■胡小刀 By Hu Xiaodao
2021年，新冠肺炎疫情在全球持续蔓延，百年变局加速演进，世界进入动荡变革期。让我们一起回顾那些令人印象深刻，并将对未来国际局势产生重大影响的热点事件。
The past year of 2021 has witnessed COVID-19 rampaging across the world, changes never seen in a century evolving in acceleration, and the world entering a period of instability and reform. Today let’s take a look back at the major hotspots that will exert far-reaching impacts on the international situation.
1.俄与北约关系深陷“冰河时代”
Russia-NATO relation mired in “Ice Age”
【热点回顾】2021年，乌克兰东部局势持续升温，俄罗斯与北约关系跌至冰点。
In 2021, the situation in east Ukraine kept escalating and the relation between Russia and NATO plummeted to a historical new low.
点评：虽然北约宣称“一直致力于与俄打造合作伙伴关系，在具有共同利益的领域开展对话和实际合作”，但双方鲜有合作领域。未来，基于双方在白俄罗斯和波兰边境难民、乌克兰等诸多问题上的对立和矛盾，俄罗斯与北约的战略博弈或将持续升级。
Despite NATO’s claim to be committed to forging a partnership with Russia and conducting dialogue and pragmatic cooperation in areas of common interests, the two sides have barely worked together on anything. Judging from their conflicts on a range of issues, from refugees on the Belarus-Poland border to Ukraine, the strategic struggle between Russia and NATO is likely to keep escalating in the future.
2.美军仓皇撤离阿富汗
American troops pulled from Afghanistan in disgrace
【热点回顾】8月30日，伴随着最后一架C-17运输机从喀布尔国际机场起飞，美国在阿富汗的撤离行动在争议与混乱中落幕。
With the last C-17 transport plane taking off from the Kabul International Airport on August 30, America’s hurried pullback from Afghanistan finally wrapped up amid disputes and chaos.
点评：基于根深蒂固的霸权思维，美国前脚刚从阿富汗泥潭中拔出，后脚又踏入大国竞争旋涡，非明智之举。如果拜登政府不能彻底改变“四处树敌”的思维定势，美国将犯下更多难以挽回的战略错误。
Driven by the engrained hegemonistic mentality, no sooner did the US pull itself out of the quagmire in Afghanistan than it plunged itself into the vortex of major-power competition, which is in no way a wise move. If the Biden administration cannot give up its old-style mindset of creating enemies for itself everywhere, the US is bound to make more irretrievable strategic mistakes.
3.俄白合作应对西方威胁
Russia, Belarus jointly respond to threats from the West
【热点回顾】面对西方的战略围堵，俄罗斯与白俄罗斯共同应对威胁。9月，俄白举行“西方-2021”战略战役演习。11月，俄罗斯总统普京与白俄罗斯总统卢卡申科签署旨在落实联盟国家一体化的法令，双方表示将共同抵御干涉两国内政的外部力量。
Russia and Belarus joined hands to respond to the strategic containment and threats from the West. In September, Russian and Belarusian Armed Forces conducted the Zapad-2021 strategic military exercise; in November, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko signed the Russia-Belarus Union State integration decree, vowing to jointly resist external forces to interfere in their internal affairs.
点评：西方国家的打压遏制非但没有达到预期效果，反而让俄白两国更加团结。未来，俄白或将通过经贸合作、联演联训、联合军事行动和一体化兵力运用等，进一步强化全方位战略合作，携手应对西方挑战。
The suppression and containment by western countries has, contrary to what they expected, made Russia and Belarus more united than before. Going forward, the two countries may further intensify the all-round strategic collaboration through economic and trade cooperation, joint exercise and training, joint military operations, and integrated dispatch of troops, in the joint efforts to deal with challenges from the West.
4.伊核问题曲折难解
Iranian nuclear issue remains unsolved
【热点回顾】12月17日，伊核协议相关方在奥地利首都维也纳结束第七轮美伊恢复履约谈判。根据会后声明，美伊双方未就解除制裁达成“共识”。
The seventh round of the Iran nuclear talks among parties to the Iranian nuclear deal concluded in Vienna, capital of Austria, on December 17. The statement issued after the talks said that the US and Iran didn’t reach a consensus on lifting the sanctions.
