Putin-Modi meeting renders Russia-US-India relations more delicate

“普莫会”让俄美印关系更加微妙

Source
China Military Online
Editor
Huang Panyue
Time
2021-12-07 22:03:34

By Qian Feng

钱峰

Russian President Vladimir Putin met Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on December 6 in India, which has made the development trend of Russia-US and India-US relations more delicate and complicated.

俄罗斯总统普京6日访问印度并与莫迪总理举行会谈,这让下一步俄美及印美关系走势更加微妙复杂。

For Russia, Putin’s first visit to India since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic reflects the importance Putin has attached to India, a traditional partner of Russia, and a way to possess a relatively favorable psychological advantage before his second meeting with US President Joe Biden. As far as India is concerned, Putin's visit is self-evident when New Delhi is longing for demonstrating and promoting its status as a great power.

对俄罗斯来说,普京自疫情暴发以来首次访印,不仅体现对印度这一传统伙伴的重视,也能在与拜登二次会晤之前占据相对有利的心理优势。而对印度而言,普京的到访在新德里渴望彰显和提升大国地位的当下意义不言而喻。

Ahead of Putin’s visit to India, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov arrived in India for a 2+2 ministerial dialogue at the level of the foreign and defense ministers of India and Russia, a first of its kind. Previously, India has only held such dialogues with its partners of the US, Japan, and Australia in the quadrilateral security dialogue (QUAD).

普京到访前,俄印两国外长、防长还首次开启两国“2+2”会晤模式。目前,印度只与美日澳“四边机制”成员举行过“2+2”层级的会晤。

As announced in advance by officials and media of both sides, the ministers have been expected to discuss defense, energy, space technology, culture and education issues, with about 10 bilateral agreements to be signed this time. Through Putin's visit, Russia and India have somewhat eliminated the suspicion that the outside world had held about the growing rifts in their bilateral relationship.

两国官方和媒体甚至提前预告,此次将签署大约10项双边协议,涵盖国防、能源、空间技术和文化教育等领域。借着普京此访,俄印多少消除了此前外界对两国关系裂痕越来越大的猜疑。

In recent years, the continuous progress of the US-India relations has hit India-Russia relations step by step. This has made Russia worry that the US may intend to drive a wedge between Russia and India to weaken Russia’s strategic influence; besides, the crescendo of the US-India military cooperation has also dealt a heavy blow to Russia’s Foreign Military Sales (FMS) program, the proportion of Russian-made weapons and equipment in the Indian military having fallen from 70% to 50% as a result.

近年来,印美关系持续走近日渐冲击到印俄关系,不仅让俄罗斯担忧美国意图在俄印之间打入楔子以削弱俄方战略影响力,印美军事合作升温也严重侵蚀俄罗斯对外军售的基本盘,致使俄制武器装备在印军的占比从70%下滑至50%。

At the same time, the outside world also noticed that Russia has signed an unprecedented Russia-Pakistan arms supply agreement with Pakistan, a long-standing rival of India, and also excluded India from participating in the "Moscow Mechanism", which was established in 2017 to address the issues of Afghanistan. This is somewhat of a warning to India, meaning to give attitude to India.

与此同时,外界也注意到,俄罗斯不仅与印度老对手巴基斯坦“破天荒”地签署武器供应协议,还在协商阿富汗问题的“莫斯科机制”中排除印方参与,多少有警告并给印度脸色看的意味。

As to the Modi government, both the US-India and India-Russia relations are of great importance and based on solid foundations for cooperation. The US-India relations feature the great potential for cooperation with a trade volume of USD 100 billion, the momentum of which has increasingly surpassed that in political, military, security, and scientific and technological fields. While, the India-Russia relations are based on a trustworthy strategic foundation for over half a century, backed by traditional military cooperation, and Russia does not have any major differences or conflicts of interest with India.

在莫迪政府眼中,印美关系与印俄关系都很重要,也都拥有深厚的合作基础。前者既有千亿美元贸易额的经济基础,两国合作潜力巨大,合作势头已日益覆盖政治、军事、安全和科技等各领域。后者有着长达半个多世纪值得信任的战略基础,并有传统军事合作托底,且与印度没有任何重大分歧和利益冲突。

Against the backdrop of the intractable strategic and structural conflicts and rifts between Russia and the US, there is a major practical test facing India's major-country diplomacy, as to how to eliminate rifts and maintain a good cooperative relationship with Russia, while rendering the US to keep tacit or even accept the embarrassing reality of Russia-India’s FMS program, easing the dissatisfaction of India to US' "half-hearted strategy". In turn, India would be able to better circulate between Russia and the US, in an attempt to maximize its benefits from both parties. In all, the ultimate result will also depend on whether the Biden administration is willing to be lenient to India in order to achieve greater strategic goals.

如何在俄美战略性和结构性矛盾难解的背景下,既与俄罗斯消除嫌隙、保持良好合作关系,又让美国默认甚至继续接受俄印重大军售项目的尴尬现实、缓解对印度战略上“三心二意”的不满,进而让自己更好地回旋于俄美之间,最大程度地从俄美两方获利,这是印度大国外交面临的一大现实考验。其最终结果,也取决于拜登政府是否会为实现更大的战略目标而对印度“网开一面”。

(The author is the director and research of the Research Department at the National Strategy Institute, Tsinghua University)

(作者是清华大学国家战略研究部主任、研究员)

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