李蓉
By Li Rong
北约秘书长斯托尔滕贝格近日再次向中国“泼脏水”，然而，“威胁论”的说辞用在北约自身倒是最合适不过。与其造谣抹黑，斯托尔滕贝格更该做的是，反省北约在俄乌冲突中扮演的角色，反思谁才是地区和世界安全的威胁。
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg again splashed dirty water at China recently. However, the rhetoric of "threat theory" is most appropriate in NATO itself. Instead of spreading rumors and smearing, what Stoltenberg should do is reflecting on the role of NATO in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and who is the real threat to regional and global security.
北约背弃承诺一再东扩是俄乌冲突肇始的首要因素。北约是冷战的产物，冷战结束后不少人质疑北约继续存在的必要性，北约也曾在20世纪90年代承诺“一英寸都不会向东扩张”。然而在美国主导下，北约在1999年后先后五次东扩，成员国从16个增加到30个，向东推进1000多公里，直抵俄罗斯边境。
NATO’s broken promise and repeated eastward expansion is the primary factor in the initiation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. NATO is a product of the Cold War and many people questioned the necessity of NATO's continued existence after the end of the Cold War. NATO also promised in the 1990s that it would not expand eastward by an inch. However, under the leadership of the US, NATO has expanded eastward five times since 1999. The number of its member states has increased from 16 to 30, and it has advanced more than 1,000 kilometers eastward all the way to the Russian border.
多年来，不少外交政策专家一直警告北约不要东扩，认为这将造成地缘政治紧张，威胁地区安全。冲突升级前，俄罗斯曾数度向美国和北约“交底”“划红线”，美国前国会议员加巴德曾表示，美方只要保证不接纳乌克兰加入北约，就可以结束此次危机，阻止爆发战争，但美国政府不这么做。
For years, many foreign policy experts have warned against NATO's eastward expansion, arguing that it would create geopolitical tensions and threaten regional security. Before the escalation of the conflict with Ukraine, Russia had repeatedly drawn the line to the US and NATO. Former US Congressman Tulsi Gabbard once said that the US can very easily prevent a war with Russia by guaranteeing that Ukraine will not become a member of NATO. However, the US government did not do that.
俄乌冲突升级后，北约非但不反思东扩危害，反而持续挑动军事对抗。北约在欧洲东部增加防务部署，同时通过对乌武器援助加剧紧张局势，让战火烧得更旺更持久。斯托尔滕贝格日前在北约外长会期间说，他认为战事将持续“许多个月甚至数年”，他呼吁北约“维持制裁，加强防御和威慑”，并为乌克兰提供更多武器。
After the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, NATO continued to instigate military confrontation instead of reflecting on the harm of its eastward expansion. NATO has increased its defense deployment in Eastern Europe while raising tensions with weapons aid to Ukraine. It has made the war flame more protracted. Stoltenberg said during NATO foreign ministers' meeting that he believed the war would last "for many months or even years" and called on NATO to "maintain sustain sanctions, strengthen defense and deterrence" and provide Ukraine with more weapons.
北约各国对美国亦步亦趋，加强打造“反俄阵线”，实际维护的是美国霸权利益。长年以来，美欧对北约定位不同。美国将北约视为维护自身霸权的武器，更多是出于进攻性目的的“矛”；而欧洲将北约视为保证自身安全的屏障，更多是出于防御性目的的“盾”。前些年美欧因防务负担吵得不可开交，而今很多“恐慌”的欧洲国家自愿表示将提高军费开支。这表明美国利用俄乌冲突成功裹挟了欧洲，将北约真正变成维护其霸权的“矛”。对美国而言，北约东扩不仅为美国军工企业创造了赚钱良机，更是进一步巩固了美国对欧洲的制约，服务了美国经营的地缘战略“大棋局”。
NATO member states have followed the steps of the US and strengthened the establishment of an "anti-Russian front", which actually safeguards the hegemonic interests of the US. For many years, the US and Europe have positioned NATO differently. The US regards NATO as a weapon to maintain its hegemony and more as a "spear" for offensive purposes. Europe regards NATO as a barrier to ensure its own security and more as a "shield" for defensive purposes. The US and Europe quarreled with each other over the burden of defense a few years ago, and now many European countries have voluntarily expressed that they will increase military spending. This indicates that the US has successfully used the conflict between Russia and Ukraine to coerce Europe and turned NATO into a "spear" for safeguarding its hegemony. For the US, the eastward expansion of NATO has not only created a good opportunity for the US military industry to make money, but also further consolidated the US's constraints on Europe and served the geostrategic game played by the US.
北约东扩引发分裂动荡，损害了世界人民利益。北约东扩酿成的战争和制裁恶果，导致能源、粮食价格飙升，全球产业链安全也面临严重挑战。欧洲首当其冲，不仅面临资金外流、能源短缺和物价飙升，大量逃难的乌克兰人涌入，也让欧洲真金白银地为冲突埋单。对整个世界而言，战争和制裁造成的负面影响更是难以估量，资源和粮食价格上涨引起的高通胀，将让本就受到新冠疫情冲击的世界经济雪上加霜。国际货币基金组织总裁格奥尔基耶娃警告，迟迟未能从新冠疫情中恢复过来的国家“很可能陷入经济衰退”。
NATO's eastward expansion has caused division and turmoil, which has harmed the interests of the people of the world. The war and sanctions caused by NATO's eastward expansion have led to soaring energy and food prices, and the security of the global industrial chain is also facing serious challenges. Europe bears the brunt as it faces capital outflows, energy shortages and soaring prices, as well as the influx of Ukrainians who have fled their home country. This has also made Europe pay for the conflict with real money. For the whole world, the negative impact of wars and sanctions is even more incalculable. High inflation caused by rising resource and food prices will make the global economy, which was already hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, even worse. International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that countries still struggling with the COVID-19 pandemic "face the risk of recession".
有乌克兰官员曾说，北约“给我们武器，我们牺牲生命”，“交易很公平”。但这一所谓“公平”的交易，导致大量生命逝去，无数家庭流离失所，世界经济发展机遇消逝，更多人因此陷入困顿。面对如此种种，世人应擦亮眼睛，看清北约“东扩牌”的贻害无穷。
A Ukrainian official once said that "NATO gives us arms and we sacrifice our lives" and that "it is a fair deal". However, this so-called "fair" deal has led to the loss of a large number of lives, the displacement of countless families, the disappearance of opportunities for world economic development, and more people will get into trouble. Everything considered, the world should keep its eyes open to see the endless harm of NATO's eastward expansion.
Editor’s Note: This article is originally published by Xinhua News Agency, and is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information, ideas or opinions appearing in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
