By Xu Shiwei and Dong Shanhu
徐世伟、董山虎
The naval Frigate Bayern of German Bundeswehr recently took part in a multilateral maritime exercise led by the US and Japan on the waters of the Philippines, the first time that a German military vessel patrolled the Asia-Pacific waters and participated in an exercise in the past 20 years. For historical reasons, Germany has always been cautious about its military development and overseas deployment. Therefore, its unusual assignment of a military vessel to the Asia Pacific and high-profile participation in the joint exercise have raised questions about what the country is up to.
近日，德国联邦国防军海军“巴伐利亚”号护卫舰，在菲律宾海域参加由美日主导的海上多边联合演习。这是德国军舰20年来首次巡航亚太海域并参加演习活动。由于历史原因，德国在军备建设和对外用兵方面，一直持谨慎态度，此次却一反常态，不仅派军舰赴亚太“刷存在感”，还高调参加联合演习，其背后意图值得关注。
Germany is seeking greater influence in Asia Pacific. With the unceasing changes in the world geopolitical situation, the Asia-Pacific region has increasingly come under the global spotlight. Against such a background, Germany has constantly adjusted its foreign policy to be more focused on this region. A policy guidelines on Asia Pacific released by the German government in September 2020 defined the Indo-Pacific region as a priority in Germany’s diplomatic policy and expressed the intention to enhance the country’s influence by cooperating with regional countries. In March 2021, Germany and Japan formally signed a military information protection agreement pact to share military secrets, followed by a “2 plus 2” security dialogue between their foreign and defense ministers via video link in April. It is reported that sending the military vessel to the Asia-Pacific and joining the exercise is a concrete step to implement Berlin’s “Indo-Pacific strategy”.
转向亚太谋影响。随着世界地缘政治格局不断变化，亚太地区越来越成为各国关注的焦点。在此背景下，德国不断调整对外政策，越来越关注亚太地区。2020年9月，德国政府发布一份有关亚太地区的政策指导方针，将印度洋-太平洋地区定义为德国外交政策的优先事项，并有意通过与域内国家开展合作提升自身影响力。2021年3月，德国与日本签署《军事情报保护协定》，共享军事机密。4月，德国和日本举行外长和防长“2+2”线上会谈。有报道称，德国此次派遣军舰参加联合演习，是落实德国版“印太战略”的具体举措。
Germany is demonstrating solidarity and alignment with America. After it launched the “Indo-Pacific strategy”, the US has doubled up its efforts to meddle in Asia-Pacific affairs, not only rallying Japan, India and Australia to scrabble up the so-called “Quad”, but also demanding support from NATO allies. Several NATO members, including Britain and France, have sent military vessels to the region to show their position. Although Berlin and Washington have conflicts and divergences on many issues, Berlin still chooses to coordinate with Washington in order to demonstrate the ostensible solidarity within NATO.
配合美国显团结。自美国提出“印太战略”以来，其插手干预亚太事务的力度越来越大，不仅拉拢日、印、澳等国拼凑“四国联盟”，还要求北约盟友跟进支持。当前，英、法等多个北约成员国已相继派军舰赴亚太海域，以显示对美国的支持。尽管德美两国在很多问题上存在矛盾和分歧，但同为北约核心成员，德国选择配合美国，以显示北约内部所谓的团结。
Germany is strengthening military forces to cement its position. After WWII, Germany, with its military strength being restricted, has mainly relied on the US for security protection. However, the scandalous withdrawal from Afghanistan and the nuclear submarine deal with Australia have shown how selfish and irresponsible the US is, and Germany is wondering to what extent it can continue to rely on the superpower for security protection. Merkel once said bluntly that the days when Germany unconditionally relies on others are gone and it must hold its future in its own hands. As the EU is accelerating the formation of a 5,000-strong rapid reaction force, Germany is attempting to shake up its military and combat readiness to cement its position in the union and the world.
加强军备固地位。第二次世界大战后，德国军事实力受到一定限制，主要依靠美国提供安全保障。然而，阿富汗撤军行动、澳大利亚核潜艇风波，让德国看清了美国自私和不负责任的本质，对还能在多大程度上依靠美国提供安全保障产生怀疑。默克尔曾直言，“无条件依赖别人的时代一去不返”“必须将命运掌握在自己手中”。随着欧盟加快组建5000人规模的快速反应部队，德国试图通过整军备战，巩固其在欧盟乃至世界的地位。
To tell the truth, Germany sending Frigate Bayern to the Asia Pacific is more symbolic than substantive – it won’t make much of a difference on the current security situation in the region. Nevertheless, the fact that Germany has turned from an “on-looker” to a “participant” in Asian-Pacific affairs may trigger chain effects like the opening of Pandora’s box.
客观而言，德国派出“巴伐利亚”号护卫舰巡航亚太，象征意义大于实质意义，不会对当前亚太安全局势产生重大影响。然而，德国从一个亚太事务的“旁观者”变成亲自上场的“参与者”，犹如打开了“潘多拉魔盒”，或将引发连锁反应。
Merkel, when she was in office, kept a pragmatic and low-profile attitude towards Asia-Pacific affairs even though she adjusted the Indo-Pacific strategy. Now that a new administration has been elected and will soon officially take power, it is generally believed that the new government headed by Olaf Scholz will attach more importance to the relation with America. For instance, some media commented that Berlin suspended the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline project as a way of paying allegiance to the Biden administration. Therefore, there is a big question mark on whether Scholz will be as wise and calm as Merkel on the Asian-Pacific topic. It’s highly probable that with Frigate Bayern’s Asia-Pacific patrol as a starter, the new administration will continue to reinforce its military presence in the region.
默克尔执政时期，尽管调整了“印太战略”，但其对亚太事务始终保持务实和低调。当前德国大选结束，新政府完成组阁即将正式执政。外界评论认为，以奥拉夫•朔尔茨为首的新政府更加重视发展与美关系。比如，有媒体认为，德国暂停“北溪-2”天然气管道项目，正是德国新政府向拜登政府缴纳的“投名状”，其在亚太事务上能否延续默克尔时代的理智和冷静令人怀疑。尤其是新政府极有可能以“巴伐利亚”号护卫舰巡航亚太为起点，继续加大在该地区的军事存在。
Being quite influential in Europe and the world at large, Germany’s actions have demonstrative effects. America is trying hard to woo ASEAN members in implementing its “Indo-Pacific strategy”. Germany’s military presence in the region at such a juncture will add to the bluff and bluster of the US, Japan and Australia and put more pressure on ASEAN. The negative consequences are worth close attention.
同时，德国作为欧洲乃至全球有一定影响力的国家，其一举一动具有示范效应。当前，美国为实施“印太战略”，正极力拉拢东盟诸国。此时德国军事力量染指亚太海域，为美、日、澳等国站台，无形中壮大了美国声势，增加了东盟国家的压力，带来的负面影响值得关注。
