By Chen Yang
陈洋
Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga visited the US on September 23 to 26 for the Quadrilateral security dialogue among the US, Japan, Australia, and India (Quad), which was also his last visit to US before leaving the office. Suga’s visit right before his term ends is extraordinary.
为出席美日印澳“四方安全对话”首次线下领导人峰会，日本首相菅义伟9月23日至26日离任前最后一次访美。即将离职的日本首相基本不会参加如此大规模的外交活动，菅义伟此时访美十分罕见。
A look at Japan’s post-WWII political history shows that its prime minister wouldn’t engage in such an important foreign event before stepping down from power, for the main reason that the caretaker cabinet’s top priority is ensuring the smooth handover of power. The fact that the “lame-duck” Prime Minister Suga insisted on going to the US at such a moment and participating in such a high-level and large-scale foreign event thoroughly reflects his eagerness to leave some personal political legacy before leaving office. Since he took office in September 2020, his administration has been known as a staunch follower of America, and making a last-minute effort to deepen Japan’s engagement in the Quad and make a dent before the end of his term is something he would not give up.
翻看战后日本政治史不难发现，首相确定离任或下台前往往不会开展任何重要外交活动，主要原因就在于作为看守内阁，确保权力顺利交接是优先任务。作为“跛脚”首相的菅义伟执意赴美，主要就是为了留下个人政绩。自2020年9月就任首相至今，盲目随美起舞成为菅义伟政府最鲜明的外交印记。在离任前夕，菅义伟赴美参会，力推日本参与“四方安全对话”力度，也就成了他心心念念的政治遗产。
Suga’s American trip also displayed Japan’s willingness to remain America’s strategic lackey. The face-to-face summit was initiated by US President Joe Biden, and Suga’s agreement to attend despite the severe COVID-19 pandemic at home further proved how Tokyo is readily at Washington’s beck and call. Besides, judging from the ongoing presidential election of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party, Japan’s choice to continue being America’s “cat’s paw” won’t change soon. Although the main candidates running for the LDP presidency have different policy agendas, they are all for containing China, deepening the Japan-US alliance, and promoting a so-called “free and open Indo-Pacific region”. The Quad is seen by Washington as an important platform to make deployments in the Indo-Pacific, and Suga’s attendance didn’t just represent that his administration attaches great importance to the “clique”. What’s more important is expressing loyalty to Washington – the change of prime minister won’t in the least affect Japan’s commitment to the Quad.
菅义伟此时赴美参加“四方安全对话”，也凸显日本甘愿成为美国的战略附庸。此次以面对面形式举行的“四方安全对话”是由美国总统拜登张罗的，而菅义伟不顾日本国内严峻的新冠疫情形势，应声赴美参会，进一步坐实了日本对美国随叫随到的形象。而且，从日本正在进行的自民党总裁选举可以预判，日本甘当美国“马前卒”的选择短期不会有根本变化。自民党总裁选举的几位主要候选人在具体政策上不尽相同，但对应对中国、深化日美同盟、推进“自由开放的印度太平洋”战略等方面则相当一致。“四方安全对话”被美国视为布局印太的重要抓手，菅义伟赴美参会并非只代表日本本届政府对这个“小圈子”的重视，更意在向美国“表忠”——首相更迭的特殊时期不影响日本对“四方安全对话”的参与力度。
However, being so eager to be America’s errand boy, even in a very undignified posture, and forming a clique in the Asia Pacific will only put Japan in a more passive situation.
然而，日本不顾姿态地充当美国“马前卒”，在亚太地区大搞小集团，只会让自身陷入愈发被动的境地。
On the one hand, Japan’s eagerness and willingness are never met with equal respect from the US. Just like Suga who hurried to the US for the summit on the eve of the end of his term, former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe also paid a rushed visit to the then-president-elect Donald Trump in November 2016 to pay homage to the incoming leader. Yet, as is known to all, the Trump administration didn’t back up an inch on issues like the Japan-US trade imbalance and sharing of military expenses for American troops stationed in Japan.
一方面，日本的主动从未获得美国的对等尊重。与此次菅义伟离任前急忙赴美参会情况类似，前首相安倍晋三2016年11月曾急匆匆赴美拜访当时还是候任总统的特朗普，可谓给足美方面子。但众所周知，特朗普政府此后并未因此在日美贸易不平衡、驻日美军费用等问题上对日本“网开一面”。
On the other hand, Japan’s cooperation with the US to form the clique is against the will of regional countries. While actively taking part in the Quad, Tokyo has also expressed support for the trilateral security partnership called “AUKUS” — Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Its supportive attitude toward these two cliques is obviously inconsistent with the stance of most Asian-Pacific countries. ROK Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong said at a Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) seminar on September 22 that defining the US, ROK, Japan and Australia as an anti-China bloc is a “Cold War mentality”, stressing that ROK won’t join the Quad. After AUKUS was formed, the Indonesian government canceled the upcoming visit by the Australian Prime Minister and asked relevant countries to stop the dangerous move. Malaysia’s Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob publicly called AUKUS a catalyst of the regional nuclear arms race and urged countries to avoid any provocative action. It’s clear that Japan’s reckless pandering to America’s clique-forming tricks in the Asia Pacific will only get itself isolated in the region.
另一方面，日本配合美国大搞“小圈子”有违地区国家意愿。时下，日本在积极参与“四方安全对话”的同时，还表态支持美英澳组成的三边安全伙伴关系“奥库斯”。日本对这两个“小圈子”的支持态度，显然与大多数亚太国家的意志相悖。比如，韩国外长郑义溶9月22日出席美国外交协会（CFR）研讨会时就批评说，将美韩日澳定性为反中阵营是“冷战时代的思维”，并强调韩国不会加入“四方安全对话”。在“奥库斯”成立后，印度尼西亚政府宣布取消澳大利亚总理既定访问行程，要求有关国家停止危险行动；马来西亚总理伊斯迈尔·沙必里公开表示“奥库斯”将成为本地区核军备竞赛的催化剂，呼吁所有国家避免任何挑衅行为等。由此可见，日本盲目迎合美国在亚太地区拉帮结伙，只能被大多数亚太国家孤立。
Suga’s appearance at the Quad summit as Japanese Prime Minister might be taken by himself as one of the few highlights during his term, but it also posed a contrast to the fact that he is soon to step down after going home. It’s ironic that what he hopes will be his political legacy actually sends a different message – Japan is like a footman at America’s beck and call. No matter how hard the prime minister tries to be on good terms with the US president and to assist in implementing American strategy, that won’t help his political career in any way.
菅义伟以日本首相身份出席“四方安全对话”首次线下领导人峰会，或许被他当成任内所剩不多的高光时刻，但这与他回国后不久就将下台的事实构成了一种隐喻——日本只是美国召之即来、挥之即去的“小跟班”，与美国总统的私交再好、再怎么积极配合美国，都无助于延长首相本人的政治生命。
Editor's note: This article is originally published on haiwainet.cn, and is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information, ideas or opinions appearing in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
