杨希雨
By Yang Xiyu
美韩今年的夏季联合军演10日拉开帷幕。疫情加剧、朝韩关系显露缓和迹象以及韩国国内出现反对声音等诸多因素叠加之下，不少人都认为这场军演本应推迟甚至取消，但结果却是它如期上演了。这表明美韩军演的决定因素在美国，同时也暴露出这场军演的本质属性是美国借机对朝施加巨大压力。
The US-ROK annual joint summer military drill kicked off on August 10. With the intensification of the pandemic, the signs of relaxed relations between the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) and the Republic of Korea (ROK), and the appearance of opposition toward the drill from the ROK inside, many people believed that the military drill should have been postponed or even canceled, but it turned out that the drill was still on schedule. This shows that it is the US being the decisive factor for the US-ROK military drill, and this drill is essentially a means that the US took to exert tremendous pressure on the DPRK.
从这个意义上讲，美韩在朝鲜半岛的军演无疑是特定地缘政治环境下有着特殊政治属性的军演，这也决定了不管美国哪个政党上台，不管半岛局势如何，也不管首尔是否犹豫甚至反对，华盛顿一定会坚持把军演搞下去。美方的出发点不是照顾韩国安全关切，而是不能丢掉这个对朝施压工具。
In this sense, the US-ROK military drill on the Korean Peninsula is undoubtedly a drill with special political attributes. Washington will definitely insist on continuing the military drill no matter which political party is in power in the US, what the situation is on the Korean Peninsula, and whether Seoul hesitates or even opposes. Its starting point is not to take care of the security concerns of the ROK but to exert pressure on the DPRK.
眼下这场美韩军演势必会影响半岛双方的安全局势。华盛顿执意推动美韩军演走向机制化和制度化，实际是在进一步恶化朝鲜半岛民族分裂的悲剧。
The current US-ROK military drill is bound to affect the security situation on both sides of the Korean Peninsula. Washington's insistence on pushing the US-ROK military drill to become normal practice is actually further exacerbating the separation tragedy on the peninsula.
美韩联合军演一轮轮搞下去，军事上竞相投入，直接影响就是进一步加剧半岛双方互疑。半岛问题的解决面临诸多难题，包括无核化以及和平协定等，但首要症结在于韩朝、美朝之间存在严重战略猜疑。
The direct impact of the continuous US-ROK military drills supported by military investment race is to further aggravate suspicion on the peninsula. The settlement of the issue faces many difficulties, including denuclearization and peace agreements, but the primary crux lies in the serious strategic suspicion between the ROK and the DPRK, as well as the US and the DPRK.
美韩执意举行联合军演显然是在加重而非消解这个症结。其结果就是半岛双方安全利益受损，而美国却不断从中捞取地缘政治收益。这是包括半岛双方在内东亚国家都应注意和深思的问题。
The joint military drills this time are obviously aggravating rather than solving the suspicion. As a result, the security interests of both sides on the peninsula have been damaged while the US has continuously reaped geopolitical gains. This is a question that all East Asian countries, including the DPRK and the ROK, should pay attention to and think deeply.
在此过程中，韩国的处境尤其值得关注。韩国在美韩同盟中的地位正处在一个微妙的十字路口。一方面是韩国在竭力维持同盟初衷，即用于防范来自半岛北方的“威胁”，让美韩同盟只覆盖半岛事务。另一方面，拜登政府却急于扩大美韩同盟的作用和范围，想把它拉到“印太战略”层面，加强韩国在其中的作用。某种程度上，这是韩国政府和国民在美韩同盟问题上面临的一个棘手问题。
In this process, the ROK's situation in the US-ROK alliance is at a delicate crossroad. On the one hand, ROK is trying its best to maintain the original intention of the alliance, which is to prevent "threats" from the northern part of the Korean Peninsula. It hopes that the US-ROK alliance covers only Korean Peninsula affairs. On the other hand, the Biden administration is eager to expand the role and scope of the US-ROK alliance and drag it into the "Indo-Pacific Strategy". Therefore, the current situation has become a thorny issue.
韩国政府需深刻意识到，韩国在同盟中明显处于弱势地位，这种结构就决定了，即便韩国希望对美同盟只覆盖半岛事务，但只要美国另打主意，韩国很难“如愿”。而且韩国面临安全悖论，即它越感觉不安全，对美安全依赖就越深，越是这样，韩国所谓的“自主性国防战略”就越像一场梦。一旦美国将韩国绑上“印太”战车，必然会对东北亚地缘政治结构产生不利影响。
The ROK government should be deeply aware that the ROK is clearly in a weak position in the alliance, which determines that even if the ROK hopes that the alliance only covers Korean Peninsula affairs, it will be difficult for the ROK to get what it wants, as long as the US has other considerations. The ROK also faces a security paradox, that is, the more insecure it feels, the more it depends on the US, and the more difficult it is to realize its "independent national defense strategy". Once the US ties the ROK to the "Indo-Pacific" chariot, it will inevitably harm the geopolitical structure of Northeast Asia.
中国明确反对这种军演，最主要的还是因为它已成为解决半岛问题的一大障碍。这种机制化、制度化的军演并非出于半岛和平稳定考虑，甚至不是为了韩国更加安全。南北双方深陷的“安全悖论”只能通过增强互信予以解决，一味加强美韩联合军演只能使南北双方在安全困境中越陷越深。
The reason why China definitely opposes this military drill is that it has become a major obstacle to the settlement of the Korean Peninsula issue. This institutionalized military drill is not for the peace and stability of the Korean Peninsula, or even not for the ROK to be safer. The Peninsula affairs can only be resolved by enhancing mutual trust. Blindly strengthening the US-ROK joint military drill can only make the ROK and the DPRK deeply sink into the security dilemma.
更让人担忧的是，美国执意推动军演背后，还藏着将美韩同盟扩大或者说纳入它所谓“地区安全支柱”的图谋。那样的话，美韩包括联合军演在内的互动就真有了东亚甚至整个印太层面的危害性。
It is more worrying that behind the US's insistence on promoting the military drill, it is planning to expand the US-ROK alliance or take it as so-called "regional security pillar". In that case, the interactions between the US and the ROK, including joint military drills, will be really harmful to the East Asia and even the entire Indo-Pacific region.
（作者是中国国际问题研究院研究员）
(The author is a researcher at the China Institute of International Studies)
Editor's note: This article is originally published on huanqiu.com, and is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information, ideas or opinions appearing in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
