries have a basic consensus, which is to formulate the South China Sea COC on the basis of fully implementing the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC). On the 20th anniversary of the signing of the DOC in 2022, relevant parties announced that they will further speed up negotiations on the COC. This means that it is the common aspiration of all parties to speed up the negotiation this year so as to maintain peace and stability in the South China Sea.
另外，印尼作为今年的东盟轮值主席国，希望发挥更加重要的引领作用。进入2023年，东盟面临着落实“东盟印太展望”、扩容吸纳东帝汶入盟、“南海行为准则”磋商等几大任务。作为东盟火车头国家的印尼，希望在其担任轮值主席国的时期内，推动这些任务取得实质性的进展。“南海行为准则”磋商，就是其中的一个关键环节。
In addition, as this year's the rotating chair of ASEAN, Indonesia hopes to play a more important leading role. In 2023, ASEAN is facing several major tasks such as implementing the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific, accession of Timor-Leste to ASEAN, and negotiating the COC. Indonesia, as the locomotive of ASEAN, hopes to make substantial progress on these tasks during its presidency. The negotiation on the COC is one of the key links.
与时同时，印尼外长这番表态的时事背景也值得注意。
At the same time, the current affairs background of the Indonesian foreign minister's statement is also worth noting.
进入2023年后，美军在南海的军事活动明显增多。其背后有三重原因。
The US military activities in the South China Sea have increased significantly in 2023 and there are three reasons behind it.
第一是战略原因，美国2022年初推出新版“印太战略”，要把印太军事部署，从概念阶段推向所谓实操阶段。而在这个过程当中，位于印太两洋结合部的南海就成为了美国强化军力动态部署的一块实验田。
The first is the strategic factor. The US launched a new version of the "Indo-Pacific Strategy" in early 2022 to push military deployment in the Indo-Pacific from the conceptual stage to the so-called practical stage. In the process, the South China Sea, located at the junction of the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean, has become an experimental field for the US to strengthen dynamic military deployment.
第二是军事同盟因素，美国目前正在对其亚太军事同盟体系进行调整。试图在这个过程当中，把日本、韩国、澳大利亚，还有个别东南亚国家，整合成一个“亚太小北约”，从而为美国的地缘利益去服务。南海问题就被美国视作是一种战略粘合剂，美国妄图通过制造南海的“军事化”，来拉拢盟友和伙伴上他的“战车”。
The second is the military alliance factor. The US is currently adjusting its Asia-Pacific military alliance system. It is trying to integrate Japan, the ROK, Australia, and some Southeast Asian countries into a mini-NATO in Asia-Pacific to serve its geopolitical interests. The South China Sea issue is regarded by the US as a kind of strategic glue. The US tries to win allies and partners into its chariot by creating the so-called militarization of the South China Sea.
第三是宣传因素，美国通过在南海的军事活动，持续展示其“印太战略”的决心。美国在进入新年以来的较短时间之内，多次派出舰机前往南海活动，就是要展示美方的一种政策方向-- 虽然俄乌冲突牵制了美国很多的注意力，但是美方仍然把“印太战略”作为其全球战略重点。
The third is the propaganda factor. The US has continued to demonstrate its determination in the "Indo-Pacific Strategy" through military activities in the South China Sea. In the relatively short period of time since the beginning of 2023, the US has sent warships and aircraft to the South China Sea many times to demonstrate a policy direction - although the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has drawn a lot of attention from the US, it still regards the "Indo-Pacific Strategy" as its global strategic focus.
基于这些原因，美国防长于2月2日访问了菲律宾。从地区安全角度来观察，此行可以说是挑拨中国与菲律宾的双边关系，离间中国与东盟国家的战略互信。但是，美国的这种目标在很大程度上并未达成。一方面，菲对美增开了4个军事基地，并没有超出美菲军事同盟关系的总体框架。菲新政府，也没有改变其大国平衡总体外交战略。美方刻意渲染这类军事合作的所谓针对性，并未起到挑拨离间的作用。另一方面，美国一系列对地区局势不富有建设性的行为，也引起了东盟有关国家的警惕。目前，东盟各国的主要目标，还是推动经济全面复苏，实现可持续发展，这就需要一个更加和平稳定的区域安全环境。所以美国破坏地区稳定的一系列举动，其实是不得人心。
For these reasons mentioned above, the US Secretary of Defense visited the Philippines on February 2. From the perspective of regional security, this visit aims to provoke the bilateral relations between China and the Philippines, as well as the strategic mutual trust between China and ASEAN countries. However, the US has largely failed to achieve this goal.
On the one hand, the Philippines opened four additional military bases to the US and the number did not go beyond the general framework of the US-Philippines military alliance. The new Philippine government has not changed its overall diplomatic strategy of balancing major powers. The US deliberately exaggerated the so-called pertinence of such military cooperation, but it did not work. On the other hand, a series of moves by the US that are not constructive to the regional situation have also aroused the vigilance of relevant ASEAN countries. At present, the main goal of ASEAN countries is to promote comprehensive economic recovery and achieve sustainable development, which requires a more peaceful and stable regional security environment. Therefore, the series of actions taken by the US to undermine regional stability are not welcomed by ASEAN countries.
Editor's note: Originally published on the website of Yangtze River News, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
