Will resumed US-Japan-ROK anti-submarine exercise accelerate formation of "trilateral alliance"?

美日韩重启反潜演习,“三边同盟”加速成形?

Source
China Military Online
Editor
Li Wei
Time
2022-10-10 17:49:31
美日韩举行联合反潜演习。The US, Japan and ROK hold the joint anti-submarine exercise.

凌云志 By Ling Yunzhi

据韩国媒体报道,美韩日三国战舰近日在距离独岛(日本称“竹岛”)150公里以外的日本海公海开展了针对朝鲜的反潜联演。此次美日韩举行反潜联演,直接目标是评估朝鲜潜射弹道导弹的实战能力,但本质上还是美国正在积极推动构建美日韩三角军事同盟,实现美国在亚太地区特别是东北亚的综合优势,使之成为应对所谓“不断扩大的中俄影响力”的前沿威慑阵地。

According to media reports of the Republic of Korea (ROK), the US, ROK and Japan recently staged joint anti-submarine exercises against the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) in waters roughly 150 kilometers from the easternmost Dokdo (known as "Takeshima" in Japan) in the East Sea. The trilateral anti-submarine exercises are designed to improve their capability to respond to increasing threats from DPRK’s submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM). However, in essence, the US is vigorously promoting the establishment of a military alliance of the US, Japan and the ROK, realizing the comprehensive advantages of the US in the Asia Pacific region, especially in Northeast Asia, and making it a deterrent position at the forefront against the so-called "expanding influence of China and Russia".

美国极力推动“三边同盟”成形

The US vigorously promoting the formation of the "trilateral alliance"

众所周知,美国为了维护在亚太地区的霸权地位,一直在亚太地区构建和拓展盟友体系。由于韩国和日本都拥有较多数量的美军事基地和驻军,地理位置也相互靠近,能最大程度方便美国实施战略围堵政策,因此成为美国亚太盟友体系的核心国家。

As we all know, the US has been building and expanding its alliance system in the Asia Pacific region as a way to maintain its hegemony over the region. Due to the multiple US military bases and garrisons stationed, and relatively close geographical locations to each other, the ROK and Japan can facilitate the US to implement its strategic containment to the maximum, and so have served as the core members of the US’ Asia Pacific alliance system.

但由于历史和现实因素,日韩两国一直存在较大的矛盾分歧难以弥合。为此,近年来美国一直推动韩国和日本和解,意图在既有的双边同盟基础上向“三边同盟”方向发展,并在其中发挥重要的纽带作用。

However, Japan and the ROK have always been at odds given both historical and realistic factors. For this, the US has been promoting the reconciliation between the ROK and Japan in recent years, intending to develop a "trilateral alliance" on the basis of existing bilateral alliances, and play an important role as a link.

此次美韩日三方举行联合反潜演习,也表明了三国的防务合作程度进一步深化。众所周知,在反潜或防空作战中,最为敏感的情报就是潜艇的声呐信号,直升机、水面作战潜艇的反潜声呐性能以及搜潜、攻潜能力等,这些信息是各国军队最为核心的机密。此次演习中,参演三方派出航母战斗群和驱逐舰,对假想敌潜艇进行探测和追击,完成了“反潜、搜潜、攻潜”的模拟对抗,同时互换相关情报并确认互操作性,这些都表明了在美国的主导下,美韩日三国的防务合作程度正在迈向一个新的高度。

The trilateral anti-submarine exercises also indicate ever-deepening defense cooperation between the three countries. As we all know, in anti-submarine or air defense operations, the sonar signals from submarines are the most sensitive information, and the sonar performance of helicopters and surface warships in anti-submarine operations, as well as their ability to search for and attack submarines, are also the core secrets of all militaries. In the exercises, the three participating parties have sent aircraft carrier strike group or destroyers to detect and chase the submarine of an imagery enemy, completing the simulated confrontation in the subjects of anti-submarine operations, search and attack of submarines, etc. They also exchanged relevant information and confirmed interoperability. All these indicate that under the leadership of the US, the defense cooperation between the US, ROK and Japan is moving to a new high.

