梓辛
By Zi Xin
瑞典斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所近日发布的年度报告显示，截至2021年年初，全球核弹头数量总体减少，但部署于作战部队的核弹头数量有所增加。核弹头数量的变化事关全球核安全，国际社会对此高度关注。
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) recently released its annual report, which showed that by early 2021, the world’s total number of nuclear warheads has decreased, but more nuclear warheads have been deployed in combat forces. It has captured close attention in the international community as such changes concern global nuclear security.
下降趋势停滞
Decrease of nuclear warheads stalls
6月14日，瑞典斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所发布报告称，2021年年初，全球核弹头数量约为13080枚，较上一年的13400枚有所减少，其中，俄罗斯和美国分别拥有6255枚和5550枚核弹头，两国总和约占全球总数的90%。尽管全球核弹头总数减少，但部署于作战部队的核弹头从上一年的3720枚增加至3825枚，其中约2000枚处于全面作战准备状态。
SIPRI’s report released on June 14 said that there were about 13,080 nuclear warheads around the world at the beginning of 2021, down from last year’s 13,400, and about 90% of them were owned by Russia (6,255 nuclear warheads) and the US (5,550). Although the total number decreased a little, the number of those deployed in combat forces increased from 3,720 to 3,825, including about 2,000 in full combat readiness.
斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所高级研究员克里斯滕森在报告中写道，这是一个令人担忧的迹象，表明全球核武数量下降趋势已经停滞。他提到，“尽管特朗普政府时期的核战略已成为过去式，但拜登政府明确发出信号，继续推进压倒性的核现代化计划”。
SIPRI’s senior researcher Kristensen wrote in the report that the deployment of more nuclear warheads is an upsetting sign because it means the falling trend of nuclear arsenal has stalled. He mentioned that although the nuclear strategy of Trump’s term is in the past, the Biden administration has sent clear signals that it will continue to push the overwhelming nuclear modernization program.
美俄展开博弈
US-Russia game
近年来，全球核武器正在向实战化迈进。部署于作战部队的3825枚核弹头中，美国有1800枚，俄罗斯有1625枚，相比上一年度，两国各增加约50枚。造成此局面的原因主要有两方面。
Nuclear weapons have been increasingly deployed for realistic combat in recent years. Of the 3,825 nuclear warheads that are deployed, the US has 1,800 and Russia 1,625, each having about 50 more compared with the previous year. There are mainly two reasons for this.
一方面，美国对战术核武器追求不断。2018年特朗普政府发布的《核态势评估报告》首次公开两款低当量核弹头，美国为发展战术核武器投入上千亿美元。特朗普执政期间，“核武实战论”在美国内愈演愈烈，其大力发展低当量新型战术核武器，目的是将战略核武器更新换代为战术核武器。这种行为降低了核武器的使用门槛，大幅增加核战争发生的可能。
The first reason is America’s endless pursuit of tactical nuclear weapons. The Nuclear Posture Review released by the Trump government in 2018 mentioned two types of low-equivalent nuclear warheads for the first time and said the country had invested more than 100 billion dollars on tactical nuclear weapons. During Trump’s term, there was a growing call for using nuclear weapons in realistic combats, and the country has strongly developed low-equivalent tactical ones to replace strategic nuclear weapons. This will lower the threshold of using them and largely increase the possibility of a nuclear war.
另一方面，俄罗斯在未来武器方面不断取得突破。为应对美国的安全威胁，与美国进行核对抗，俄罗斯积极发展核动力无人潜航器、核动力巡航导弹等一系列新概念战略武器。2012年至2020年，俄罗斯战略核力量现代化列装率从37%增至86%。在美国频频挑战俄罗斯安全利益的背景下，俄军优先发展对美国形成不对称优势的核力量，旨在增加与美国战略博弈的筹码。
Another reason is Russia’s constant breakthroughs in weapon development. To respond to the security threats from the US and counter its nuclear deterrence, Russia has actively developed a series of new strategic weapons such as the nuclear-powered unmanned underwater vehicles and the nuclear-powered cruise missiles. From 2012 to 2020, the ratio of Russia’s modern strategic nuclear forces went up from 37% to 86%. As Washington is constantly challenging Moscow’s security interests, Moscow’s priority to developing nuclear forces that form asymmetrical advantages over the rival gives it more cards in hand in their strategic struggles.
美国应为全球战略稳定作出改变
US should change course to contribute to global strategic stability
当前，全球不确定性风险不断增加，部分地区冲突依然存在。在此背景下，美国持续推进核武器实战化，威胁国际安全。对此，国际社会已达成普遍共识，致力于共同维护核安全，美国也应为全球战略稳定作出改变。
At present, there are more uncertainties around the world and regional conflicts linger. Against such a background, America’s sustained promotion of nuclear weapons for realistic combat poses a serious threat to international security. The international community has reached a consensus on jointly maintaining nuclear security, and it urges the US to change course in order to keep global strategic stability.
首先，转变安全规则。目前美国所秉持的安全规则，大部分是冷战遗留物，其不断渲染大国威胁，推进军事冒进行动，增加核战争爆发风险。在国际社会倡导共同安全，坚持多边主义的背景下，美国也应摒弃冷战思维，用合作共赢代替零和博弈。
First, the US should change its security rules. The security rules currently upheld by the US are mostly remnants left from the Cold War, which exaggerate threats from major powers, stoke military adventurism, and increase the risk of a nuclear war breaking out. As the international community is upholding common security and multilateralism, Washington should also abandon its Cold-War mentality and replace the zero-sum game with win-win cooperation.
其次，核武器去合法化。根据美国防部计划，美军在未来几年将花费超过1万亿美元维护和重建核武库。核武器不应是威胁他国的手段，“战略力量”并非核打击力量，“延伸威慑”并非延伸核威慑。国际舆论普遍认为，美国应把更多精力投入核裁军，将其从战略核心位置逐渐边缘化，而不是一味发展核力量。
Second, the US should de-legalize its nuclear weapons. According to the plan of the US Department of Defense, the US military will spend more than 1 trillion dollars in the next few years maintaining and rebuilding its nuclear arsenal. Nuclear weapons should not be the means of threatening other countries, “strategic forces” should not mean nuclear attack forces, and “extended deterrence” should not mean nuclear deterrence. It is generally believed that the US should spend more energy on nuclear disarmament and marginalizing its nuclear weapons from the strategic key position rather than develop them with such intensity.
再次，维护军控体系。目前美俄《反导条约》《中导条约》《开放天空条约》相继失效，《新削减战略武器条约》虽已确认延长，但后续谈判尚未出现任何进展，军控体系不断受到单边主义“退群”冲击，对核武器制造与部署的约束能力大幅降低。为此，各国均呼吁美国重返国际军控体系，为维护全球战略稳定，改善国际战略安全环境履行应有责任。
Third, the US should maintain the arms control system. The three nuclear arms control treaties between the US and Russia – the Treaty on the Limitation of Anti-Ballistic Missile Systems, Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, and Treaty on Open Skies – have all failed. Although the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty(New START) has been renewed and extended, follow-up negotiations have not yielded any progress yet. The arms control system is so frequently hit by unilateral “exit” that its restriction upon the manufacturing and deployment of nuclear weapons has been greatly undermined. Therefore, countries in the world are calling for the US to return to the international arms control system and fulfill its due responsibilities for maintaining global strategic stability and improving the world’s strategic security environment.
