郑继永
By Zheng Jiyong
2021年的朝鲜半岛，出现了与过去不同的两个极端，一是内部的关联性越来越大，二是受外部的影响越来越大。受其影响，朝鲜半岛出现了无战、无和、少互动的明显特征，半岛问题的主导权、主动权、主体性之争更加激烈。
The Korean Peninsula showed two extremes that are different from the past in 2021: the increasing internal correlation, and the increasing external influence. Affected by them, there has been the obvious characteristics of no war, no peace, and little interaction on the Korean Peninsula, and the struggle for dominance, initiative and subjectivity has become more intense.
推动终战宣言落地，是文在寅政府2021年的外交重头戏。在东北亚命运共同体中，任何一方都不可能被孤立开来讨论和平、稳定与发展，终战宣言是让朝鲜融入国际社会的重要开端，不可或缺。这一问题能否取得进展，取决于四方的态度。
Promoting the implementation of the end-of-war declaration is the main diplomatic highlight of the Moon Jae-in administration in 2021. In the Northeast Asian community with a shared future, it is impossible to isolate any party to discuss peace, stability and development. The end-of-war declaration is an important beginning and indispensable part of integrating the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) into the international community. The progress on this issue depends on the attitude of the four parties.
（一）朝鲜的态度。早在2018年板门店南北首脑会谈时，金正恩声称，如果能够确保互不侵犯，则无需拥有核武器，并提出了包括终战宣言在内的实现半岛和平的两个条件：一是美国放弃对朝敌视态度。美国动辄制裁与威胁，再三违反承诺和协议，其根本原因就是美国的敌视态度。二是不对朝搞双重标准。朝鲜半岛的安全威胁螺旋上升，美朝都有责任，但美国不能将朝鲜加强安全的行为视为挑衅行为，而将军演等行为视为防御措施。
(1) The attitude of the DPRK. During the 2018 inter-Korean summit in Panmunjom, Kim Jong-un claimed that there is no need to have nuclear weapons if mutual non-aggression can be guaranteed and proposed two conditions for achieving peace on the peninsula, including the end-of-war declaration. First, the US should give up its hostility to the DPRK. The US repeatedly sanctioned and threatened the DPRK, and repeatedly violated its commitments and agreements. The fundamental reason is the hostile attitude of the US. Second, the US should abandon double standards on the DPRK. Security threats on the Korean Peninsula are spiraling upwards, and both the US and the DPRK are responsible. However, the US cannot regard the DPRK's security enhancements as provocative actions while regard its own military drills and other actions as defensive measures.
然而，到目前为止，朝鲜提出的两个条件，美国完全无视，而韩国文在寅政府也因没有主导权，不可能说服美国，更不可能说服朝鲜。因此，虽然韩国政府多方呼吁签署终战宣言，甚至提出可以搞一个政治性的宣言来终止朝鲜半岛上的战争状态，但朝鲜却视之为空洞无物之举，一个没有美国实质性认可的终战宣言没有意义。
However, the US has completely ignored the two conditions put forward by the DPRK. The Moon Jae-in administration has no dominance, so it is impossible to persuade the US nor the DPRK. Although the Republic of Korea (ROK) government has called for the signing of the end-of-war declaration, and even proposed a political declaration to end the state of war on the Korean Peninsula, the DPRK regards it as an empty act because an end-of-war declaration without the substantive recognition of the US doesn't make sense.
（二）韩国的立场。韩国最为积极，一是文在寅政府视之为最重要的政治遗产，加上2018年和平之春的发酵效应，韩国政府希望能在2022年5月任期结束前完成终战宣言。二是目前大选选情的推动。如果能够推动终战，无疑是对李在明等希望在朝鲜半岛实现和平与稳定的政治人物的选举助力，也是确保这种南北关系状态能够维系的政治保障。因此，为推动终战，韩国采取了三个方面的措施，即协调美国、求助中国、期待朝鲜，以穿梭外交的方式在中美之间开展外交活动，并寻求日俄甚至欧洲国家等的理解与支持。
(2) ROK's position. The ROK is the most active party involved in this issue. First, the Moon Jae-in government regards it as the most important political legacy. Coupled with the fermentation effect of the Peace Spring in 2018, the Moon Jae-in government hopes to complete the end-of-war declaration before the end of its term in May 2022. The second is the current election situation. If the end-of-war declaration can be achieved, it will undoubtedly be an electoral boost to political figures such as Lee Jae-myung who hope to achieve peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula. It is also a political guarantee to ensure that this state of North-South relations can be maintained. Therefore, in order to promote the end-of-war declaration, the ROK took measures in three aspects, namely, coordinating the US, seeking help from China and expecting the DPRK. The ROK has conducted diplomatic activities between China and the US by means of shuttle diplomacy, and sought understanding and support from Japan, Russia and even European countries.