“三边同盟”前景复杂多变

Prospect of the "trilateral alliance" is complicated and volatile

从未来发展来看,随着亚太地区安全形势的日趋复杂,美国还将进一步强化与日韩等盟友在多领域的合作,不断拉近美日韩“三边”关系,从而扩大整体打击力量规模,形成更高层次和更加有效的威慑。但是,美日韩三国在对外展示合作姿态的同时,同盟体系的复杂性、多变性和脆弱性也进一步凸显。

As the security situation over the Asia Pacific region becomes increasingly complicated, the US is sure to further strengthen its cooperation with its allies including Japan and ROK in various fields, and constantly pull the US-Japan-ROK "trilateral" relationship closer. The overall strike force is thereby to be expanded as a whole, resulting in more effective deterrent at a higher level. While, on the other hand, the complexity, volatility and vulnerability of the trilateral alliance system are further highlighted with manifested cooperation displayed.

对于这次反潜联演,韩日两国是各有盘算,存在较大的诉求差异。对于韩国来说,加强反潜能力主要是考虑到日本自卫队在冷战时积累了较强的对苏反潜作战能力,与日本合作反潜有助于应对朝鲜潜艇和潜射导弹的最新“威胁”,利用军演起到威慑朝鲜的意图。但是,由于历史积怨等原因,韩国国内反日情绪仍然高涨。在演习开始前,韩国国内就已经出现了反对的声音,特别是演习地点接近两国争议敏感地带,更是带来民众反感,认为这意味着韩国默许日本自卫队插手半岛局势,不愿与日本深化军事合作。

For the joint anti-submarine exercises, the ROK and Japan have had their own plans, with great differences in demand. As for the ROK, it intends to strengthen its own anti-submarine capability via the cooperation with Japan in anti-submarine warfare, because the Japanese Self Defense Force (JSDF) mastered strong anti-submarine combat capability against the Soviet Union during the Cold War, and such cooperation with Japan in this field will help deal with the latest "threat" posed by the DPRK’s submarines and series of missile tests. Therefore, the exercises will function to deter the DPRK.

However, due to historical grievances and other reasons, the anti-Japanese sentiment in the ROK is still high. Even before the exercises, there had been opposition voices in the ROK. In particular, the exercise location is close to the sensitive area under dispute between the two countries, and this has been more offensive to the ROK people, who believed that the ROK has acquiesced in the JSDF's involvement in the situation on Korean Peninsula. In all, the ROK people are unwilling to allow its government to deepen military cooperation with Japan.

对于日本来说,发展与韩国的关系动机要更加复杂,掺杂了服务扩军强军需要的国内政治动机,其真正目标是想借此突破“和平宪法”限制,提升自己在亚太地区的战略地位,因此,在面对韩国关切的历史问题上,依然坚持顽固立场,在改善韩日两国关系问题上日本表现得比较敷衍。例如,对于此前尹锡悦与岸田文雄的会晤,韩国方面渲染其积极意义,但日本方面却反应平淡,甚至不愿意承认这是一场正式会晤,这在一定程度上也表现了日本对于改善双边关系并不热衷。

As for Japan, more complex factors are involved in developing relations with the ROK, including its domestic political motivation for expanding and strengthening its military. In essence, it is to break through the restrictions of the Peace Constitution and improve its strategic position over the Asia Pacific region. Therefore, Japan has kept sticking to its position stubbornly in the face of historical issues of great concern to the ROK and has been rather perfunctory in improving bilateral relations. For example, the ROK has played up the positive influence of the meeting between ROK President Yoon Suk-yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, while the Japanese side responded insipidly, even unwilling to admit that it was a formal meeting. This has to a certain extent shown that Japan is not keen on improving the bilateral relations.

因此,尽管近期韩日两国高层沟通有所增加,但双方未来合作深化仍然面临较大阻力,两国关系在短期内恐怕也难有实质性突破。而更加令人担忧的是,美国政府在推动深化与韩日防务合作关系时,也未能充分考虑地区安全形势的动态变化和复杂性。随着韩美日三方军事合作的增多,朝鲜的反应也会更为激烈,从而导致半岛紧张局势轮番升级。

Therefore, despite the recent elevated high-level communications between the ROK and Japan, the deepening of bilateral cooperation in the future still faces great resistance, and it is unlikely for the bilateral relations to make substantive breakthroughs in the short term. What is even more worrying is that the US government has not taken into full account the dynamic changes and complexity of the regional security situation when promoting the deepening of defense cooperation with the ROK and Japan. With the increasing trilateral military cooperation between the ROK, the US and Japan, the DPRK side is bound to make more intense responses, which in turn tends to lead to the escalation of tension on the Korean Peninsula.

Editor's note: Originally published on thepaper.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.

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