By Chen Hong
陈弘
On September 15, 2021, then-Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and leaders of the US and UK jointly announced the establishment of AUKUS, a trilateral security partnership,in a high-profile manner. To some extent, this can be regarded as an "alliance in alliance" in the traditional American alliance system. Morrison called it a "historic opportunity " with complacency. As of now when a year has passed, what has Australia gained from the strategic alliance?
一年前的9月15日，时任澳大利亚总理莫里森同美英两国领导人共同高调宣布，三国决定组成“奥库斯”。这在某种程度上可以被视为美国传统同盟体系中的“盟中盟”。莫里森不无溢美之词地将这称为一次“历史性机遇”。如今一年过去，澳大利亚从中得到了什么？
According to the pact reached by the three countries, Australia canceled an estimated 90 billion Australian dollars (about $65 billion at that time) contracts with France for 12 conventionally-powered submarines , and instead bought eight nuclear-powered submarines capable of performing long-range missions from the UK and the US. This has been known as the "first pillar" of AUKUS. However, it is estimated that Australia may have to wait until 2040 to complete the building of its first nuclear-powered submarine according to the most optimistic estimates that the design and construction could have begun in September last year. On the one hand, Australia has to pay over 830 million Australian dollars (about $584 million at that time) in compensation to France; on the other hand, it needs to purchase the technology and equipment required for nuclear-powered submarine construction from countries such as the US and the UK at enormous costs. Even so, the Australian side is but ushering in a prospect unforeseeable.
根据三国达成的协议，澳取消购买价值900亿澳元的12艘法国常规动力潜艇的大型合同，转而向英美购买8艘能够执行远程任务的核动力潜艇。这被称为“奥库斯”的“第一支柱”。然而，据估算，即使从去年9月就开始设计并着手潜艇的制造，根据最乐观的估计，澳大利亚要建成第一艘核动力潜艇可能要等到2040年。澳大利亚一方面得向法国支付8.3亿澳元的巨额违约赔款，另一方面还需斥巨资从美英等国购买核动力潜艇所需的技术和设备。如此高昂的代价，换来的却只是一个遥遥无期的前景。
As a makeshift, Australia proposed to acquire one or two US-made Virginia-class or Los Angeles-class nuclear-powered submarines at first. But it is extremely ironic that Rear Adm. Scott Pappano of the US Navy said recently that the US submarine manufacturing capacity is limited recently, and accepting additional orders from Australia would be detrimental to its (the US) own interests.
作为权宜之计，澳大利亚方面提出可以先从美国购买一到两艘“弗吉尼亚级”或“洛杉矶级”核动力潜艇，先行入列，或者先编入美国海军舰队接受训练。但是极其讽刺的是，美国海军少将斯科特•帕帕诺近日称，目前美国的潜艇制造能力有限，额外接受来自澳大利亚的订单“将有损我们（美国）自身的利益”。
The Morrison government has failed this year's federal election, leaving the new government with such an unmanageable mess. The Australian public didn't know about AUKUS a year ago, nor now a year later. Neither the then Australian prime minister nor the newly-elected one has made a speech on this, with the AUKUS pact-related content yet to be unveiled.
莫里森政府已经在今年的大选中落败，留给新一届政府的就是这样一个难以收拾的烂摊子。对于“奥库斯”，一年前澳大利亚公众不了解，一年后依然不了解。前后两任总理没有就此发表过讲话，协议相关内容直到今天也没有公布。
As we all know, after WWII, Australia has completely stand by the US on foreign and security policies, regarding the US as its most important military ally, and willing to participate in almost every US military operation abroad at all costs. However, for Australia, the US has always been an "unreliable" friend.
众所周知，第二次世界大战后，澳大利亚奉行对美“一边倒”的外交与安全政策，视美国为最重要的军事盟友，不惜成本地参与美国几乎每一次海外军事行动。但是，对于澳大利亚来说，美国向来是一个“靠不住”的朋友。
On the other hand, the AUKUS pact does not stipulate whether the US is supposed to provide assistance when Australia's security is under direct threat. In the 1960s, when Australia saw the confrontation between Indonesia and Malaysia as a threat to itself, the Menzies government turned to the US for military support and got flatly rejected by then US President John F. Kennedy. After that, Australia has twice sought assistance from the US in the case of issues of Irian Barat and East Timor, which had also been ruthlessly rejected.
就“奥库斯”而言，它没有说明，如果澳大利亚安全受到直接威胁时，美国是否会提供援助。20世纪60年代，澳大利亚认为印度尼西亚与马来西亚之间的战争对其自身构成威胁，当时的孟席斯政府向美国求助，希望予以军事支持，却遭到时任美国总统肯尼迪的断然拒绝。之后澳也曾因西伊里安和东帝汶相关事件两度向美寻求帮助，同样遭到无情拒绝。
The Morrison government has intended to further bond Australia's future with the US hegemony strategy with the AUKUS. Australia's Defense Minister Richard Marles recently stated that Australia would get tactically integrated with its "strategic partners" including the US and the UK for coordinated operations.
莫里森政府想借“奥库斯”将澳大利亚的命运同美国的霸权战略进一步牢牢捆绑在一起。澳国防部长马勒斯近期表示，澳大利亚将同美国、英国以及其他“战略伙伴”更紧密地进行战术整合和协同行动。
Australia has always thought itself in a super-alliance with the US, but the fact is that the US guided by its egoistic foreign policy has not and will not put Australia's security and interests at the forefront. Former Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Fraser once said the US was the "most dangerous ally" to Australia. No wonder some Australian media have proposed to "reconsider the strategy of deep bond with the US" and questioned about "Can Australia relies on the US?"
堪培拉如此自以为和美国是超级同盟关系，事实却是，华盛顿在利己主义外交政策的指引下，过去不曾、将来也不会将澳大利亚的安全和利益置于重要位置。澳大利亚前总理马尔科姆•弗雷泽曾经说过，美国是澳大利亚“最危险的盟友”。难怪有澳媒不仅提出“应反思与美深度捆绑战略”，还发出犀利质问：“我们可以依靠美国吗？”
(The author is the director of the Australian Studies Center of East China Normal University)
（作者是华东师范大学澳大利亚研究中心主任）
Editor's note: This article is originally published on huanqiu.com, and is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information, ideas or opinions appearing in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