点评：在伊核谈判和外交接触上，美伊双方始终难以达成共识。尽管伊朗有意推动谈判，但谈判结果并非仅取决于伊朗，也需要美国的积极推进。正是因为美国单方面退出伊核协议，导致如此局面。美国是否会改变立场是伊核谈判能否取得突破的关键所在。
The US and Iran never reached an agreement either during the talks on the nuclear deal or on the diplomatic front. Iran was eager to push the negotiations forward, but the outcomes didn’t pivot on it alone – they required active efforts from the US side too, and the situation today should be attributed to America’s unilateral exit from the deal in the first place. Its position, or change of position, holds the key to whether the Iran nuclear talks will make any breakthroughs.
5.美英澳合伙搞“三边安全”
US, UK, Australia forge “trilateral security partnership”
【热点回顾】9月15日，美英澳宣布建立三边安全伙伴关系。根据3国达成的协议，澳大利亚取消购买12艘法国常规动力潜艇合同，美英两国为澳海军建立核潜艇部队提供技术支持。此举引发地区国家和国际社会的警惕。
On September 15, the US, the UK, and Australia announced to form a trilateral security partnership. According to their agreement, Australia canceled a contract on buying 12 conventionally powered submarines from France and turned to the US and the UK for technological support in its endeavor to establish a nuclear submarine force in the navy. This sparked alarm in regional countries and the international community.
点评：美英澳3国此举不仅公然在地区挑动对抗与分裂，加剧军备竞赛，破坏地区和平稳定，也违反《不扩散核武器条约》精神，损害《南太平洋无核区条约》。美英澳三边安全伙伴关系是美国秉持霸权思维、阴谋构建盟友体系的又一例证。此举非但难为自身谋得安全利益，反而让法德等盟友与其离心离德。
The establishment of the trilateral security partnership not only brazenly stirred up confrontation and division, escalated the arms race, and sabotaged peace and stability in the region, but also breached the spirit of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and undermined the South Pacific Nuclear-Free Zone Treaty. The AUKUS is yet another testament to America’s practice of a hegemonistic mindset and ploy to forge an alliance system. But such a move, instead of cementing security interests for itself, has driven its traditional allies like France and Germany further away.
6.巴以冲突再度激烈
Palestinian-Israeli conflicts exacerbate
【热点回顾】4月，巴以双方多次发生冲突。在多方努力下，5月21日，巴以双方宣布停火。
After multiple rounds of conflicts in April, Palestine and Israel announced a ceasefire on May 21 under the joint efforts of multiple parties.
点评：美国在巴以和谈上，逐步从“和解人”转变为“搅局者”，中东局势未来或将在美国的干预下进一步恶化。鉴于此，国际社会需在巴以问题上进一步凝聚共识，为巴以双方重启对话与谈判提供更多支持。
The role of the US in the Palestine-Israel peace talks has gradually changed from a mediator to a trouble maker, and its intervention may further aggravate the Middle East situation. In view of this, the international community should build consensus on the issue and provide more support for Palestine and Israel to resume dialogue and negotiation.
7.朝韩恢复官方通讯渠道
DPRK and ROK resume official channels of communication
【热点回顾】9月21日，韩国总统文在寅呼吁尽快恢复韩朝和美朝对话，表示希望相关各方共同发表朝鲜战争终战宣言。10月4日，朝鲜中央通讯社发表公报称，朝鲜决定从当天上午9时起重启朝韩间所有通讯联络线。
On September 21, ROK President Moon Jae-in called for resuming the ROK-DPRK and US-DPRK dialogue at an early date, and expressed his hope for relevant parties to jointly release the end-of-war declaration. On October 4, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) released a communique that DPRK decided to restart all lines of communication with ROK from 9:00 am that very day.
点评：恢复通讯联络，意味着韩朝具备随时沟通对话的渠道，有助于双方理解彼此意图，这一进展可视为改善双边关系的第一步。有关各方只有早日恢复半岛无核化和推进半岛和平进程的有关实质性磋商，才能构建半岛永久和平。
Resuming communication means that ROK and DPRK now have the means to hold a dialogue any time to better understand each other’s intentions. It’s the first step toward improving bilateral relations. Relevant parties should resume at an early date the substantive consultations on the denuclearization and peace process on the Korean peninsula – that’s the only way to achieve lasting peace on the peninsula.
