刘畅
By Liu Chang
过去的2021年，中东地区热点问题部分降温，阿拉伯世界内部争斗趋缓，域外力量干预趋弱。
During the past 2021, hot issues in the Middle East have cooled down partially, accompanied by eased fighting among the Arab countries and weakening intervention of foreign forces.
展望2022年，中东形势“总体缓和，局部震荡”的主流趋势将不会改变，但地区合作深化将面临重重障碍，地区局势也将维持“冷和平”常态。
Looking ahead to 2022, the mainstream trend featuring "general relaxation and local turbulence" will remain in terms of the situation in the Middle East. However, the deepening regional cooperation is bound to face formidable obstacles, and the regional situation will maintain a regular "cold peace".
美国中东政策或趋“两极化”
US Middle East policy tends to get "polarized"
拜登政府的中东政策根植于美国持续从中东“战略收缩”。然而，从阿富汗仓促撤军使美国的国际声望和信誉一落千丈，为重振美国权威、重拾盟友信心，今年拜登政府的中东政策或将趋于"两极化"。
The Biden administration’s Middle East policy has been deep-rooted in the US’s continued “strategic contraction” in the region. However, the US' international reputation and credibility have nosedived with the hasty and unilateral withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan. In order to restore its authority and regain the confidence of its allies, the Biden administration’s Middle East policy tends to be "polarized" in 2022.
一方面，对中东的对手国家，美国将采取更强硬立场，尤其是对伊朗。去年，伊核协议相关方举行了八轮谈判，但成果寥寥。其根本原因在于，美伊各自的谈判目标仍存在明显分歧，伊朗希望不附加任何条件地“回到原来的核协议”，拜登政府并不满足于“重回”协议，而是要达成一个囊括伊朗核武研发、导弹项目、地区政策乃至人权问题的“伊核协议+”。
On the one hand, the US will take a tougher stance against its rival countries in the Middle East, especially Iran. Last year, the parties involved in the Iranian nuclear deal held eight rounds of negotiations with few results achieved. The fundamental reason lies in the markedly different goals of the US and Iran in negotiation: Iran hoped to revive the original nuclear deal without attaching any conditions, while the Biden administration was not satisfied with a "revival". Instead, the US has expected to reach an "Iranian Nuclear Deal+" covering the R&D of Iran's nuclear weapons, missile projects, regional policies and even human rights-related issues.
另一方面，对沙特、阿联酋、埃及等重要盟友，以及伊拉克、也门等关键国家，美国则将加大经济拉拢、军售等方面的力度，借助人道主义援助等手段强化多边外交，反映了其以双、多边方式维持对中东影响力的长远打算。
On the other hand, the US tends to strengthen its efforts in wooing its important allies such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Egypt, as well as key countries such as Iraq and Yemen, in economy and arms sales. Besides, other means including humanitarian assistance will be resorted to in strengthening multilateral diplomacy. These reflect the US' long-term plan for maintaining its influence in the Middle East in both bilateral and multilateral manners.
地区国家内部矛盾难以化解
Hard to resolve internal conflicts in the Middle East
过去一年，沙特、巴林、阿联酋、埃及4国同卡塔尔恢复全面外交关系，持续数年的海湾阿拉伯国家合作委员会（海合会）“断交危机”得以初步化解，但未来弥合其内部分歧的任务仍然艰巨。
In the past year, the four countries of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the UAE, and Egypt have resumed their full diplomatic relations with Qatar, marking the easing of the "crisis of severance of diplomatic relations" among the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states that had lasted for several years. However, the task of bridging their internal differences remains arduous in the future.
一方面，海合会各国地缘安全观及对外政策仍存明显鸿沟，对伊朗态度分歧尤为突出；另一方面，黎巴嫩因在也门问题上坚持自身立场，频频与海湾阿拉伯国家陷入严重外交风波，给未来阿拉伯世界内部和解增添更多不确定性。
For one thing, there remains an impassable chasm among the GCC member states in their views on geo-security and foreign policy, and this is especially true to their attitudes towards Iran; for the other, Lebanon has frequently got involved in serious diplomatic turmoil with the Arabian Gulf countries due to its persistent position on the Yemeni issue, which is sure to add more uncertainty to future internal reconciliation in the Arab world.
与此同时，伊朗与阿拉伯国家关系改善势头能否持续也引人关注。去年，在伊拉克的牵线搭桥下，沙特、阿联酋和伊朗之间的关系缓和成为中东局势的一大亮点。然而，沙阿两国同伊朗在也门问题、黎巴嫩真主党问题以及伊朗弹道导弹计划等方面的结构性矛盾和严重的不信任由来已久。来自以色列和美国的对伊强硬声音，也可能干扰沙特、阿联酋同伊朗改善关系的决心。
At the same time, whether the momentum of improvement in relations between Iran and Arab countries can be sustained is also a cause for concern. Last year, the relaxation of relations between Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iran became a highlight of the situation in the Middle East with Iraq working as a go-between. However, the structural rifts and serious mistrust between Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iran have been long-standing in terms of the Yemeni issue, the issue of Hezbollah and Iran’s ballistic missiles. Furthermore, a hard-line stance taken by Israel and the US against Iran may also shake the resolution of Saudi Arabia and the UAE to improve relations with Iran.
非传统安全威胁持续上升
Non-traditional security issues keep rising
一直以来，各类非传统安全威胁在中东地区经久不散。今年，来自非传统安全领域的威胁和挑战恐将进一步凸显。
All along, various non-traditional security issues have persisted in the Middle East. This year, threats and challenges from non-traditional security fields may become even more prominent.
新冠疫情持续反复无疑是制约中东和平与发展的最大因素。特别是与难民有关的疫情问题若无法得到有效控制，将直接冲击地区社会秩序，加剧难民来源国与接收国间的紧张关系，危害地区稳定。
The constant recurrence of the COVID-19 pandemic is undoubtedly the biggest factor restricting the peace and development in the Middle East. In particular, if the pandemic problems related to refugees cannot be effectively controlled, the social order of the region will be under the immediate impact, exacerbating the tension between the source countries and recipient countries of refugees, and endangering regional stability.
同样挥之不去的，还有极端组织和恐怖主义。阿富汗塔利班重新掌权对中东形成了一定示范效应。美军匆忙撤离时留下的大批武器装备未来也可能流入各类极端组织手中。相较之下，地区反恐力量正在收缩。新的一年如何应对美军撤走后的“反恐空缺”、协调各国综合反恐力量、补足地区反恐供给，将成为摆在地区国家面前的重要课题。
Meanwhile, extremist organizations and terrorism keep lingering. Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan has delivered a certain demonstrative effect on the Middle East. An array of weapons and equipment left behind during the hasty withdrawal of US troops may flow into the hands of various extremist organizations in the future. In contrast, regional counter-terrorism forces keep shrinking. In the new year, how to deal with the "anti-terrorism vacancy" left by the withdrawal of the US troops, coordinate the comprehensive counter-terrorism forces of various countries, and supply the regional counter-terrorism, will be priorities facing the countries in the Middle East.
（作者单位：中国国际问题研究院）
(The author is from China Institute of International Studies)
