陈航辉
By Chen Hanghui
当前，百年变局与世纪疫情交织叠加，国际安全环境面临的不稳定性、不确定性显著上升。在这样的时代背景下，俄、美、英、法、德、印等主要大国纷纷加速推进军事转型，围绕关键领域重点发力。2022年，或将成为大国军事博弈更趋激烈的一年。
Under major changes and a pandemic both unseen in a century, the instability and uncertainty faced by the international security environment have risen significantly. Against this backdrop, major powers such as Russia, the US, the UK, France, Germany, and India have accelerated their military transformation while focusing on key areas. 2022 may become a year in which the military game between major powers becomes more intense.
战略武器获优先发展
Strategic weapons as the priority
大国军事博弈首先是对战略主导权的争夺，而核武器对于塑造战略态势的重要性不言而喻。2022年，核军备领域仍将是俄美等大国军事角力的重点，高超声速武器将成为大国军事技术竞争的焦点。
The military game among major powers is first and foremost a fight for strategic dominance, and the importance of nuclear weapons in shaping the strategic situation is self-evident. Nuclear arms race will remain the focus of military competition between Russia and the US and other major powers in 2022, and hypersonic weapons will become the focus of military technological competition among major powers.
当今大国之间的核军备竞争将更注重武器质量上的突破。2022年，美国将投入278亿美元用于核武器项目，计划采购哥伦比亚级战略核潜艇，升级核指控、通信和预警系统；俄罗斯则将列装1艘北风之神-A级核潜艇和2架图-160M战略轰炸机，装备21套新型弹道导弹系统，战略核武库现代化水平有望超过90%。英国、法国今年也将按计划加强核军备建设，或是研制新型战略核潜艇，或是扩充核弹头数量，或是试射新型弹道导弹，力求以这些举措进一步强化自身核力量。
Today's nuclear arms race among major powers will focus more on breakthroughs in weapon quality. The US will invest USD 27.8 billion in nuclear weapons projects in 2022. It plans to purchase Columbia-class strategic nuclear-powered submarines, and upgrade nuclear command and control, communication and early warning systems. Russia will commission one Borei-A-class nuclear-powered submarine, two Tu-160M strategic bombers and 21 sets of new ballistic missile systems. And the modernization level of its strategic nuclear arsenal is expected to exceed 90 percent. The UK and France will also strengthen their nuclear armament construction this year. Through measures such as developing new strategic nuclear-powered submarines, expanding the number of nuclear warheads, or testing new ballistic missiles, they strive to further strengthen their nuclear forces.
作为高超声速武器技术的领跑者，俄罗斯今年将列装“锆石”海基高超声速巡航导弹，继续研发新型高超声速导弹。美国今年计划投入38亿美元发展高超声速武器，以期实现对俄罗斯的追赶。法国、英国、日本也都在推进高超声速武器的研发工作。
As a leader in hypersonic weapon technology, Russia will commission the Zircon sea-based hypersonic cruise missiles this year and continue to develop new hypersonic missiles. The US will invest USD 3.8 billion this year in the development of hypersonic weapons to catch up with Russia. France, the UK, and Japan are also advancing the research and development of hypersonic weapons.
常规力量升级换代加速
Upgrade of conventional equipment accelerated
大国军事博弈的立足点是打赢现代战争，而保持常规武器装备的领先优势是打赢现代战争的重要前提。2022年，俄美等大国纷纷加速推进主战装备的升级换代。
The foothold of the military game between major powers is to win modern wars and maintaining the leading edge of conventional weapons and equipment is an important prerequisite for winning. Major powers such as Russia and the US will accelerate the upgrading of main battle equipment in 2022.
