By Wang Shuo
王朔
The tension in Ukraine continues to rise. While the US increased its troops to Eastern Europe, European countries launched intensive diplomatic mediation. Among them, France is particularly active. President Emmanuel Macron visited Russia on February 7 to hold talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin and became the first Western head of state to visit Moscow since the end of last year. Then, Macron visited Kyiv. As the current presidency of the Council of the EU, can France resolve the military confrontation crisis between Russia and Ukraine?
乌克兰局势持续紧张发酵，在美国向东欧增兵的同时，欧洲国家则展开了密集的外交斡旋。其中，法国表现得尤为活跃，总统马克龙7日到访俄罗斯与普京总统举行会谈，成为自去年底以来第一位到访莫斯科的西方国家元首；随后，他又马不停蹄地前往基辅访问。作为目前欧盟的轮值主席国，法国能化解俄乌军事对峙危机吗？
Europe and the US have some differences on the Ukraine issue. As a part of the Western camp, although Europe mostly follows the US, they have different fundamental interests. Although Europe hopes to maintain some pressure on Russia, it hopes to restart the "Normandy format " and ease the situation in a peaceful way for its own security. Of course, Macron has many considerations for being so proactive on this issue.
在乌克兰问题上，欧美是存在一定分歧的。欧洲作为西方阵营的一部分，虽然在很大程度上是追随美国的，但双方的根本利益又有不同。欧洲虽希望对俄保持一定压力，但出于自身的安全，更希望重启“诺曼底模式”，以和平方式缓和局势。当然，马克龙在这个问题上之所以如此主动，也有诸多考量在里面。
France will have a new presidential election in April this year. Although Macron is generally favored by the outside world, he still faces pressures. Macron came to power in the name of reform that is both the goal of his governance and the foundation of legitimacy. However, both strong social inertia and the sudden COVID-19 pandemic have seriously hindered and put on hold Macron's reform. The biggest challenge in Macron's re-election is not the challenge from the right, especially the far right, but how to persuade the people who have high expectations to vote for him again.
今年4月法国将迎来新一届总统大选，马克龙虽被外界普遍看好，但并非没有压力。当初马克龙是以改革的名义才得以上台的，改革既是他执政的目标，也是合法性的根基。然而，无论是强大的社会惯性，还是突发的新冠疫情，都让马克龙的改革严重受阻，不得不暂时搁置。马克龙连任的最大困难并非来自右翼尤其是极右翼的挑战，而是如何说服那些寄予期望的民众再次投票给他。
Charles de Gaulle's insistence on independence, maintaining France's status as a major power, and resisting American control has been deeply affecting France's foreign policy. Therefore, although France is a member of the alliance system under the leadership of the US, it has always maintained a certain degree of independence and advocated the formulation of foreign policies based on its own interests. The French people with a major power complex, have a high degree of acceptance of their president's diplomatic achievements. Macron, who regards "rejuvenating France's status as a great power" as his mission, will not miss such an opportunity.
当年戴高乐坚持独立自主、维护法国大国地位、对抗美国控制等主张一直深刻地影响着法国的对外政策。所以，法国虽然是美国领导下的联盟体系中的一员，但始终在某种程度上保持着特立独行，倡导从自身利益出发制定外交政策。素有大国情结的法国民众对总统的外交成就有很高的接受度，而将“重振法国大国地位”视为自己使命的马克龙，当然不会错过这样的抓手。
It is because of the difficulty in advancing internal reforms that Macron is more eager to show his diplomatic capability and win the support of the public. Of course, Macron's strategic direction is right, and he hopes to use the diplomatic mediation on the Ukraine issue to show his image. However, it is hard to say what kind of results can be achieved.
正因为现在内部改革推进艰难，马克龙更急于展现自己的外交能力，赢得民意支持。当然，马克龙的策略方向是对的，希望借乌克兰问题的外交斡旋展示形象，但能取得什么样的成果并不好说。
First, neither France nor Europe is the decisive factor in the Ukraine crisis, nor do they have the key to solving the problem.
首先，法国乃至欧洲都不是乌克兰危机中的决定因素，解决问题的钥匙也不在自己手中。
Second, Europe is not united. Although Macron is hailed as the "last European president" by the outside world, there are doubts about him within the EU as they believe that he represents French-style "selfishness" and "adventurous progress". In particular, some Central and Eastern European countries expect the US-led NATO to provide security guarantees, and they are not optimistic about the strategic autonomy advocated by Macron. The new German government's support for Macron will also be very limited.
其次，欧洲内部并非铁板一块。虽然马克龙被外界誉为“最后一任欧洲总统”，但在欧盟内部对其是存在质疑的，认为他代表着法式的“自私”和“冒进”。尤其是部分中东欧国家更期望美国领导的北约提供安全保障，不看好马克龙推崇的战略自主，德国新政府对马克龙的支持也将十分有限。
Third, whether Macron can be re-elected is still in suspense. The latest polls show that Macron's approval rate is around 24%, and the Economist magazine estimates his chance of re-election is 79% on a model. But Macron is not without worries. He faces a highly divided French society with a modest edge over other candidates. Therefore, whether it is public or private, Macron needs to make a difference in the short term and deliver significant results. Although he cannot convince the US and Russia, at least he is trying to help solve the issue.
再次，马克龙能否连任仍有悬念。最新民调显示，马克龙的支持率在24%左右，《经济学人》杂志依据模型推算其连任的概率为79%。但马克龙并非高枕无忧，他面临的是一个高度分裂的法国社会，其领先其他候选人的优势也并不大。因此，无论于公于私，马克龙都需要在短期内有所作为，拿出有分量的成绩，虽然他无法说服美俄，但至少从趋势上看，是给问题的解决在做加法。
(The author is a professor at the School of International Relations and Diplomacy, Beijing Foreign Studies University)
（作者是北京外国语大学国际关系学院教授）
Editor's note: This article is originally published on huanqiu.com, and is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information, ideas or opinions appearing in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
