By Ma Hanzhi
马汉智
Coups have taken place in Niger, Mali, Guinea, and Sudan in Central and Western Africa and the characteristics of local political and security turbulence in Africa have further emerged since the beginning of this year. The COVID-19 pandemic has resonated with the inherent historical, religious, regional, and political conflicts in Africa and brought increased political turmoil.
今年以来，中西部非洲尼日尔、马里、几内亚和苏丹等国先后发生政变，非洲局部政治、安全动荡的特征进一步显现。新冠疫情同非洲固有的历史、宗教、地区和朝野矛盾叠加共振，造成政治动荡增多。
Historically, Central and Western Africa have a high incidence of coups. From 1952 to 2019, there have been 17 coups or failed coups in Sudan, 10 in Ghana and Sierra Leone; eight in Nigeria, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea-Bissau; seven in Chad and Niger. However, since the beginning of the new century, the number of coups in Africa as a whole has dropped significantly. In the past 20 years, the number of coups in Africa has been reduced to about two times a year. The military coups that occurred this year are mainly concentrated in high-incidence areas in history, highlighting the historical continuity of the political turmoil in the above-mentioned countries.
历史上看，中西部非洲是政变高发区。从1952至2019年，苏丹发生过的政变或未遂政变高达17次，加纳、塞拉利昂各10次；尼日利亚、马里、布基纳法索、几内亚比绍各8次；乍得、尼日尔各7次。但新世纪以来，非洲整体政变数量显著下降。过去20年里，非洲的政变降低到了每年两次左右。今年以来发生的军事政变主要集中在历史上的高发区，凸显出上述国家政局动荡的历史延续性。
The occurrence of military coups in the above-mentioned countries has a common mechanism. First, the countries face persistent political and economic difficulties. Since the pandemic, Africa has encountered severe economic and social crises. Countries such as Guinea, Mali, and Sudan, which have a single economic structure, are particularly troubled by crises. The full-scale crisis magnified by the pandemic has completely cost the "performance legitimacy" of the current government and the military then "naturally" seized power.
上述国家军事政变的发生有其共同机理。一是国家面临持续的政治、经济困境。疫情以来，非洲遭遇严重的经济和社会危机，尤其是经济结构单一的几内亚、马里、苏丹等更是危机重重。疫情放大的全面危机本就使现任政府的“绩效合法性”损失殆尽。军人遂“顺势而为”，夺取政权。
Second, military forces continue to play an important role in the above-mentioned countries. Military forces have been deeply involved in political life in some West African French-speaking countries. Among them, the middle and senior military officers have become the "main force" involved in politics. In addition, compared with a weak and inefficient government, the military itself has stronger capabilities of organization and mobilization and it can quickly oust the current government through its mastery of the state's machinery of violence.
二是军队在上述国家中持续扮演着重要角色。在一些西非法语国家，军方已深度介入政治生活，特别是中高级军官已成为介入政治的“主力”。另外，相比于羸弱、低效的政府，军队本身具有较强的组织动员能力，凭借其掌握国家暴力机器，能够迅速将现任政府赶下台。
Third, the loss of autonomy or interests of military organizations is the direct cause of the coups. Officers and soldiers seek to control the supreme power of the country in order to protect their own interests. The direct fuse that triggered the mutiny in Guinea was the government's attempt to cut military and police spending due to the stretched state treasury, which was approved by the National Assembly of Guinea.
三是军事组织的自主性或利益受损是政变的直接动因。军人为保护自己的利益，因而寻求掌握国家最高政权。几内亚触发兵变的直接导火线是政府因国库捉襟见肘而试图削减军警开支，并得到议会批准。
In the context of the raging pandemic and the aggravated political and economic crises in Africa, certain coups can meet the expectations of some people to a certain extent. Coups in Africa usually use the excuses of anti-corruption, anti-nepotism, anti-waste of public funds, economic reform, welfare improvement, and the establishment of security. However, after the honeymoon period, the problem of how to overcome the shortcomings of the previous government and re-establish the legitimacy of its own governance becomes prominent. The history of Africa shows that the coup leaders cannot solve the political, economic and social problems left by their predecessors in a short period of time. However, coups have brought devastating effects to the African people in all fields.
