US's flee-style withdrawal leaves security vacuum in Afghanistan

美“逃跑”式撤军在阿富汗留下“安全真空”

Source
China Military Online
Editor
Wang Xinjuan
Time
2021-08-12 17:24:35

王晋

By Wang Jin

阿富汗塔利班发言人扎比乌拉•穆贾希德8月11日在社交媒体上说,塔利班攻占了阿富汗北部的巴格兰省首府普勒胡姆里市和巴达赫尚省首府法扎巴德市。自美国军队5月1日开始撤离阿富汗以来,塔利班迄今已宣布攻占了总共34个省会城市中的9个。为应对塔利班对北部省份的攻势,阿富汗总统加尼11日赶赴北部巴尔赫省首府马扎里沙里夫市并主持召开了安全会议,讨论协调政府军和地方武装力量共同抵抗塔利班。

Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid said on social media on August 11 that the Taliban had seized Pul-e Khumri, the capital of Baghlan Province, and Faizabad, the capital of Badakhshan Province in northern Afghanistan. Since the US troops began to withdraw from Afghanistan on May 1, the Taliban have announced to have seized nine out of a total of 34 provincial capital cities. In response to the Taliban's offensive in the northern provinces, Afghan president Ashraf Ghani rushed to Mazar-i-Sharif, capital of the northern Balkh Province on August 11 and hosted a security meeting to discuss and coordinate government forces and local armed forces to resist the Taliban.

阿富汗战场局势的变化,根源在于美国在阿富汗不负责任的“逃跑”式撤军。美国在2001年以反恐为名出兵阿富汗,事实上进一步加剧了阿富汗国内原有的政治纷争;在发觉无法依靠战场解决反恐问题后,又撇开阿富汗政府单独与阿富汗塔利班和谈并达成协议,既损害阿富汗现政府的声望,又增强了塔利班在阿富汗国内和国际上的政治合法性。美国拜登政府就任后,加快了从阿富汗撤军的速度,在一些关键地区甚至不与阿富汗安全部队协调就自行撤离,所留下的“安全真空”,就当前的阿富汗局势而言,造成了极大的不确定性。

The change in the battlefield situation in Afghanistan is rooted in the irresponsible "flee-style" withdrawal of the US. The US sent troops to Afghanistan in the name of anti-terrorism in 2001, which in fact further aggravated the original political disputes in Afghanistan. After realizing that it could not rely on the battlefield to solve the anti-terrorism issue, the US set aside the Afghan government, held peace talks and reached agreements with the Afghan Taliban, which harmed the prestige of the current government in Afghanistan and strengthened the political legitimacy of the Taliban both domestically and internationally. After the Biden administration took office, the US accelerated its withdrawal from Afghanistan. In some key areas, it withdrew without even coordinating with the Afghan security forces. The "security vacuum" left by the US has created extreme uncertainty under the current situation in Afghanistan.

美国媒体报道称,在国际部队撤离后的两至三年内,阿富汗可能会在很大程度上落入塔利班的控制之下。事实上,在美撤军的短短2个月内,塔利班完全控制区域已翻倍,超过阿富汗政府。最近这段时间,阿富汗塔利班先后进攻多个省会城市与关键边境城镇,这些省份大多位于阿富汗东部和北部边境。这样的情况说明,目前阿塔采取的“先北后南”“先边境后中央”的策略,与其在上世纪90年代中后期席卷阿富汗的“先南后北”“先中央后边境”的作战方针已经有了明显的不同。

US media reported that Afghanistan may fall under the control of the Taliban to a large extent within two to three years after the withdrawal of international forces. In fact, in just two months after the US withdrawal, areas under the Taliban's control have doubled, surpassing that of the Afghan government. In the recent period, the Afghan Taliban have attacked several provincial capitals and key border towns, most of which are located on the eastern and northern borders of Afghanistan. This situation shows that the Afghan Taliban's current strategy of "North first and then South" and "Border first and then Central" is significantly different from the strategy of "South first and then North" and "Central first and then Border" that swept Afghanistan in the mid to late 1990s.

