李镐哲
By Li Haozhe
近日，韩国和美国针对战时作战指挥权移交所需的完全作战能力（FOC）评估演习时间给出不同表态，体现出双方微妙的立场差异。
Lately, the ROK and US’ different positions on the time of the assessment drill on the Full Operational Capability (FOC) needed for the transition of wartime Operational Control (OPCON) reflected subtle divergences between the two sides.
根据计划，韩美军方将分3个阶段，检验评估由韩军司令指挥的未来联合司令部是否具备战时作战指挥权行使能力。其中，完全作战能力评估属于第二阶段，第一阶段与第三阶段分别为初始作战能力(IOC)评估和完全遂行任务能力（FMC）评估。第一阶段已于2019年结束。受新冠肺炎疫情等因素影响，原定于2021年完成的第二阶段评估至今尚未开展。
According to the plan, the ROK and US militaries will verify and evaluate in three stages whether the Future Combined Forces Command (F-CFC) under the ROK commander is competent enough to exercise the wartime OPCON. The FOC assessment is the second stage between the first stage of Initial Operational Capability (IOC) assessment and the third stage of Full Mission Capability (FMC) assessment. The first stage was completed in 2019, but the second stage that was scheduled for completion in 2021 hasn’t even started yet due to the COVID-19 pandemic and other factors.
据韩联社报道，美国国防部发言人约翰•柯比日前表示，美韩商定于明年夏季进行完全作战能力评估演习，并于秋季再次评估韩军战时作战指挥权行使能力。而韩国国防部长徐旭在做客一档广播节目时称，美国国防部长奥斯汀已指示美军研究能否在明年春季实施验证韩军行使战时作战指挥权能力的演习。
Yonhap News Agency quoted the US Department of Defense spokesperson John Kirby as saying that the US and ROK agreed to carry out the FOC assessment drill next summer and evaluate again ROK’s capability of exercising the wartime OPCON next fall. However, ROK Minister of National Defense Suh Wook said during a radio program that his US counterpart Lloyd Austin already instructed the US military to study whether it’s possible to carry out the wartime OPCON competence assessment drill next spring.
对于两种不同说法，有分析认为，柯比可能未掌握美韩军方的秘密协商情况，或双方目前仍在就此进行协商。韩国《文化日报》称，文在寅政府若想在任内确定战时作战指挥权移交时间，最晚得在明年春季完成完全作战能力评估。此番“博弈”，文在寅政府的意图相对单一，美国的考量更加多面。
Considering the two different versions, analysts said either Kirby wasn’t updated on the behind-the-door consultations between the US and ROK militaries, or consultations are still underway. ROK’s Munhwa Ilbo reported that if the Moon Jae-in administration wants to determine the time of transferring the wartime OPCON within his term, it must complete the FOC assessment next spring. In comparison with Moon Jae-in’s simple and clear goal, Washington seems to have more calculations.
一是欲将相关议题留给韩国下届政府。文在寅政府希望卸任前在收回战时作战指挥权方面取得实质性进展，但美方对此持观望态度。韩国纽西斯通讯社刊文称，美国政府可能正考虑与明年5月上台的韩国下届政府重新进行协商。由于韩国国内保守阵营和进步阵营对移交战时作战指挥权有不同看法，美国军方或将在韩国大选结果“出炉”后予以应对。
First, Washington tries to leave the matter to the next ROK administration. While Moon Jae-in wants to make some substantial progress on retrieving the wartime OPCON before he steps down, the US side thinks otherwise. ROK’s Newsis published an article saying that Washington may be considering re-negotiating the matter with the next ROK administration that will come in office next May. As the conservative and progressive groups in ROK don’t see eye to eye on the transfer of wartime OPCON, the US military may not give a definite answer until after the results of the ROK presidential election come out.
二是调整参演兵力和训练日程程序繁杂。分析认为，韩美上半年的联合军事演习通常在3月初举行，这与韩国总统选举等活动时间重叠，受影响的可能性较大。《世界日报》称，如果明年春季提前进行评估演习，美军需在约3个月内，从美国本土或日本等地动员所需兵力。为此，美国必须重新调整和其他国家关于联合军演事前达成协议的兵力规模和训练日程等 。考虑到美军已依据全球态势评估 (GPR)对海外驻军进行了重新部署，美国很难同意韩国的意见。
Second, the procedures are complicated for adjusting the drilling troops and the training schedule. Analysts said that the ROK-US joint military exercise in the first half of the year usually takes place in early March, which may be affected as it overlaps with ROK’s presidential election and related activities. If the assessment drill is moved forward to next spring, reported World Journal, the US military needs to mobilize troops from America, Japan or other places within about three months, for which the US may have to rearrange the pre-agreed training agenda and participating troops with other countries regarding the scheduled joint exercises. Therefore, it is unlikely to agree to ROK’s request as it had already re-deployed its overseas troops according to the Global Posture Review (GPR).
三是不愿过早向韩国移交战时作战指挥权。前驻韩美军司令艾布拉姆斯近日表示，相关移交工作最快也要到2028年。韩国媒体评论称，美国掌握战时作战指挥权，可在爆发战争后随时调动韩国军队，并向韩国出售武器装备，可谓一举多得。美国参议院日前通过的2022财年《国防授权法案》指出，应巩固在“印太”地区的同盟关系，为此有必要加强美韩同盟，并维持驻韩美军2.85万兵力的现有规模。由此可见，在出台对韩军更具掌控力和影响力的方案之前，美国不希望韩国过早收回战时作战指挥权。
Third, the US wants to postpone the transfer of wartime OPCON as much as possible. Former US Forces Korea Commander Gen. Robert Abrams recently said that the transfer will not take place until 2028 at least. ROK media commented that by holding the wartime OPCON in its hand, the US can kill two birds with one stone – dispatching ROK troops if a war breaks out on the one hand and selling weapons and equipment to it on the other. The FY 2022 National Defense Authorization Act recently adopted by the US Senate said that to consolidate the Indo-Pacific alliance, it’s necessary to reinforce the alliance between the US and ROK and keep the US forces there at the current size of 28,500 troops. It’s clear that Washington doesn’t wish to give back the wartime OPCON to Seoul before it comes up with a plan that can make it hold more control and influence over the ROK military.
