By Liu Zhongmin
刘中民
Unidentified gunmen attacked two villages in western Niger, killing about 100 people on January 2. This incident brought international terrorism, which remains relatively silent under the pandemic, to the attention of the international community. In fact, the global counter-terrorism sees undercurrents lurking and even situation rebounding under cover of the pandemic in some regions. The utilitarian and passive anti-terrorism policies of the US and other countries have also made the international counter-terrorism situation more complicated.
1月2日，不明身份的持枪者袭击了尼日尔西部的两个村庄，造成约100人死亡。这一事件使疫情下相对沉寂的国际恐怖主义引起国际社会的注意。事实上，2020年的国际反恐形势貌似受到疫情的抑制，事实上却仍暗流涌动，甚至在局部地区出现恐怖主义借疫情掩护反弹的情况。美国等国家反恐政策的功利化和消极化也使国际反恐形势更加复杂。
No large-scale terrorist attack occurred in 2020 due to the pandemic. All countries are turning their human, material, and financial resources to fight the COVID-19 pandemic and reduced their anti-terrorism investment. Terrorist organizations, especially the Islamic State, are able to rebuild in secret. Affected by factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the presidential election, and the strategic contraction in the Middle East, US counter-terrorism policies have become increasingly negative and utilitarian, which also contributed to the development of terrorism.
因为疫情的缘故，世界在2020年并未发生大规模恐怖袭击，各国都在将人力、物力和财力转向抗击新冠疫情而减少反恐投入，恐怖组织尤其是“伊斯兰国”得以在暗中重建，而美国受新冠疫情、大选以及在中东地区进行战略收缩等因素的影响，其反恐政策日趋消极和功利，也助长了恐怖主义的发展。
At the same time, the inherent conflicts in Syria, Libya, and Yemen have been dragging on for a long time. New hot issues such as the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan have emerged one after another. This also provided conditions for the development of terrorism, especially the cross-border movement of "jihadists". Moreover, the economic and social crisis, especially the crisis of people's livelihood caused by the pandemic, is more conducive to recruiting terrorist organizations in the long run. Affected by this, the recovery and reconstruction of the terrorist forces and even the momentum of the rebound of terrorist attacks in the Middle East and South Asia cannot be underestimated.
与此同时，叙利亚、利比亚、也门等固有冲突久拖不决，亚美尼亚和阿塞拜疆的纳卡冲突等新的热点问题层出不穷，也为恐怖主义的发展尤其是为“圣战”分子跨国流动提供了条件。而且，疫情造成的经济与社会危机尤其是民生危机，从长期来看更有利于恐怖组织的人员招募。受此影响，中东和南亚恐怖势力的复苏重建乃至恐怖袭击反弹的势头不容小觑。
In addition, the vicious interaction between European right-wing forces and radical Islamic forces has also continued to deepen the chronic diseases of terrorism and extremism in Europe.
此外，欧洲右翼势力和激进伊斯兰势力的恶性互动也使欧洲恐怖主义、极端主义的痼疾持续加深。
The adverse effects brought about by the increasingly negative and utilitarian counter-terrorism policies of the US also require in-depth study and judgment.
美国反恐政策日趋消极和功利，带来的负面影响也需要深入研判。
First, the US continues to withdraw its troops in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria. Although it maintains a flexible policy of increasing and decreasing in different periods, the general trend is contracting. The current deterioration of the counter-terrorism situation in Iraq is closely related to this reason.
第一，美国继续在阿富汗、伊拉克、叙利亚撤军，尽管不同时期维持有增有减的弹性政策，但其总体趋势是继续收缩，当前伊拉克反恐形势的恶化与此密切相关。
Second, US policy of helping and fighting against the Taliban forces in Afghanistan contributes to instability in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Even the possibilities of internal divisions within the Taliban and the reorganization of extremist forces in South Asia cannot be ruled out.
第二，美国对阿富汗塔利班又拉又打的政策，难以实现阿富汗和巴基斯坦局势的稳定，甚至不排除塔利班的分化以及南亚极端势力的重组。
Third, the US’s assassination of the general of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, its unbridled favoritism towards Israel on the Palestinian issue, and the advancing of the reconciliation between Arab countries and Israel regardless of the rights of Palestine are all negative approaches which can stimulate terrorism.
第三，美国暗杀伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队将军的“国家恐怖主义”做法，以及在巴勒斯坦问题上对以色列肆无忌惮的偏袒，置巴勒斯坦权益于不顾强势推进阿拉伯国家与以色列和解等行为，都是刺激恐怖主义的消极做法。
Fourth, the US links China's counter-terrorism and de-radicalization policies with human rights issues, slanders and accuses China, and uses the stigmatizing link as a tool for the strategic competition with China.
第四，美国把中国的反恐、去极端化政策与人权问题挂钩，对我们横加污蔑和指责，是把反恐与人权挂钩作为与中国进行战略博弈的工具。
(The author is a professor of the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University)
（作者是上海外国语大学中东研究所教授）
