黄河 邓仙来
By Huang He and Deng Xianlai
俄罗斯与美国10日在瑞士日内瓦举行新一轮战略稳定对话，从会后双方释放的信息可以看出，这次对话没有取得任何实质性进展。
Russia and the US started a new round of strategic stability dialogue in Geneva, Switzerland on January 10. It can be seen that there is no substantial progress based on the information released by the two sides after the meeting.
分析人士认为，这次对话能够举行，说明俄罗斯有意愿与以美国为首的西方国家建立更长远的安全合作架构。对话难以取得进展的症结在于，美国未能积极回应俄罗斯提出的一系列安全关切。若无法有效解决这些问题，未来俄美对话前景同样难言乐观。
Analysts believe that the hosting of this dialogue indicates that Russia is willing to establish a longer-term security cooperation architecture with Western countries led by the US. The reason why it is difficult to make progress in the dialogue is that the US has failed to respond positively to a series of security concerns raised by Russia. The prospects for the future Russia-US dialogue can hardly be optimistic if these problems cannot be effectively resolved.
对话共识难觅
Hard to reach consensus
俄罗斯外交部副部长里亚布科夫在对话结束后介绍情况时表示，北约在法律层面保证不再东扩、不在俄边境部署打击性武器、北约将军力部署恢复至1997年俄与北约签署基本关系文件时的状态，这是俄方最核心的安全关切，但俄不认为美方愿意在这些关键问题上做出令人满意的决定。
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said after the dialogue that Russia's core security concerns lay in NATO's promise not to expand further East, not to deploy strike weapons on the Russian border, and to restore NATO's military deployment to the state when Russia and NATO signed the NATO-Russia Founding Act in 1997. However, Russia didn't think the US is willing to make satisfactory decisions on these key issues.
美方率团参与对话的常务副国务卿舍曼会后表示，美方在对话中“断然拒绝”了俄方提出的一系列安全提议，包括要求北约不得吸收乌克兰为成员、终止与乌方安全合作等，相关提议有悖于北约的“开放门户”政策。她还指出，美国欢迎通过外交途径解决乌克兰问题，但只有在俄罗斯采取切实措施降低俄乌边境紧张局势的条件下，乌克兰问题的解决才能取得实质进展。
US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy R. Sherman, head of the US delegation, said after the dialogue that the US rejected a series of security proposals put forward by Russia, including the requirement that NATO not admit Ukraine as a member state and terminate security cooperation with Ukraine as the relevant proposals are contrary to NATO's "Open Door" policy. She also pointed out that the US welcomes a diplomatic solution to the Ukrainian issue, but only when Russia takes concrete steps to reduce tensions on the Russian-Ukrainian border can the Ukrainian issue make real progress.
《全球政治中的俄罗斯》杂志主编卢基扬诺夫撰文指出，俄美安全对话没有取得突破，双方在谈判思路上存在根本性差别。美国希望将安全对话的重点从政治问题转向军事技术领域。俄方则坚持在政治层面展开对话，包括围绕安全原则和冷战后欧洲安全架构等问题进行讨论。俄方认为应首先在政治领域达成新的基本协议，然后才能开展军事技术层面的具体磋商。
Fyodor A. Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of Russia in Global Affairs magazine, said that no breakthrough has been made in the Russia-US security dialogue because there are fundamental differences in the negotiation thinking between the two sides. The US wants to shift the focus of security talks from political issues to military technologies while Russia insists on keeping dialogues at the political level, including discussions on security principles and the post-Cold War European security architecture. Russia believes that a new basic agreement should be reached in the political field first, and then specific consultations at the military and technical level can be carried out.
前景不容乐观
Prospects not promising
按照计划，俄罗斯将在本周内先后与美国、北约和欧洲安全与合作组织（欧安组织）举行对话。舆论普遍认为，此次的俄美安全对话最为关键，将为接下来的两场对话定下基调。俄与北约对话可视为俄美对话的扩大版，俄与欧安组织对话则是在更大范围探讨欧洲未来的安全前景。
According to the plan, Russia will hold talks with the US, NATO and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) respectively this week. Public opinions generally believe that the Russia-US security dialogue is the most critical one and will set the tone for the next two dialogues. The Russia-NATO dialogue can be regarded as an expanded version of the Russia-US security dialogue, while the Russia-OSCE dialogue aims to discuss the future security prospects of Europe on a larger scale.
分析人士指出，此次对话有助于稳定俄美关系，但俄与美国等西方国家长期缺乏战略互信，多重因素令俄西矛盾难以得到根本改善。尽管各方正在密集展开对话，但短期内矛盾恐难化解，各方政治博弈将持续。
Analysts pointed out that this dialogue will help stabilize Russia-US relations. However, due to the lack of strategic mutual trust between Russia and Western countries, as well as multiple factors, it is difficult to fundamentally improve the conflict between Russia and Western countries. Although the parties are conducting intensive dialogues, it is difficult to solve the contradictions in the short term, and the political game between them will continue.
一方面，西方国家内部对俄态度不一。俄罗斯国际事务理事会项目主任季莫费耶夫表示，参与谈判各方的立场各不相同且难以协调，谈判进程或将非常艰难。围绕欧洲安全问题的谈判将是一个漫长的过程，不可能一蹴而就。
On the one hand, Western countries have different attitudes towards Russia. Ivan Timofeev, director of programs at the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), said that the positions of the parties involved in the dialogue are different and difficult to coordinate, and the dialogue process may be very difficult. Negotiations on European security issues will be a long process and cannot be done overnight.
另一方面，美国国内政治分歧导致美国难以与俄罗斯就安全问题达成一致。美国哈密尔顿学院教授艾伦•卡夫鲁尼表示，美国国内不稳定的政治局势实际上束缚了美国政府手脚，给其外交活动留下了非常有限的空间。即便美国政府代表团同意与俄罗斯缔结安全保障协议并说服其盟友也参与其中，这份文件也无法得到美国国会参议院的批准。
On the other hand, domestic political differences in the US also make it difficult for the US to reach an agreement with Russia on security issues. Alan Cafruny, professor at Hamilton College in the US, said that the unstable political situation in the US actually leaves very limited space for its diplomatic activities. Even if a US government delegation agrees to a security deal with Russia and persuades its allies to get involved, the document could not be approved by the US Senate.
中国社会科学院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所研究员李勇慧认为，俄与西方关系的核心仍然是俄美关系。如果俄美间根本性矛盾不能通过对话谈判解决，双方关系很难发生实质性改善。
Li Yonghui, a senior researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that the core of Russia-West relations is still Russia-US relations. If the fundamental contradiction between Russia and the US cannot be resolved through dialogue and negotiation, it will be difficult to improve the relations substantially.
俄罗斯政治信息中心主任穆欣说，美国需要与俄达成安全协议，但不可能像俄方希望的那样尽快给出明确答复，因为那意味着美国需要放弃舆论过渡期而立即公开地“屈服于”俄方要求。
Alexey Mukhin, director general of the Centre for Political Information of Russia, said that the US needs to reach a security agreement with Russia, but it will not give a clear answer as soon as the Russian side hopes, because that means the US needs to give up the transition period of public opinion and immediately "succumb to" Russia's request openly.