在疫情肆虐和非洲政治经济危机加重的背景下，某些政变一定程度上能迎合部分群众的期待。非洲的政变通常以打击腐败、裙带关系、浪费公款、改革经济、人民福利和建立安全为借口，但过了蜜月期以后，如何克服前任政府的不足，重新建立自己执政合法性的问题就突出的摆在政变者眼前。非洲的历史表明，政变领导人无法在短期内解决前任留下的政治、经济和社会问题，可政变在各个领域内都给非洲人民带来了毁灭性的影响。
Military interventions set a precedent for future military coups. When there is its first coup in a country, this is usually a sign of more coups in the future. The current successive military coups in Central and West African countries have a certain connection with Mali's coup d’état in 2020 and the recognition by the African Union.
其次，军事干政为以后的军事政变创造了先例。当一个国家有第一个政变时，这通常是更多政变的预兆。现在中西非国家接二连三出现军事政变与去年马里发动政变上台并获得非盟承认有一定联系。
Finally, officers and soldiers who come to power through a military coup will generally increase their spending on the troops and national defense, and even push the entire country astray into "militarization". More importantly, compared with the civil government, the military regime's lack of experience in governing the country cannot bring real benefits to the people.
最后，通过军事政变上台的军人一般会加大对军队和国防的开支，甚至将整个国家推向“军事化”歧途。更重要的是，相比于文官政府，军人政权自身治理国家经验缺乏，并不能为本国人民带来实际收益。
The African Union, Africa's sub-regional organizations and major countries need to truly proceed from the needs of Africa and create conditions for Africa to explore the path of independent development. In response to the ongoing military coups in Africa, some Western media have strongly advocated that international organizations, the US and the West increase external intervention in African politics. This is obviously a wrong solution. To a certain extent, the continuous interference of the US and the West is precisely the cause of the continuing turmoil in Africa.
非盟、非洲次区域组织以及各大国需要真正从非洲需要出发，为非洲探索独立自主发展道路创造条件。针对非洲不断发生的军事政变，有西方媒体极力主张国际组织和美西方加大对非洲政治的外部干预，这显然是开错了药方。美西方的持续干涉正是在一定程度上构成非洲持续动荡的原因。
During the Cold War, the US, the UK, France and other countries disgracefully contributed to coups in African countries and even participated directly. In the past coups in Sudan, Mali, and Guinea, the US and France used their own "democracy" and "human rights" standards to interfere and reform the above-mentioned countries and created continuous political tension and confrontation. The frequent coups indicate the urgency for Africa to explore the path of independent development, rather than the necessity of gross interference from the West.
冷战期间，美英法等极不光彩地对非洲国家的政变推波助澜甚至直接参与。在过去苏丹、马里、几内亚的政变中，美、法等长期以自己的“民主”、“人权”标准对上述国家进行干涉、改造，人为制造了持续的政治紧张和对立。政变频仍恰好说明非洲探索独立自主发展道路的迫切性，而非西方世界粗暴干涉的必要性。
Since 2001, the African Union has launched clear regulations that governments that come to power in violation of the Constitution will not be accepted to participate in the activities of the union. However, due to the lack of necessary means, such regulations are not well enforced. Next, the international community should increase multi-dimensional cooperation with the African Union, sub-regional organizations and African countries. The international community should increase "creative intervention" in the democratic process of African countries while respecting the sovereignty of African countries, rather than gross interference from the West. In addition, the international community should support the African Union in tapping local "democratic resources" of African countries, enriching the democratic practices of African countries, and making up for the shortcomings of Western-style democracy.
2001年以来，尽管非盟明确规定，不接受以违反宪法的方式上台的政府参与该联盟的活动。但由于缺乏必要手段，导致这一规定明显缺乏有力执行武器。接下来，国际社会应加大与非盟、非洲次区域组织和非洲国家的多维度合作，在尊重非洲各国主权的情况下，加大对非洲国家民主进程的“创造性介入”，而非西方世界的粗暴干涉。另外，国际社会应支持非盟挖掘非洲各国本土的“民主资源”，丰富非洲国家的民主实践，弥补西式民主的不足。
(Ma Hanzhi is an assistant researcher at the Department for Developing Countries Studies, China Institute of International Studies)
（马汉智，中国国际问题研究院发展中国家研究所助理研究员）
Editor's note: This article is originally published on thepaper.cn, and is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information, ideas or opinions appearing in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
