Military aid supplies provided by the US to Ukraine (file photo)
Military aid supplies provided by the US to Ukraine (file photo)
■林源
By Lin Yuan
近期，乌克兰和俄罗斯的关系加速恶化，双方分别向两国接壤的边境地区增派重兵。美国等西方国家渲染称，俄方可能“入侵”乌克兰。而在乌克兰问题上，北约各国采取的应对方式步调不一，北约深层次的内部矛盾因此凸显。未来，有关各方或将围绕乌克兰局势展开更激烈的博弈。
The relation between Ukraine and Russia has worsened at a quicker pace recently with both countries sending massive forces to the border. The US-led western countries claimed Russia might “invade” Ukraine, but NATO members have failed to reach a united stance on the issue, which exposes the bloc’s deep-seated conflicts. A more heated struggle around the Ukraine situation may be on the horizon among the relevant parties.
其一，美国难控局。虽然美国高层近期频繁向俄罗斯放狠话，但美国国务卿布林肯表示，美国不会立即对俄罗斯实施制裁，此举“为时尚早”。拜登此前表示，不会派遣美国军队进入乌克兰，如果北约盟国根据北约宪章第五条集体防御条款发动攻击，美国对北约盟国负有道义上和法律上的义务，但该义务并不适用于乌克兰。分析认为，如果乌克兰局势持续恶化，美国不排除重演“喀布尔时刻”，在关键时刻放弃对乌克兰的防务承诺。
For one thing, it’s hard for the US to control the Ukraine situation. Although US top officials have kept talking tough to Russia lately, US Secretary of State Blinken made it clear that it was still too early for the US to impose an immediate sanction on Russia. Biden previously said he wouldn’t assign American troops to Ukraine. If a NATO ally launches an attack according to Article 5 – collective defense – of the NATO Treaty, the US bears a moral and legal obligation to it, but such obligation doesn’t apply to Ukraine. Analysts said if the situation in Ukraine keeps deteriorating, it’s not impossible that the US might repeat the “Kabul moment” and go back on its defense commitment to Ukraine at the critical juncture.
其二，欧洲难聚合。目前，围绕俄乌冲突，德法两国希望依托“诺曼底模式”进行和谈。德国外交部长贝尔伯克表示，德国已经了解到俄罗斯要求安全保障的意愿，并准备好就联合协议进行对话。爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚和立陶宛等国则希望持续强化乌克兰的防务能力，以有效应对俄罗斯的“军事威胁”。英国《卫报》评论称，欧盟27国虽然一致表示，如果俄方采取“侵略”行动，将面临严重的经济和外交后果，但各成员国对发起制裁的条件与形式存在分歧。围绕乌克兰问题，欧洲各国的裂痕或将进一步加剧。
Second, it’s hard for Europe to form a united front. At present, Germany and France hope to negotiate the Russia-Ukraine conflict in a “Normandy style”. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said Berlin is aware of Russia’s demand for a security guarantee and is ready to have a dialogue on a joint agreement. Other countries, including Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, hope to see Ukraine’s defense capability continuously intensified in order to effectively cope with “military threats” from Moscow. The Guardian commented that although all 27 EU members threatened Russia with serious economic and diplomatic consequences if it took “invasive” actions, they were divided over the conditions and forms of sanctions, and the rift among European countries regarding the Ukraine issue might widen further.
其三，冲突难避免。西方媒体普遍认为，在各方斡旋下，俄罗斯对乌克兰大规模动武的可能性相对较低，但在乌克兰近期频繁向西方示好，并向俄罗斯发起挑衅举动的背景下，不排除俄罗斯未来对乌遂行小规模、低烈度的军事行动。有关动向值得持续关注。
Third, it’s hard to avoid a conflict. Western media generally believed that a massive military action by Russia against Ukraine is unlikely given the mediation by various parties, but small-scale, low-intensity military actions cannot be excluded as Ukraine has been making frequent overtures to the West recently while provoking Russia. Their movements are worth close monitoring.
