杨忠洁
By Yang Zhongjie
近期，在美国政府宣布提前从阿富汗撤军后，阿富汗局势出现重大变化，塔利班与阿富汗政府打谈结合，域外势力加快搅局步伐。未来，伴随各方角力持续加剧，阿富汗局势前景堪忧。
The Afghan situation has seen tremendous changes recently after the US announced its earlier withdrawal of troops from the country. Taliban and the Afghan government are fighting and talking at the same time, and out-of-the-region forces are weighing in at a faster pace, whose sustained and intensified struggles will cast a pall over the future of Afghanistan.
国内打谈结合
Battles & bargains
在美国宣布提前撤军后，阿富汗政府与塔利班的对抗和谈判“双线推进”，国内局势陷入持续动荡。
After the US announced its earlier withdrawal of troops, the Afghan government and Taliban have engaged both in confrontation and negotiation, plunging the country into constant turmoil.
一方面，冲突维持较高强度。阿富汗国防部17日发表声明称，政府军在楠格哈尔省、加兹尼省、巴尔赫省、萨曼甘省和喀布尔省等多地展开打击塔利班的行动，除打死284名塔利班武装人员外，还打伤205人，并拆除塔利班武装人员安放的一批简易爆炸装置。
On the one hand, conflicts remain intense. The Afghan Ministry of Defense released a statement on July 17 saying that the government forces had attacked Taliban troops in the provinces of Nangarhar, Ghazni, Balkh, Samangan and Kabul, killing 284 armed personnel, injuring 205 and dismantling a batch of rough-and-ready explosive devices placed by Taliban.
另一方面，谈判艰难推进。据外媒报道，阿富汗民族和解高级委员会主席阿卜杜拉、塔利班驻多哈政治办事处主任巴拉达尔7月17日分别率阿富汗政府与塔利班代表团，在卡塔尔首都多哈举行新一轮和平谈判。据悉，阿富汗政府与塔利班在谈判中就成立一个由双方代表组成的14人委员会达成一致。另据俄媒爆料，塔利班代表在谈判期间表示，该组织将宣布为期3个月的停火，条件是释放7000名在押人员，并将塔利班从联合国黑名单中移除。
On the other hand, negotiations are stalled. Foreign media reported that Abdullah, Chairman of the Afghan High Council for National Reconciliation (HCNR), and Baradar, Director of the Taliban Political Office in Doha, held a new round of peace talks in Doha, the capital of Qatar, on behalf of the Afghan government and Taliban, during which they agreed to form a 14-member committee comprising representatives from both sides. Russian media also revealed that the Taliban negotiator said they would announce a three-month ceasefire on the condition that the Afghan government releases 7,000 prisoners and the UN takes Taliban out of its blacklist.
各方加速入局
Accelerated joining of various parties
综合外媒相关报道，近期，美国匆忙从阿撤军，多个国家开始加大对阿富汗事务干预力度。
A summary of foreign reports shows that several countries have stepped up their interference in Afghanistan after America’s hurried withdrawal.
据俄国防部消息称，俄罗斯和中亚国家近期将在靠近阿富汗边境地区举行系列联合演习。俄军事专家弗拉季斯拉夫•舒雷金评论称：“当前阿富汗局势逐渐失控，地区威胁极为紧迫。尽管与塔利班建立了联系，我们应当让包括上合组织在内的军事机构做好充分准备，以应对来自这一方向的一切威胁。”
The Russian Ministry of National Defense released the news that the country and central Asian countries will hold a series of joint exercises near the Afghan border in the near future. “The Afghan situation is getting out of control with imminent regional threats.Although communication has been formed with Taliban, military organizations including the SCO need to be fully prepared for all threats from this direction,” said a Russian military expert.
据土耳其媒体报道，土耳其总统埃尔多安表示，已与美国达成协议，土耳其将在美军撤军后接管并驻守阿富汗首都喀布尔机场。对此，阿富汗政府表示支持土耳其接管机场的计划，认为土耳其军队的存在将有助于击退塔利班。塔利班则表态称，如果土耳其未能按期撤军，将视土耳其为“占领军”。有军事专家认为，土耳其接管喀布尔机场是其介入阿富汗问题的第一步。未来，土耳其若以此掌控进出阿富汗的门户，就能对阿富汗局势施加一定影响。
According to Turkish media, Turkish President Erdogan said he had reached an agreement with the US that his country would take over and station the Kabul airport in the capital of Afghanistan.The Afghan government supported the plan saying the presence of Turkish troops would help fight back the Taliban. Taliban responded that it would view Turkey as an occupier if it didn’t pull back its troops on schedule. According to some military experts, taking over the Kabul airport would be the first step of Turkey getting involved in the Afghan issue, and it would hold sway over the Afghan situation if it controlled the gateway in and out of the country.
