文威入
By Wen Weiru
据日本媒体报道，8月10日，日本首相、自民党总裁岸田文雄对内阁进行改组，并同步调整自民党高层人事安排。分析人士指出，此次改组，日本防卫相等多位内阁成员被撤换，可能预示着日本防卫政策将发生变化，安倍遗留的平稳渐进式防卫政策将面临调整。
Japanese media reported that Japan’s prime minister and president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Fumio Kishida reshuffled the cabinet and the LDP leadership on August 10. Analysts said several cabinet members, including the defense minister, have been replaced, which indicates that Japan may change its defense policy by modifying the progressive approach left by Shinzo Abe.
“老安保”再度出任防卫相
Old face as new defense minister
根据日本官房长官松野博一公布的新内阁成员名单，19名内阁成员中，除5人留任外，其余14个岗位均有调整。在防卫决策领域，日本“国家安全保障会议”机制下的“安保四大臣”发生变化，除岸田文雄外，官房长官松野博一和外务大臣林芳正留任，防卫相一职改由66岁的滨田靖一出任，此次是他第二次出任防卫相。
Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno released the list of new cabinet members, according to which only five of the previous 19 members have remained. In the defense sector, three of the four members of the National Security Council (NSC) have remained, namely Fumio Kishida, Hirokazu Matsuno, and foreign minister Yoshimasa Hayashi, while 66-year-old Yasukazu Hamada was appointed the new defense minister, the second time he filled this role.
日本媒体称，滨田靖一在防卫领域经验丰富，支持岸田内阁推动的修宪、解禁集体自卫权等观点。目前，岸田内阁推动的一个重要议题是将防卫费提高至日本GDP的2%，但在内阁成员和国会议员中存在争议,而滨田靖一在党内无派阀所属，拥有良好的平衡感，有望能压制政府内嘈杂的辩论声。
According to Japanese media, Yasukazu Hamada, a seasoned defense minister, supports Fumio Kishida in modifying the Constitution of Japan and lifting the ban on collective self-defense. Now the Kishida administration is pushing to increase Japan’s defense budget to 2% of GDP, which is heatedly debated in the cabinet and the Diet, but Yasukazu, being of no faction, is well-positioned to quench the noises.
执着于挣脱战后秩序约束
Japan is obsessed with breaking through the post-WWII restrictions
分析人士指出，近年来，日本不断“小步快跑”企图挣脱战后秩序束缚，并试图构建自主军事能力。
According to analysts, Japan has been trotting to break away from the post-WWII restrictions in recent years in an attempt to develop independent military capacities.
一方面，加快制定与美国战略相配套的防卫战略，进一步强化与美国的军事同盟合作。今年年内，日本将迎来外交和安全保障领域三大战略性文件，即《国家安全保障战略》《防卫计划大纲》和《中期防卫力整备计划》的修订节点。这是岸田文雄将自身安全判断、战略意图和政治诉求法理化的一个重要步骤。届时，强化与美军事同盟关系、大幅提高防卫费、发展进攻性武装力量等内容，都将在其中得到体现。由于时间较紧，岸田文雄在外交方面留任林芳正，在防卫方面重新启用经验丰富的滨田靖一，力求强推相关目标尽快达成。
On the one hand, it has moved faster to develop a defense strategy consistent with America’s to further cement their military alliance and cooperation. Japan will issue three strategic documents on the diplomatic and security fronts this year, namely the revised National Security Strategy (NSS), National Defense Program Guidelines (NDPG) and Mid-Term Defense Program (MTDP). This is an important step where Fumio Kishida tries to codify his security judgment, strategic intention, and political pursuit into law, including strengthening the military alliance with the US, significantly increasing defense expenditure, and developing offensive armed forces. Given the limited time, he kept foreign minister Yoshimasa Hayashi and appointed the new, experienced defense minister Yasukazu Hamada in hopes of reaching his goals as soon as possible.
另一方面，通过不断渲染外部威胁，以获得国内外舆论对日本重新“掌武”的支持。岸田文雄将新内阁定性为能应对与战争和武装冲突有关的危机态势、坚决执行政策的内阁。他在内阁改组当天的记者会上表示，日本所处的“安全保障环境愈发严峻”，重申将在“5年内从根本上强化防卫能力”。不排除日本下一步以“获取对周边事态的应对自主权”为借口，催生修宪舆论氛围，制造修宪条件的可能性。
On the other hand, Japan is constantly hyping external threats, trying to gain domestic and international support for its re-development of independent military forces. Fumio defined his new cabinet as one capable of coping with crises related to warfare and armed conflicts and resolutely implementing the government’s policies. He said at the press conference on the very day of the cabinet reshuffling that Japan is in an increasingly serious security environment, and reiterated his plan to fundamentally enhance Japan’s defensive capability in five years. We cannot rule out the possibility that the country, under the excuse of “developing capacities to independently respond to surrounding situations”, may pave the way for revising the Constitution of Japan by manipulating public opinions.
值得注意的是，在不久前结束的日本第26届国会参议院选举中，自民党和公明党组成的执政联盟获得超过半数席位。加上未改选的70个议席，执政联盟在参议院席位达146席。修宪势力在参议院获得超过2/3的多数议席，已突破修宪动议所需门槛。
It’s worth noting that the LDP-Komeito coalition bagged over half seats at the 26th House of Councillors election held not long ago, driving their total seats to 146 taking into account the 70 unchanged ones. As a result, the pro-Constitutional modification forces had more than 2/3 of the seats in the House of Councillors, enough to move a motion for the modification.
总的来看，内阁改组是岸田文雄构建后安倍时代执政风格的具体体现。未来岸田防卫体制走向如何，是否会进一步随美起舞，还需进一步观察。
In general, reshuffling the cabinet is Fumio Kishida’s way of building his own governance style in the post-Abe era. Where his defense policy is heading and whether it will continue to dance to America’s tune is still to be seen.
