杨淳
By Yang Chun
8月30日，美国宣布结束阿富汗撤离行动，美在阿20年的军事存在告一段落。伴随美方的仓皇撤离，积弊丛生的美国情报部门再次引发外界广泛质疑。国际舆论认为，美国实际控制阿富汗近20年，美国情报部门却无法为美国政府提供准确情报，最终酿成一场令美国蒙羞、令世界震惊、令盟友寒心的大溃败。
As the US announced the completion of its withdrawal from Afghanistan on August 30, its 20-year military presence in the country came to an end. The scrambled withdrawal once again triggered extensive questioning of the defect-ridden US intelligence agencies, whose inability to provide accurate intelligence about Afghanistan for the US government despite nearly 20-year actual control of the country has eventually led to the shameful, shocking and confidence-shattering debacle on the US side.
情报失误遭诟病
US intelligence agencies questioned for inaccurate intelligence
美国情报体系错综复杂，由联邦政府多个部门下属的18个机构组成，年预算总额超过600亿美元，其搜集的信息及相关分析是美国高层决策的重要参考依据，美国发动或介入的多场战争都离不开情报机构的煽风点火。然而近期在阿富汗战场，美国情报部门的表现让美军颜面扫地。
The highly complicated US intelligence system consists of 18 agencies affiliated to a number of federal departments and has an annual budget of more than USD 60 billion. The information it collects and the analysis it makes are vital references for top-level decision-making, and intelligence agencies are seen behind several wars the US has waged or engaged in. Yet their performance in the recent Afghan battlefield has cast the US military into disgrace.
美军参谋长联席会议主席马克•米利表示，在美方收到的情报中，没有任何迹象表明阿富汗政府军会在11天内溃败，美方预估在美军撤离后，阿富汗政府军的失败至少要经历“数月乃至数年”。
According to Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, there was no evidence among the intelligence they had collected that pointed to an absolute collapse of the Afghan government force in 11 days. The US side expected it to hold on for at least months, or even years, after the American pullout.
美国媒体评论称，近期在阿富汗上演的“喀布尔时刻”，让全世界见识到美国情报界的无能。美国政治风险咨询公司欧亚集团总裁、国际政治学者伊恩•布雷默指出，低劣的情报工作是美国此次撤军沦为一场灾难的重要原因之一，而日前发生的喀布尔机场爆炸案进一步证明了这一点。
American media commented that the recent “Kabul moment” in Afghanistan has exposed the ineptitude of American intelligence circle to the whole world. Ian Bremmer, president and founder of Eurasia Group and political scientist on global political risk, said lousy intelligence work was an important reason why the US withdrawal has ended up a fiasco, which was further corroborated by the bombing at Kabul airport days ago.
反恐能力受质疑
US intelligence agencies' anti-terrorist capability doubted
在美军完全从阿富汗撤离的背景下，美国情报部门辅助开展反恐行动的能力成为外界关注的焦点。综合外媒相关报道，美国情报部门未来在反恐战争中可能发挥的作用不容乐观。
After all US troops are pulled out of Afghanistan, the US intelligence agencies’ capability of assisting in anti-terror operations comes under the spotlight. Foreign media reports don’t seem to be optimistic about how much a role they going to play in future anti-terror battles.
一是人力情报保留难。美国《纽约时报》报道称，在信息化条件不足的阿富汗，美军情报部门当前面临的棘手问题是，如何在当地没有联络点的情况下开展行动。美国情报官员指出，撤军会导致很多线人“销声匿迹”。
First, it’s hard to keep informants. New York Times reported that a major difficulty faced by US intelligence agencies in IT-backward Afghanistan is how to operate without any local contact points as, according to American intelligence officers, many informants will “disappear” after the withdrawal.
二是美塔合作延续难。美军在阿富汗偏僻山区搜集恐怖组织情报的难度极大，需与塔利班进行合作。据悉，在美军8月27日对极端组织“伊斯兰国”阿富汗分支发动空袭前，塔利班曾与美国分享过关于其组织的部分情报。由于美国空袭前并未预先告知塔利班，引发塔利班的强烈不满。美国《国家利益》杂志网站评论称，在嫌隙不断加大的背景下，这种有限的情报合作恐难走远。
Second, it’s hard to continue the US-Taliban cooperation. The US military has to cooperate with the Taliban to collect information about terrorist organizations in remote mountainous areas in Afghanistan. It’s learned that before the US military launched the airstrike on the Afghan branch of extremist organization Islamic State (IS) on August 27, the Taliban shared with it relevant information about the organization, but it was greatly displeased because the US didn’t inform it of the attack in advance. American website The National Interest commented that such limited intelligence cooperation won’t go far as their divergences widen.
三是察打一体结合难。在侦获恐怖分子藏身之处的情报后，美军通常会使用有人或无人打击平台对其进行“定点清除”。目前美国在中东地区的无人机编队部署于波斯湾的阿联酋基地，无人机飞行时间越长，作战时间越短，成功率也越低。要缩短飞行时间，则需在中亚建立新基地，而俄罗斯明确表示反对美国在该地区的任何军事存在。
Third, it’s hard to integrate reconnaissance with attacks. After obtaining information about terrorists’ hideouts, the US military usually conducts “targeted elimination” with manned or unmanned strike platforms. The longer UAVs have to fly, the shorter they can fight and the lower the success rate. At present, the US has deployed a UAV formation at the UAE base in the Persian Gulf; to shorten the flight, it needs a new base in Central Asia, but Russia has expressly objected to any American military presence in the region.
恶名恐难“洗白”
Bad name hard to whitewash
近年来，美国情报机构明里协助美军遂行多样化作战行动，暗里组织实施大量刺杀、虐囚、监听等见不得光的行动。此次“阿富汗败局”暴露美军情报搜集分析能力的不足，未来美军情报机构建设面临巨大挑战。
In recent years, the US intelligence agencies, on the surface, are focused on assisting the US military in carrying out diverse combat operations; but they have secretly organized and implemented a long list of actions that are skeletons in the closet, such as assassination, torture of prisoners, and tapping. The debacle in Afghanistan has exposed the US military’s incompetence in intelligence collection and analysis, posing a serious challenge to its future development of intelligence agencies.
一方面，“硬实力”不足或将更加突出。后撤军时代，美军在阿情报工作将面临“非对称劣势”。在军事力量进驻尚难以解决反恐问题的情况下，美军情报机构很难在愈发复杂严峻的反恐战争中发挥重要作用。
On the one hand, its insufficient “hard power” will be more prominent. After the withdrawal, the US military’s intelligence work in Afghanistan will be at an “asymmetrical disadvantage”. While military forces cannot solve the anti-terror problem, intelligence agencies will hardly play an important role in the increasingly complicated and grave anti-terror war.
另一方面，“软实力”困境或将难以改变。为强化反恐战争效果，美军情报机构未来或将加大对恐怖组织头目的“定点清除”力度。结合美军的惯常做法，此举将不可避免地导致平民伤亡，从而进一步加剧外界对美情报部门和美军的负面评价。
On the other hand, its strained “soft power” will be hard to improve. To make anti-terror battles more effective, US intelligence agencies may step up the “targeted elimination” of heads of terrorist organizations in the future, which, given the US military’s usual mode of operation, will inevitably cause civilian casualties and therefore aggravate the negative comments on the US intelligence department and military.