美国将武器装备升级的重点领域放在海军和空军。美海军将按计划加快福特级航母、弗吉尼亚级核潜艇、F-15EX战机等武器装备的升级列装，构建以新型航母平台和五代机为核心的海空高端装备体系；俄军装备升级则全面开花，陆军有望列装更多T-14坦克，海军将接收16艘大型战斗舰艇，空天军和海军将接收200余架新型或改进型飞机；英国将加快装备新一代“拳师犬”装甲车，印度将继续推进其首艘国产航母的实战部署，日本则会继续采购F-35B战机并升级准航母“出云”号。
The US will focus on the upgrading of weapons and equipment in the Navy and Air Force. The US Navy will speed up the upgrade and commissioning of weapons and equipment such as Ford-class aircraft carriers, Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines, and F-15EX fighters as planned, and build a high-end sea and air equipment system featuring new aircraft carrier platforms and fifth-generation fighter jets. Russian military equipment upgrades are in full bloom as its army is expected to commission more T-14 tanks, the navy will have 16 large warships, the aerospace force and the navy will receive more than 200 new or improved aircraft. The UK will speed up the commissioning of a new generation of Boxer armored vehicles. India will continue to promote the actual combat deployment of its first domestic aircraft carrier. And Japan will continue to purchase F-35B fighter jets and upgrade the quasi-aircraft carrier Izumo.
在电磁频谱领域，美军今年的建设重点是推进空军的“怪兽”电子战项目和海军的“低波段干扰机”项目，并通过演习进一步优化电子战流程；俄军将接收“田野-21”“史诗”等新型电子战装备，提升电子战系统的自动化水平；英军将升级45型驱逐舰和26、31型两型护卫舰的电子战系统，日本自卫队将继续推动新成立的“第301电子战中队”形成战斗力。
In the field of the electromagnetic spectrum, the US military's focus this year is to promote the Air Force's Project Kaiju electronic warfare project and the Navy's next generation jammer low band (NGJ-LB) program, and further optimize the electronic warfare process through exercises. Russia will receive Pole-21, Krasukha and other new electronic warfare systems to improve the automation level of electronic warfare systems. The UK will upgrade the electronic warfare systems of the Type 45 destroyers and the Type 26 and Type 31 frigates. The Japanese Self-Defense Forces will continue to promote the newly established 301st Electronic Warfare Company to form combat power.
重视发展智能技术和无人装备
Featured development of intelligent technology and unmanned equipment
当今时代，新一轮世界科技革命、军事革命加速发展，战争形态加速向智能化演变。为了打赢未来战争，俄美等大国纷纷加大科研投入，研究智能技术，发展无人装备，探索人机协同战法。
A new round of scientific, technological and military revolution is developing rapidly around the world, and warfare is rapidly evolving towards the intelligentized form. In order to win future wars, Russia, the US and other major countries have increased investment in scientific research, focusing on intelligent technology, unmanned equipment, and human-machine coordinated tactics.
今年，美军计划投入8.74亿美元研发专款，推动智能技术在情报、指控、后勤、网络防御等领域的应用。俄军目前在研的人工智能项目超过150个，今年将重点推进为不同武器平台适配智能软件，实现战斗力倍增。法国、英国、印度等国军队也纷纷加强人工智能技术的研究，试图将这一技术更广泛地应用于情报侦察、辅助决策和网络安全等领域。
The US military plans to invest USD 874 million in research and development funds this year to promote the application of intelligent technology in information, command and control, logistics, network defense and other fields. Russia is currently working on more than 150 artificial intelligence (AI) projects. This year, it will focus on adapting intelligent software for different weapon platforms to enhance its combat effectiveness. France, the UK, India and other countries have also strengthened the research on AI technologies and tried to apply them widely in the fields of intelligence reconnaissance, auxiliary decision-making and network security.
在人机协同作战领域，美军最早开始探索，具有一定的先发优势。今年，美军计划组织首次连级无人装甲部队作战试验，探索五代机与无人侦察机、无人机群协同作战的方法，推动有人舰艇与无人舰艇协同执行侦察、反潜、扫雷等任务。俄军今年在继续推进无人机、无人车辆体系化建设的同时，将推动无人装备尽快融入有人作战体系。此外，法军、英军也正在积极探索城市作战等军事行动中的人机协同战法。
The US is the first to explore and has a certain advantage in the field of human-machine coordinated operations. The US plans to organize the first combat test of company-level unmanned armored forces, explore ways for fifth-generation fighter jets to coordinate with unmanned reconnaissance aircraft and drone swarms, and promote the coordinated reconnaissance, anti-submarine, and mine-sweeping tasks between manned and unmanned warships. Russia will promote the integration of unmanned equipment into the manned combat systems as soon as possible while continuing to promote the systematic construction of drones and unmanned vehicles. In addition, France and the UK are also actively exploring human-machine coordinated tactics in military operations such as urban ones.
