徐世伟
By Xu Shiwei
阿富汗塔利班新闻发言人扎比胡拉·穆贾希德日前在该组织进入首都喀布尔之后的首次记者会上表示，塔利班的回归是阿富汗人民重新拥有国家权力的象征，塔利班将组建一个包容性政府，并与其他国家发展友好关系。
At the first press conference held by the Taliban after it occupied the capital city of Kabul, its spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid said the return of the Taliban meant that the Afghan people were regaining national power, and the Taliban would form an inclusive government and develop friendly relations with other countries.
从目前形势判断，阿富汗权力更迭已成定局。然而，在外界普遍看来，塔利班接掌阿富汗只是开始，其执政不会一帆风顺，仍将面临来自国内、国际的多重考验。
Judging by the current situation, the change of regime in Afghanistan is a fait accompli, although it is generally believed that taking state power is just the beginning, and the Taliban will face multiple tests both internally and externally in that position.
在国内层面，塔利班能否赢得民心面临考验。塔利班组织根基主要在农村地区，而现在从“幕后”走向“前台”，将直面不同族群、不同阶层、不同势力，如何转变身份，赢得民众支持，是塔利班面临的重要挑战。
Internally, will the Taliban win the people’s support? The organization is rooted in rural areas, but now that it steps from backstage to the forestage, it will have to face different groups, classes and forces. How to reposition itself and win the people’s support is a major challenge faced by the Taliban.
首先，在国家治理方面，面对饱受战争蹂躏，千疮百孔、一贫如洗的国家现状，如何恢复经济、安置难民是塔利班需面对的最现实问题。其次，在保障公民权利方面，之前塔利班执掌阿富汗期间，对公民权利限制较多，尤其是对妇女的限制极为严苛。尽管此次在夺取政权过程中塔利班表现得务实灵活，比如，在进入喀布尔后立即发布安民告示，并宣称将保护妇女权利等，其未来政策能在多大程度契合阿富汗人民的期望还未可知。再次，在团结各派力量方面，一直以来，阿富汗国内政治派别丛生，塔利班不仅要面对前政府人员、位于潘杰希尔的小马苏德势力等反对力量，而且塔利班内部也存在改革派和保守派，如何平衡各方势力、调和相互之间的矛盾，是塔利班领导人即将面临的重大考验。
The most immediate problem is how to quickly recover the economy and resettle the refugees in an impoverished country that has long been ravaged by war. Then there is the issue of ensuring civil rights. When the Taliban was ruling Afghanistan last time, it set too many restrictions on civil rights, which were particularly harsh on women. This time it has acted more practically and flexibly when trying to seize political power, not only posting reassurance notice as soon as it occupied Kabul but also claiming to protect women’s rights. However, to what extent will its future policies meet the Afghans’ expectations remains unclear. Besides, there are so many political factions in Afghanistan that the Taliban has to not only deal with oppositions including former government officials and the Ahmad Massoud force based in Panjshir, but also balance and coordinate the reformists and conservatives within its own organization – this is an enormous test for Taliban leaders.
在国际层面，塔利班能否获取广泛承认面临考验。1996年塔利班夺取阿富汗政权后，仅得到3个国家的承认。尽管近段时间，塔利班作出诸多外交努力，先后访问俄罗斯、伊朗等国，并取得一定成果，但要想得到国际社会普遍承认仍面临考验。目前，国际社会仍普遍持观望态度，希望塔利班能遵守承诺。
Internationally, it’s uncertain whether the Taliban will be recognized widely. It was only recognized by three countries when it seized the power in Afghanistan in 1996. Recently Taliban has been making diplomatic efforts by visiting countries like Russia and Iran, which has yielded some results, but there is still a long way to go before it is generally recognized in the international community, which is on the wait-and-see right now in hopes of Taliban honoring its commitments.
此外，美国等西方国家普遍认为，塔利班与一些恐怖组织存在千丝万缕的联系，甚至将塔利班本身归为极端组织。在塔利班重新掌权之际，多个国家发表声明称希望塔利班遏制各类恐怖主义和犯罪行径。尽管塔利班表态将打击极端恐怖势力，但其后续如何行动还有待观察。
Moreover, western countries, represented by the US, generally reckon that the Taliban is too closely and intricately associated with terrorist organizations, and they even view the Taliban itself as an extremist organization. As the Taliban retook the throne, several countries issued statements urging it to curb terrorism and crimes. Although the Taliban has pledged to crack down on extreme terrorist forces, what it will do next is still to be seen.
最后，塔利班能否应对美国可能的“暗算”仍将是一大考验。塔利班重新掌权，使美国陷入十分狼狈的境地，激起舆论对拜登政府撤军政策的严厉批评，对此美国必不会善罢甘休。虽然美国重新出兵对塔利班进行打击的可能性不大，但可以预见，美必将利用政治、外交等多种手段对其进行打压。塔利班能否突破美国打压，迅速在国际上打开局面，仍是未知数。
At last, will the Taliban be able to handle the possible backstabbing from the US? Taliban’s comeback put the US in an awkward position and triggered intense criticism of the Biden administration’s withdrawal policy, which Washington will not let go. While it’s unlikely for Washington to send troops to attack the Taliban again, it will foreseeably use other means, including political and diplomatic, to suppress the newly established regime. Therefore, it remains unclear whether the Taliban can break through America’s suppression and quickly gain recognition on the international stage.