在上世纪90年代,阿富汗塔利班以南部坎大哈省为基地,一路向北拓展,击败各路军阀后再伺机夺取首都喀布尔,随后继续向北压缩各反对派军事力量的空间,直至阿富汗与北方邻国土库曼斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦和塔吉克斯坦的边境地区。采取这种策略,主要原因是阿富汗塔利班当时是一支以南部普什图族为主的政治和军事力量,与当时阿富汗北部乌兹别克人、塔吉克人和哈扎拉人之间存在竞争关系,因此先从南方崛起、再向北方推进,就当时的环境而言,是较为合理的选择。

In the 1990s, the Afghan Taliban was based in the southern Kandahar province and expanded to the north. After defeating various warlords, they seized the opportunity to capture the capital Kabul and then continued to compress the space of the opposition military forces to the north. They reached the border areas with neighboring Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. The main reason for adopting this strategy is that the Afghan Taliban was a political and military force dominated by Pashtuns in the south, and there was a competitive relationship with Uzbeks, Tajiks and Hazaras in the north at that time. Rising from the south and then advancing to the north was a more reasonable choice given the situation at that time.

但是在最近这段时间的攻势中,阿富汗塔利班的策略是先攻取北部地区,比如昆都士是阿富汗塔吉克人和乌兹别克人占据多数的城市。这显示出阿富汗塔利班已经突破了传统的地区族群限制,其政治优势已延伸至阿富汗多个地区。此外,在过去一段时间里,阿富汗塔利班大多在农村和边远山区占据主导,但是近期的战事大多集中在各主要省会,聚集的攻城力量规模越发庞大,显示出军事争夺的焦点已经逐步从农村和边远山区转向大城市。

However, in the recent offensive, the Afghan Taliban's strategy is to attack the north first. For example, Kunduz is a city with the majority of Tajiks and Uzbeks in Afghanistan. This shows that the Afghan Taliban has broken through the traditional regional ethnic restrictions, and its political advantage has extended to many areas of Afghanistan. In addition, the Afghan Taliban mostly dominated the rural and remote mountainous areas in the past, but the recent battles were mostly concentrated in the major provincial capitals. The scale of the forces assembled has become larger, showing that the focus of military fighting has gradually shifted from the rural and remote mountainous areas to big cities.

面对国际社会对其“逃跑”式撤军的批评,美国以阿富汗塔利班未能遵守和平协议为由,对阿塔军事力量发动空袭。然而,在阿富汗境内不再有驻军的情况下,美军从外部调集空中力量实施空袭不大可能改变战场态势,更像是应付国际社会的一种姿态。美国白宫10日声称,阿富汗“政府军必须要为自己而战、为国家而战”。这一表态,不过是“美式甩锅”的又一次露骨表演。

In the face of criticism from the international community for its withdrawal, the US launched an airstrike against the Afghan Taliban's military forces on the grounds that the Afghan Taliban had failed to comply with the peace agreement. However, with no more troops stationed in Afghanistan, it is unlikely that the US will change the situation on the battlefield with only airstrikes by airpower mobilized from the outside. It is more like a posture to deal with the international community. The White House claimed on August 10 that Afghanistan government forces must " fight for themselves, fight for their nation ," which is just another explicit performance of "US-style blame-shifting".

阿富汗局势变化影响着周边地区的安全。一方面,阿富汗国内冲突很有可能“外溢”至周边国家,周边国家不得不密切关注阿富汗局势,加强边境地区的兵力部署;另一方面,阿富汗战事所带来的地区混乱,极有可能成为滋生极端势力的温床。对此,周边国家亟须通力合作,协同应对可能出现的恐怖主义和极端主义威胁。

Situation changes in Afghanistan affect the security of the surrounding areas. On the one hand, the domestic conflict in Afghanistan is likely to "overflow" to neighboring countries, and neighboring countries have to pay close attention to the situation in Afghanistan and strengthen the deployment of troops in border areas. On the other hand, the regional chaos brought about by the war in Afghanistan is very likely to become a breeding ground for extreme forces. In this regard, neighboring countries must work together to respond to possible threats of terrorism and extremism.

(作者单位:西北大学中东研究所)

 (The author is from the Institute of Middle Eastern Studies of Northwestern University )

 

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