8.海湾国家矛盾缓和
Gulf countries see ease in tension
【热点回顾】年初，沙特、埃及、阿联酋和巴林与卡塔尔恢复全面外交关系，实现双边关系正常化。5月，沙特恢复与伊朗的接触。8月28日，伊拉克政府主办巴格达合作与伙伴关系会议，卡塔尔、埃及、约旦、阿联酋、沙特、伊朗和土耳其等国领导人或外长与会，外界称这是一次显示海湾国家和解的重要会议。
At the beginning of the year, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and UAE resumed comprehensive diplomatic relations with Bahrain and Qatar and normalized bilateral relations. In May, Saudi Arabia resumed engagements with Iran. On August 28, the Iraqi government hosted the Baghdad Conference for Cooperation and Partnership, which was considered an important conference demonstrating the reconciliation among Gulf countries. State leaders or foreign ministers of Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Turkey attended the meeting.
点评：新冠肺炎疫情持续和美国调整中东政策，为海湾地区局势增加不确定性。在此背景下，外部环境稳定和地区合作的重要性日益凸显。地区诸国重启对话，谋求缓和紧张关系，维护自身安全。海湾地区格局和国家间关系进入全面调整期。
The raging COVID-19 pandemic and America’s adjustment of its Middle East policy have added uncertainties to the situation in the Gulf region. Against such a background, a stable external environment and regional cooperation become more important, and regional countries all seek to restart dialogues, mitigate tension, and safeguard their own security. The overall landscape and state-to-state relations in the Gulf region are in a period of profound reshuffling.
9.恐怖主义威胁进入回潮期
Terrorist threats come back
【热点回顾】2021年是“9•11”恐怖袭击发生20周年。各国不断提升应对恐怖袭击事件的能力，但恐怖主义威胁并未销声匿迹。8月至11月，极端组织“伊斯兰国”在阿富汗境内发动52次袭击，造成600余人伤亡。12月，“伊斯兰国”分别在叙利亚东部代尔祖尔省和伊拉克南部港口城市巴士发动袭击，造成多人伤亡。
The year 2021 marks the 20th anniversary of the “9/11” terrorist attack. Although countries have continuously reinforced their capability of tackling terrorist attacks, the threat of terrorism has not been rooted up yet. From August to November, the extremist organization Islamic State (IS) launched 52 attacks in Afghanistan, causing more than 600 casualties. In December, it launched attacks in the Province of Dayr az Zawr in east Syria and the port city of Basra in southern Iraq, causing multiple casualties as well.
点评：美军从阿富汗撤离后，中东、南亚地区的恐怖主义呈现常态化、复杂化趋势。美国持续20年的反恐战争却造成“越反越恐”的局面，归根到底是因为美国把反恐当作推进地缘战略的工具。其将反恐作为政治手段，抹黑指责其他国家反恐和去极端化的正当措施，为恐怖势力作乱提供可乘之机。
After the American troops pulled out of Afghanistan, terrorism has become a regular and more complicated phenomenonin the Middle East and South Asia. America’s 20-year-long anti-terror war in the country has only led to more serious and deadly terrorist attacks because it has all along only taken counterterrorism as a tool to promote its own geopolitical strategy. The US’ politicization of counterterrorism and smearing of other countries’ legitimate measures to fight terrorism and eradicate extremism has left an opening for terrorist forces.
10.新冠肺炎疫情在全球持续蔓延
COVID-19 continues wreaking havoc worldwide
【热点回顾】今年，新冠肺炎疫情在全球持续蔓延，并产生德尔塔、奥密克戎等变异毒株，对世界各国政治、经济、公共卫生、社会生活造成严重冲击。美国、印度等国成为新冠肺炎疫情“重灾区”。
The year 2021 has seen COVID-19 sweeping across the world with a string of mutations from Delta to Omicron, taking a serious toll on the politics, economy, public health, and social life of all countries. Countries like the US and India are hit most by the pandemic.
点评：总的来看，疫情长尾效应持续凸显，拐点尚未到来，携手抗疫是国际社会当务之急。新的一年，世界各国应团结协作，以实际行动冲破疫情至暗时刻。热衷政治操弄、破坏团结抗疫的个别国家，终将自食恶果。
Generally speaking, the long-tail effect of the pandemic will continue to show and a turning point won’t arrive anytime soon. Therefore, joining hands in battling the pandemic remains the top priority for the international community. In the coming new year, countries around the world should stand side by side and weather through this tough period together with concrete actions. The country that is obsessed with political manipulation and eroding solidarity in the global anti-virus campaign will eventually eat the bitter fruits of its own making.
