孙成昊 董一凡
By Sun Chenghao and Dong Yifan
当地时间8月30日，美国防部宣布完成阿富汗撤军行动，结束了长达20年的阿富汗战争。这场战争让阿富汗生灵涂炭，美国在最后时刻不负责任地仓皇撤离更对阿富汗造成“二次伤害”。这种单边主义的撤出方式将造成超越地区安全的广泛影响，不仅极大削弱了美国的国际信誉，还对其同盟体系造成冲击。
The US Department of Defense announced on August 30, local time, the completion of its withdrawal from Afghanistan, ending the 20-year-long Afghanistan War that has ravaged the country and plunged its people into an abyss of misery, only to be topped off by a “secondary damage” in the last-minute irresponsible, scrambled retreat. The unilateral withdrawal will cause extensive impacts far beyond regional security, not only impairing America’s international credibility but also shaking its alliance system.
拜登就任总统后迅速调整美国对外政策，重点之一是修复“特朗普冲击波”对同盟体系的损害。从7个多月的表现看，拜登政府主要着力于两个地缘方向。一是谋求美欧关系回暖，重新修补跨大西洋关系裂痕。拜登首次海外出访就选择欧洲，凸显其对修复美欧关系、巩固跨大西洋同盟的迫切心态。二是继续推动战略东移，强化与地区盟友及伙伴的关系以落实“印太战略”，从阿富汗撤军意在配合这一战略转向。
Biden adjusted America’s foreign policy soon after he took office, and one of the key changes was recovering the damages done by the “Trump shock wave” to its alliance system. During the past seven months and more, the Biden administration has mainly focused on two directions. One is to seek to mend the US-EU relations and patch up the cross-Atlantic rift. That Biden visited Europe on his first overseas trip underlined how eager he was to consolidate the alliance across the Atlantic Ocean. The other is continue to push the strategic shift to the east and intensify its relation with regional allies and partners to implement the “Indo-Pacific Strategy”. The withdrawal from Afghanistan was a move to assist in that strategic shift.
然而，喀布尔重现“西贡时刻”暴露出美国同盟政策自私自利的“美国优先”本质。相较而言，美国的欧洲盟友将在难民、恐怖主义等方面直接面对阿富汗乱局的外溢后果。拜登针对阿富汗甩锅卸责的讲话只会强化盟友对美国的负面看法，认为美国是不可靠且衰落的超级大国，地区盟友和伙伴也将重新评估美国安全承诺的可信度。
However, the resurgence of the “Saigon moment” in Kabul exposed the selfish nature of America’s alliance policy – “America first”, because of which it is its European allies that will directly face the overspill effects of the Afghan pandemonium, such as the refugee issue and the terrorism. Biden’s blame-shifting and evasive speech on Afghanistan will only add fuel to the allies’ negative view of America as an unreliable and declining superpower, and regional allies and partners will also re-evaluate the credibility of its security commitment.
在这些国家看来，美国单方面摧毁了北约成员国应在阿富汗“同进同出”的原则，拜登的撤军决定并未与欧洲盟友进行有效沟通，这让北约在阿富汗的作用变得极为尴尬。未来，北约在欧洲周边安全治理中持续缺位趋势将更加明显。
They all hold the US accountable for unilaterally breaking the principle that NATO members should stand by each other in Afghanistan because Biden didn’t effectively communicate with the European allies about his decision to get American troops out, which put NATO in an awkward position in Afghanistan. NATO’s presence in the security governance around Europe will become more insignificant in the future.
另外，无视盟友与地区安全的撤军行动表明，美国外交更趋“自我中心化”。无论是拜登政府还是此前的特朗普政府，其对外政策的根本目标都是为了维护美国霸权，重建美国国内实力，为此，不惜牺牲盟友与伙伴的利益。一言以蔽之，美国既希望对盟国发号施令，让后者鞍前马后地服务其战略目标，又想要逐步减少盟友体系下公共产品和安全保障供给。“坐享其成”的本质换汤不换药。
Meanwhile, the withdrawal, which was conducted irrespective of security for the allies and the region, revealed America’s increasingly self-centered diplomacy. Both for the Biden administration and the previous Trump administration, the fundamental goal of their foreign policy is to maintain America’s supremacy and to rebuild national strength even if at the expense of its allies’ and partners’ interests. In a nutshell, the US wants the allies to follow its orders and help achieve its strategic goals while cutting back on the supply of public products and security assurance for them – reaping the fruits of others’ work as usual.
在新冠肺炎疫情和阿富汗乱局的双重冲击下，美国民众对外交事务的支持度也不断降低，拜登政府不得不将更多精力聚焦于国内经济和社会议题。然而，如此“内卷”的美国并不安分守己，反而高调推动“大国竞争”。这意味着美国将向盟友施加更大压力，让它们分担竞争压力甚至冲在对抗前沿。
Under the double-strike of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Afghan chaos, the Biden administration is getting less public support in foreign affairs and has to spend more energy on economic and social problems at home. But despite its own mounting problems, Washington doesn’t seem to know its place and has instead pushed the “major-country competition” on a high profile, which implies a greater pressure on the allies to weigh in or even bear the brunt.
然而，无论是欧洲盟友还是亚洲盟友都不愿在大国之间选边站队，毕竟当今时代已不是两大阵营截然对立的冷战时期，而是“你中有我、我中有你”的全球化时代，各国命运休戚与共、紧密相连。
Yet neither the European or Asian allies want to take sides between the two major countries. After all, this is no longer the period of the Cold War when two blocs were in dire confrontation – we are living in the era of globalization today when everyone’s interests are closely intertwined and all countries share a common future.
美国在阿富汗的表现也让其盟友清醒地认识到，对于美国的承诺必须“听其言观其行”，也必须评估绑在美国“战车”上可能付出的高昂代价。美国留下的“烂摊子”将大幅提高欧洲盟友管控周边危机的成本，暴露出欧洲盟友过度依赖美国的严重后果。在此情形下，一些欧洲国家已开始思考如何更好处理对美关系，可以预见，未来欧洲“战略自主”意识将更加强烈。
America’s record in Afghanistan also reminded its allies that they need to focus more on what the US does than promises, and estimate the high price they may have to pay by tying themselves to the US chariot. The mess left by Washington will largely increase the cost for the European allies to manage and control crises in surrounding regions – a serious consequence of their over-reliance on the US. Realizing this, some European countries have begun to rethink their relations with the US, and Europe will predictably become more conscious of its “strategic independence”.
（作者分别为清华大学战略与安全研究中心客座研究员、中国现代国际关系研究院欧洲所助理研究员）
(The authors are respectively a guest researcher at the Center for International Security and Strategy of Tsinghua University and a assistant researcher at the Institute of European Studies of China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations)
