林源
By Lin Yuan
据外媒报道，美国近期以强化互操作性为名向法国示好，企图缓和与法国军事关系。外界分析认为，在诸多现实性问题和结构性矛盾掣肘下，美法两国军事合作难以深入推进，关系转圜有待时日。
Foreign media reported that the US has recently made overtures to France in the name of improving interoperability, attempting to mend their military ties that have been strained because of the nuclear submarine deal. However, analysts reckoned that given the many realistic problems and structural conflicts, military cooperation between the US and France will hardly go deep, and bilateral relations won’t turn for the better anytime soon.
推进军事合作
Promoting military cooperation
美国近期主要从两个方面推进与法国军事合作。一方面，深化“互操作”合作。12月17日，美国海军和法国海军签署战略互操作框架，为今后20年两国海军加强合作，特别是并肩战斗铺平道路。该协议要求，增进两国舰队指挥官间的联系，同时为建立机密信息和数据交换框架提供便利。法国海军宣称：“尽管两国关系经历波折，但签署该协议标志着两国海军合作向前迈出了重要一步。”
The US has recently tried to push military cooperation with France in two directions. On the one hand, it wants to improve “interoperability”. The US and French navies signed the strategic interoperability framework on December 17 to pave the way for closer naval cooperation in the next 20 years, especially fighting with a united front. The agreement required intensifying communication between the commanders of their naval fleets and facilitating the establishment of a framework for the exchange of confidential information and data. The signing of the agreement marked an important step forward in the cooperation between the two navies despite some ups and downs in bilateral relations, according to the French Navy.
另一方面，批准“突破性”军售。美国国防安全合作局官网12月21日发布声明称，美国国务院决定批准向法国出售电磁弹射系统和先进拦阻装置，该系统将安装于法国海军下一艘航空母舰，预计合同金额达13.21亿美元（1美元约合6.4元人民币）。如果合同最终落实，这将是美国第一次对外出售航母电磁弹射系统，也是澳大利亚取消法国潜艇订单、采购美英技术核潜艇后，美法两国首个大型军售合同。
On the other hand, it has approved a “breakthrough” arms deal. The US Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) December 21 released a statement on its website saying that the US State Department had decided to approve the selling of Electromagnetic Aircraft Launch System (EMALS) and advanced interception devices to France, which will be mounted on French Navy’s next aircraft carrier. The contract, estimated at USD 1,321 million, will mark the first time America selling carrier-based EMALS to a foreign country if it successfully comes through. It will also be the first large-sum arms contract between the two countries after Australia canceled the submarine deal with France and turned for American and British technologies.
破解战略僵局
Breaking strategic deadlock
综合分析，美国近期与法国合作姿态积极，主要出于以下考量。
A comprehensive analysis would show that America’s recent eagerness to cooperate with France is driven by the following considerations.
一是化解关系僵局。从特朗普政府开始，美法关系的裂痕持续加剧。继任的拜登政府虽着力修补跨大西洋伙伴关系，但近期的澳潜艇采购风波和直升机弃用事件，让美法两国关系雪上加霜。此次美国选择从海军合作破题，试图修复两国关系。
For one thing, it hopes to break the ice. The US-France rift has been widening since the Trump administration. While the Biden administration has tried hard to patch up the cross-Atlantic partnership, Australia’s recent nuclear submarine deal and its abandonment of European helicopters have only poured oil on the flames. Therefore, the US is trying to mend the relationship with France starting with naval cooperation.
二是服务遏俄大局。拜登政府上台以来，纠集北约盟友不断压缩俄罗斯战略空间，迫使俄罗斯周边安全局势面临严峻挑战。然而，法国近年来多次与美国“唱反调”，公开强调与俄罗斯合作的重要性。此次美国强化与法国军事合作，除积极拉拢欧洲盟友外，还有意进一步疏远法俄关系，企图加紧构筑对俄战略包围圈。
For another, it wants to bring France onboard in its anti-Russia game. Ever since he took office, Biden hasn’t stopped rallying NATO allies to continuously squeeze Russia’s strategic space and expose the security situation around the country to grave challenges. Nevertheless, Paris has been singing a different tune by publicly stressing the importance of working with Russia. The latest move to strengthen military cooperation with France is not only to placate the European ally but also to pull it away from Russia and forge a strategic containment against it.
前景并不明朗
Unclear and uncertain prospects
总的来看，美国推动与法国军事合作、试图缓和与法国关系僵局，但两国军事合作的前景并不明朗。
In general, America is trying to mitigate the tension with France through closer military cooperation, which, however, doesn’t appear to have a bright prospect.
首先，军售难奏效。美国国防部2018年的一份报告称，美航母电磁弹射器的平均关键故障率是美国海军要求阈值的9倍。此次美国巨额出售该系统，非但很难助推法国海军建设发展，未来或因质量问题引发两国新一轮“口水战”。
Firstly, the arms deal won’t help things much. It was reported in 2018 that the US Department of Defense admitted the average rate of critical component failure of its carrier EMALS is nine times higher than what the US Navy required. The costly arms deal won’t give a leg up to France’s naval development; rather, it will be the prelude to a new round of spat because of quality issues.
其次，战力难联合。综合各方面情况看，美国以互操作性合作为诱饵，将法国纳入其全球作战体系的想法完全是一厢情愿。法国未来的军事合作重点是与德国等欧洲国家一道，加速推进“欧洲军”建设，而美国恰恰是“欧洲军”成军的最大阻碍之一。
Secondly, interoperability between naval forces is difficult. Judging from the overall situation, America’s intention of baiting France into its global combat system with interoperability is just wishful thinking. Going forward, France will be focused on conducting military cooperation with Germany and other European countries to expedite the formation of a “European force”, to which the US is exactly the biggest hindrance.
其三，关系难修补。无论是特朗普政府时期的“肆意妄为”，还是拜登政府时期的“以盟制俄”，美国的霸权思维和蛮横做法都给跨大西洋伙伴关系，尤其是美法关系造成难以弥合的裂痕。由于在北约转型发展、欧洲自主防卫、俄欧双边合作等问题上存在根深蒂固的矛盾，可以预见，美法两国未来难以恢复亲密盟友关系。
Thirdly, bilateral relations are hard to mend. Whether Trump’s arbitrariness or Biden’s efforts to unite with allies to contain Russia, America’s engrained hegemonic thinking and peremptory acts have caused an unbridgeable cleft in the cross-Atlantic partnership and US-France relations. Given their inherent conflict regarding NATO’s transformation, Europe’s independent defense, and Russia-Europe cooperation, a resumption of the close alliance between Washington and Paris is not on the horizon yet.