（三）美国的立场。拜登政府上台后，为拉拢韩国，对于韩国的需求自然不能不表示立场。因此，美国公开层面上表示支持实现终战，但实际上却非常警惕韩国的这一做法。因为终战的实现，必将带来联合国军司令部的解体、驻韩美军地位的变化、战时作战指挥权移交的实质性加速，最终导致美国在朝鲜半岛甚至东亚地区军事存在的颠覆性变化。美韩在终战问题上，时机、条件与观点几乎都不在一个频道，但美国又不能公开反对，只能采取“怠工”策略，不仅指使美韩国内大搞反对指责，政府层面只说不做。同样，美国更担心的是终战的环境“更有利于中国”，尤其是不利于美国围堵中国的战略前景。因此，美国家安全顾问沙利文就指出，美国对于终战有自己的条件，但目前的“现状”美国并不满意，不仅继续以“无条件”恢复对话冷落朝鲜，还追加了对朝鲜的制裁。
(3) The position of the US. After the Biden administration took office, it is natural to express a position on the ROK's demand in order to win over it. Therefore, the US publicly expressed support for the end-of-war declaration, but in fact is very wary of this move. Because the realization of the end-of-war will definitely bring about the disintegration of the United Nations Command, the change of the status of the US troops in the ROK, and the substantial acceleration of the transfer of wartime operational command. All of these will eventually lead to subversive changes in the US military presence on the Korean Peninsula and even in East Asia. The US has quite different ideas about the issue of end-of-war declaration with the ROK but it cannot openly oppose it, so it adapts the strategy of being dilatory. While instigating backlashes in the US and the ROK, the US government did nothing but talking and boasting. Similarly, the US is more concerned that the environment for the end-of-war declaration is more favorable to China, especially not conducive to the US strategic prospect of containing China. Therefore, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan pointed out that the US has its own conditions for the end-of-war declaration but is not satisfied with the status quo. The US not only continued to ignore the DPRK without putting forward any condition for resuming dialogue but also imposed additional sanctions.
（四）中方的立场。终战宣言最符合中国一贯的立场，因为这有助于实现半岛的长远和平与稳定。首先，由于中国是朝鲜战争停战协定签字国，也是战争的主体之一，终战宣言当然离不开中国，更不可能如美国所愿甩开中国。美国虽然不愿意韩国在此问题上与中国接近，但这是朝鲜半岛的现实。
(4) China's position. The end-of-war declaration is the most consistent with China's position, because it helps to achieve long-term peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula. First, since China is a signatory of the Korean Armistice Agreement and one of the main bodies of the war, China is inseparable from the end-of-war declaration. It is impossible to get rid of China as the US wishes. Although the US does not want the ROK to approach China on this issue, this is the reality of the Korean Peninsula.
此外，终战宣言目前的关键不仅仅是核问题，安全与发展问题同样重要。推动终战问题的解决，有利于韩国等重要国家发挥主观能动性，在一定程度上打破破除目前美国设定的“二者选一”难题。如果能取得进展，无疑是对当下国际局势解决范式的创新。
In addition, the current key issue to the end-of-war declaration is not only about the nuclear issue, but also the security and development issues. The promotion of end-of-war declaration will help important countries such as the ROK to exert their subjective initiative, and to break the "either-or" problem currently set by the US to a certain extent. If progress can be made, it will undoubtedly be an innovation of the current solution paradigm for international issues.
（郑继永，复旦大学朝鲜韩国研究中心主任）
(The author is the director of the Center for Korean Peninsula Studies at Fudan University)
Editor's note: This article is originally published on thepaper.cn, and is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information, ideas or opinions appearing in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
