By Yang Chun
杨淳
The US Department of Defense (DOD) released the 2021 Global Posture Review (GRP) on November 29, emphasizing the deployment of troops in key global directions and highlighting its ambition to seek hegemony by force, according to foreign media reports. Relevant military trends may have a negative impact on global security and stability.
综合外媒有关报道，美国国防部11月29日发布《2021年全球态势评估报告》（以下简称报告），强调在全球重点方向增加兵力部署，凸显其以武力谋取霸权的野心。有关军事动向或将对全球安全稳定产生负面影响。
Military posture reassessment
军事态势重新评估
Nested within the Interim National Security Strategic Guidance by the Biden administration, the GRP assesses posture across major regions outside the US and develops posture adjustments, posture planning guidance and analysis on long-term strategic issues. According to the situation announced by the US military, it mainly covers five regions.
报告以拜登政府《临时国家安全战略指南》为指导，重点分析美国本土以外主要地区的态势，并针对长期战略问题进行态势分析、规划指导和调整等。根据美国军方公布的情况，报告主要涵盖5个区域。
First, strengthen deployment in the Asia-Pacific region. The GRP requires the US to continue to deepen cooperation with allies and partners in the Asia-Pacific region.
其一，亚太地区加强部署。报告要求美国继续与亚太地区盟友和伙伴深化合作，以遏制大国潜在的军事侵略和来自朝鲜的威胁。
Second, increase deterrence in Europe. The GRP believes that the US should strengthen its effective deterrence against Russia and enable NATO forces to operate more effectively.
其二，欧洲地区提升威慑。报告认为，美国应巩固对俄罗斯侵略的有效威慑力，并使北约部队能够更有效地运作。
Third, continue to work in the Middle East. The GRP re-examines the US's approach to the Iran issue and the ever-changing anti-terrorism requirements after the end of its operations in Afghanistan. In Iraq and Syria, the US will continue to support operations against the "Islamic State" and help partners in the Middle East strengthen military construction.
其三，中东地区持续深耕。报告重新审视美国防部处理伊朗问题的方法，及阿富汗行动结束后不断变化的反恐要求。在伊拉克和叙利亚，美国防部将继续支持打击“伊斯兰国”的行动，并帮助中东地区合作伙伴加强军事建设。
Fourth, safeguard its interests in Africa. The GRP assesses the threats of violent extremist organizations in Africa, and provides recommendations to ensure the diplomatic activities of the US in the region, and protects the rights of the US and its partners.
其四，非洲地区维护利益。报告对来自非洲地区的暴力极端组织威胁进行评估，为确保美国防部在该地区的外交活动提出建议，保障美国及合作伙伴的权益。
Fifth, respond to threats in the Americas. The GRP elaborates on the role of the US in national security activities such as humanitarian assistance, disaster relief, and counter-narcotics missions in Central and South America and the Caribbean. The GRP supports the US government to respond to transnational challenges and increase defense cooperation activities in the region.
其五，美洲地区应对威胁。报告审查了美国防部在中南美洲和加勒比地区人道主义援助、救灾和缉毒任务等国家安全活动中的作用。支持美国政府在该地区应对跨国挑战和增加国防合作活动。
Long and winding implementation road
执行前景道阻且长
In general, the GRP aims to strengthen the global response capabilities of the US military and provide key information support for the upcoming drafts of the National Security Strategy and the National Defense Strategy by the Biden administration. However, it will face many difficulties in the future implementation.
总的来看，报告旨在加强美军的全球响应能力，并为拜登政府即将出台的《国家安全战略》和《国防战略》草案提供关键信息支撑。未来，报告在执行过程中面临诸多困难。
On the one hand, allies of the US have their own plans. The GRP emphasizes the need to strengthen the global military deployment of the US military and requires support from allies. However, the ideas of related allies are not the same. In the Asia-Pacific region, most allies do not want regional instability caused by the strengthening of the US military deployment, and they are cautious or even indifferent to the US military cooperation and forward deployment plans. In Europe, Russia's neighboring countries actively promote the stationing of US military forces, intending to build a security barrier mainly based on the US military.
一方面，盟友“各有算盘”。报告强调强化美军全球军力布势，势必要得到盟友伙伴支持。然而，相关盟友伙伴的想法并不一致。在亚太地区，多数盟友不希望因美国强化军力部署引发地区不稳定局势，对美国的军事合作及前沿部署计划表态谨慎甚至冷淡。在欧洲地区，俄周边国家积极推动美国军事力量进驻，意图以美军为依托构建安全屏障。
On the other hand, the US military has the ambition but lacks the capability. European media reported that the GRP requires the US to have the capability to fight two wars in Asia and Europe at the same time. Based on the current level of combat readiness and armament construction, the US can't even deal with one and a half wars, let alone winning two wars. The GRP may drag the US military into the traps of "techno-worship", "blind faith in military capability" and "global response", making it exhausted and stuck in the development bottleneck with its overall strength remaining on a downswing.
另一方面，美军“有心无力”。欧洲媒体称，报告要求美国具备在亚洲和欧洲同时打两场战争的能力。结合当前的战备水平和军备建设情况，美军连应付“一场半战争”都捉襟见肘，更遑论打赢“两场战争”。报告或将美军拖入“技术崇拜”“军力迷信”和“全球响应”陷阱，让美军在疲于奔命中进入建设发展瓶颈，整体实力持续下滑。
