吴敏文
By Wu Minwen
据新华社报道，俄罗斯总统普京和美国总统拜登于2021年12月30日举行电话会谈，重点就安全保障、乌克兰局势等问题进行沟通。这是普京和拜登当月的第二次会谈。
Xinhua News Agency reported that Russian President Putin and his US counterpart Biden held a phone conversation on December 30, 2021 to discuss such key issues as security guarantee and the situation in Ukraine – the second conversation between the two state leaders in a month.
12月7日，在以美国与北约及其所支持的乌克兰为一方，以乌东亲俄武装与俄罗斯为另一方的武装对峙剑拔弩张之际，普京和拜登也曾举行视频会晤。两次会谈，双方关键诉求存在重大分歧，似乎很难找到两全方案。
Putin and Biden previously held a meeting via video link on December 7 against the background of an intense armed confrontation between Ukraine supported by the US and NATO on one side and the pro-Russia armed forces in east Ukraine supported by Russia on the other side. However, the two leaders had major divergences on their key demands during both meetings and a compromise didn’t seem likely.
苏联解体、华约解散之后，作为冷战期间两大对抗性军事集团之一的北约并未随之消亡，而是逆势扩张。尤其是吸收前华约国家和从苏联分离出来的国家加入，使得俄罗斯的地缘政治和地缘军事环境急剧恶化。
After the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Treaty Organization disintegrated, NATO, one of the two major military blocs during the Cold War, escaped the tragic fate but continued to expand instead. It even took in former member states from the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Treaty Organization, seriously deteriorating the geopolitical and geo-military environment around Russia.
目前，对俄罗斯而言，乌克兰已经是俄罗斯在欧洲方向面对美国和北约挤压的最后缓冲窗口。一旦乌克兰加入北约，则意味着美国和北约在整个西部方向对俄罗斯战略包围全面合拢，这对俄罗斯而言无疑是噩梦。
Ukraine is Russia’s last buffer zone against the US and NATO, whose strategic encirclement of Russia would be complete once Ukraine joined NATO, which would be a total nightmare for Russia.
美国和北约与俄罗斯之间的冲突已经延续了很长时间，但其近年的发展却有新的背景，其中最核心的原因是美国实施以遏制中国崛起为目的的“印太战略”。这导致美国的北约盟国担忧其在欧洲方向部署的力量减弱，不足以抵御俄罗斯的威胁，因此需要拉住美国。其最自然也最有效的办法就是强调俄罗斯威胁，在必要的时候甚至不惜激化矛盾。
The conflict between Russia and US as well as NATO has lasted a long time, but its development in recent years has a new background – the Indo-Pacific Strategy launched by the US to contain China’s rise. Such a move has made America’s NATO allies worry that the US would reduce its deployments in Europe so much that they won’t be strong enough to fend off threats from Russia, so they are trying to keep it there. The most natural and effective way to do that is emphasizing the Russian threats, to the extent of pouring fuel on flame if necessary.
美国与北约和俄罗斯在乌克兰问题上博弈的最新发展，是北约一方渲染俄罗斯正在俄乌边境地区集结100个营级战术作战群，多达17.5万名士兵，将在2022年年初展开对乌克兰的大规模入侵。对此，俄罗斯方面表示：俄罗斯是根据本国需要在本国领土上调动军队，没有对任何国家造成或正在造成威胁。
The latest development of the struggle between the US and NATO VS Russia is that NATO claimed Russia was deploying 100 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs), involving 175,000 soldiers, along its border with Ukraine and would wave a full-blown invasion of the country in early 2022. In response to that, Russia said it was just mobilizing troops on its own territory according to its own needs without causing any threats to any other country.
同时，俄罗斯方面指责乌克兰和美国正在采取破坏稳定的行为。俄罗斯方面认为，乌克兰向顿巴斯地区集结约乌武装部队半数兵力的目的，是欲对顿涅斯克和卢甘斯克地区的亲俄武装采取行动。美国和北约及乌克兰炒作俄罗斯“入侵乌克兰”，正是为了掩盖乌克兰这一企图所散布的烟幕。
In the meantime, Moscow accused Ukraine and the US of taking actions that were undermining stability. Kremlin believed that Ukraine was rallying half of its armed forces in Donbass with the intention of launching actions against pro-Russia forces in Donetsk and Lugansk, and its hype of Russia’s so-called “invasion of Ukraine” along with the US and NATO is just a smoke screen.
然而，看似剑拔弩张的表象下面，是美国、北约、乌克兰、俄罗斯等相关各方，谁也不会轻举妄动的深层逻辑。美国对乌克兰的支持，在大造支援声势的基础上，基本上会止于提供武器装备与军事训练。在激化地区紧张局势上，北约较美国犹有过之。北约各国或单独、或联合在黑海、乌克兰地区展开军事活动。但是，这些活动总的来说形式大于内容。例如，北约一方面渲染俄罗斯可能对乌克兰实施武装入侵，另一方面却在如何应对和反应上语焉不详。
However, beneath the ostensible strain is a deep-seated reason why neither party – either the US, NATO, Ukraine or Russia – would make any impulsive move. Despite all its fanfare, America’s support for Ukraine won’t go any further than providing weapons, equipment and military training. NATO has gone farther than the US in aggravating regional tension as its member states carried out military activities in the Black Sea and in Ukraine either separately or jointly, although these activities were more symbolic than substantial. For instance, while NATO is clamoring about the possibility of Russia invading Ukraine by force, it has no idea how to respond or react.
总的来说，美国和北约与俄罗斯在乌克兰问题上的博弈，将会是一种长期斗而不破的局面。没有美国与北约的支持，乌克兰不敢轻举妄动；没有美国出手，北约连自保都把握不足。美国已经明确表示不会出动地面力量，也就是说不会与俄罗斯撕破脸。对俄罗斯而言，引而不发可能比采取行动更有弹性和主动性。不过，在不同的时间、背景下，为了某种目的，各方角力导致问题发酵引发新一轮博弈，倒是随时都有可能。
In general, the game on the Ukraine issue – with the US and NATO on one side and Russia on the other – will be a long stalemate. Ukraine won’t act rashly without support from the US and NATO; NATO isn’t even able to defend itself without the US; while the US has made it clear that it won’t send any ground forces, meaning it won’t have an open falling-out with Moscow. Russia, on the other hand, may find itself having more flexibility and initiative by staying put rather than taking action. This being said, it’s still possible that the parties, at different times, against the different background and for different purposes, may see their tug-of-war escalate and trigger a new round of standoff anytime down the road.
（作者单位：国防科技大学信息通信学院）
(The author is from College of Information and Communication, National University of Defense Technology)
Editor's note: This article is originally published on zqb.cyol.com, and is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information, ideas or opinions appearing in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