另据阿富汗媒体报道，印度日前通过运输机将几十吨武器弹药运至阿富汗。印度声称，这是为响应阿富汗政府的呼吁，帮助阿富汗政府军打垮塔利班。对此，塔利班发言人苏海尔•沙欣表示，欢迎印度在塔利班夺权后继续其在阿富汗的援助和重建工作，但印度不应向阿富汗政府军提供任何军事支持。
Afghan media also reported that India had brought tens of tons of weapons and ammunition with transport planes to Afghanistan days ago, allegedly in response to the Afghan government’s call to help defeat Taliban. In response, the spokesperson for Taliban,SuhailShaheen said they welcome India to continue its assistance and reconstruction work in Afghanistan after Taliban takes power, but it should not provide any military support for the government forces.
英国国防大臣华莱士7月13日在接受《每日电讯报》采访时表示，若塔利班入主阿富汗政府，英国将与其合作。华莱士称：“无论是哪方执政，只要它遵守特定国际规范，英国政府都会与之接触。”在采访中，华莱士称：“塔利班迫切需要国际认可。他们需要资金投资国家建设，如果一直被定位为恐怖分子，塔利班将无法实现这一目标。”
In an interview with The Daily Telegraph on July 13, British Defense Minister Ben Wallace said London will work with Taliban if it takes over the Afghan government, saying that the British government would engage with any party that comes in power as long as it observes international rules. He added that Taliban is in urgent need of international recognition and capital for national construction, a goal that’s impossible to achieve if it continues to be designated as a terrorist organization.
前景扑朔迷离
Gloomy prospects
总的来看，近期阿富汗局势持续趋紧，外部势力干预加剧，其罪魁祸首就是美国的阿富汗政策。在美国当“甩手掌柜”后，阿富汗安全形势面临更多变数，和平前景愈发渺茫。
In sum, the culprit for the tightening situation and aggravated foreign interference in Afghanistan recently is America’s Afghan policy. After it packs up and leaves the country in ruin, Afghanistan’s security situation will face more uncertainties and the prospects of peace are dimmer.
政治局势将持续动荡。有分析人士认为，由于失去美军强力支持，阿富汗政府军未来很难有效抵挡塔利班的猛烈攻势，阿富汗军事政治局势的不确定性骤增。
Political turbulence lingers. Analysts said the Afghan government forces will hardly put up any effective resistance against Taliban’s overwhelming attacks now that they have lost the strong support from American troops, adding fuel to the flame of military and political instability in Afghanistan.
恐怖主义或将“复活”。美《华尔街日报》评论称，美国不负责任的撤军导致阿富汗安全形势恶化，或将让这个国家再度成为恐怖主义的温床。极端组织“伊斯兰国”等可能再次将其作为据点，这对阿富汗和周边国家来说都是巨大灾难。
Terrorism may come back. Wall Street Journal commented that America’s irresponsible withdrawal of troops has aggravated the security situation in Afghanistan and may turn the country into a hotbed of terrorism again. The extremist organization Islamic State (IS) may rebuild its foothold here, which will be catastrophic for Afghanistan and its neighbors.
外部力量或将“扎堆”。美国的撤军给中亚地区留下巨大“权力真空”。下一步，俄罗斯、英国、土耳其等域外势力以及印度等近邻或将进一步加大介入力度。同时，拜登政府也不会坐视中亚旁落他人之手，未来或将在阿周边地区采取新的示强举措，相关动向值得持续关注。
Foreign forces will crowd. American troops pulling back has left a huge “power vacuum” in central Asia, where foreign forces like Russia, Britain and Turkey and close neighbors like India may step up their interference. At the same time, the Biden administration won’t sit idle while watching central Asia falling into the hands of others. It may adopt new and aggressive measures in regions around Afghanistan, and its movements should be closely and consistently watched.
