Substantial changes of international security ecology
国际安全生态发生质变
The frequency and intensity of the use of force by various countries is an important indicator of the international strategic situation. During the 10-plus years after the end of the Cold War, the US was the only major country that was constantly at war with several middle-sized or small countries in succession. In 2008, Russia began to fight back against Georgia with armed forces, and other regional powers resorted to force too after 2014. In 2020, the armed forces users have expanded from world or regional powers to many middle-sized or small countries, implying substantial changes in the international security ecology.
各国使用武力的频率和强度是衡量国际战略形势的重要指标。“冷战”结束的10余年中，只有美国一个大国在打仗，连续打了几个中小国家。2008年开始，俄罗斯动武反击格鲁吉亚。2014年之后，一些地区大国也动武了。今年，不仅世界大国、地区大国敢于运用武力，许多中小国家也开始使用武力，国际安全生态正在发生质变。
Conflicts over the territorial dispute
因强力争控领土而出手。
The first is the India-Pakistan conflict. As a regional power, India, however, has triggered several crises because it harbors unrealistic illusions about border territory. In February 2019, the Indian Air Force attacked Pakistan across the Kashmir Line of Actual Control. In 2020, India continued to fortify its actual control in the border area and triggered small-scale skirmishes multiple times, such as in November and December when both sides suffered casualties in the tens during their constant military conflicts in Kashmir.
一是印巴冲突。印度是一个地区大国，但其行事风格、度量属于小国，投机心理突出，对边境地区领土抱有不切实际的幻想，多次引发危机。2019年2月，印度空军曾经越过克什米尔实际控制线袭击巴基斯坦。今年以来，印度继续寻求加强边境地区实际控制，多次引发小规模冲突。例如，11、12月份，印巴在克什米尔多次爆发军事冲突，双方各有数十人伤亡。
The second is the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. From September 27 to November 9, Azerbaijan and Armenia broke into military conflicts in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, leaving more than 4,000 dead, 8,000 injured, and 10,000 homeless. Turkey and Russia paid close attention to the conflicts there. While Istanbul vowed support for Azerbaijan, Moscow actively mediated and sent peacekeepers after the truce agreement was signed, further enhancing its influence in regional affairs.
二是纳卡冲突。9月27日至11月9日，阿塞拜疆与亚美尼亚在纳卡地区爆发军事冲突，造成4000余人死亡、8000余人受伤、数万人流离失所。土耳其、俄罗斯高度关注战事进展，土耳其表示支持阿塞拜疆，俄罗斯积极斡旋并于停火协议签署后派遣维和部队进驻纳卡地区，其对地区事务的影响力进一步增强。
Ceaseless domestic battles and proxy warfare
国内斗争与代理人战争持续进行。
The first is the 10-year-long conflict in Syria. The country's situation has turned for the better since Russia sent troops there, but battles continued from time to time this year with the involvement of the US, Russia, Turkey, and Iran. On the evening of December 6, 2020, a Syrian military armored personnel carrier was bombed by Turkish troops.
一是持续近10年的叙利亚冲突。俄罗斯出兵以来，叙利亚局势向稳定方向发展，但叙利亚处在四战之地，美、俄、土、伊等多国卷入，今年战事仍时有发生。例如，2020年12月6日晚，一辆叙利亚军队装甲运兵车被土耳其部队摧毁。
The second is the military conflict in Libya. In April 2019, the Libyan National Army , an armed force mainly controlling the eastern part of the country, launched attacks to occupy the capital Tripoli and came to a standoff with government forces until the first ceasefire agreement was signed in October 2020.
二是利比亚军事冲突。2019年4月利比亚东部武装力量“国民军”发起黎波里争夺战以来，与政府军交火陷入对峙，至2020年10月首次签署停火协议。
The third is the Donbas conflict, which has lasted more than six years in East Europe with conflicts and casualties still counting. In March 2020, Ukraine's rotation troops in Donbas were attacked, and 200 soldiers died. On April 2, the Ukraine Joint Operations Headquarters revealed that about 50 Russian soldiers died in Donbas in March.
三是顿巴斯冲突。在东欧地区，顿巴斯冲突已持续6年多时间，冲突和伤亡事件仍在持续。例如，2020年3月份，乌克兰在顿巴斯轮换部队遭袭，200人阵亡。4月2日，乌克兰联合部队行动总部披露3月份俄罗斯军人在顿巴斯死亡50余人。
The fourth is the conflict in Ethiopia. On November 4, Ethiopia's armed force Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF ) launched a surprise attack on the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) in the State of Tigray, only to be annihilated by ENDF later. The conflict lasted till the end of November, driving hundreds of thousands of people away from home.
四是埃塞俄比亚冲突。11月4日，埃塞俄比亚“提格雷人民解放阵线”武装力量对提格雷州内的联邦国防军基地发动突然袭击，联邦国防军随后对其实施清剿打击，冲突持续至11月底，造成数十万人民流离失所。
Blatant "assassination"
明目张胆地“暗杀”
Assassination occasionally happened in past international struggles, but it became an important approach in 2020. On January 3, the US assassinated Iranian major general Soleimani with a combination of approaches, including human intelligence, UAV monitoring, and assaults, opening the gate of assassinating strategic targets. From July to September, attacks and fires for unknown reasons broke out in multiple places within Iran. On November 27, its chief nuclear scientist Fakhrizadeh was attacked and killed near Tehran. These events have pushed assassination to the strategic forefront and turned it into a blatant means of clearing out targets, which set a very bad example.
在过去的国际斗争中，暗杀偶有发生，而2020年暗杀成为重要手段。1月3日，美国以人力情报、无人机监视和打击手段，击杀伊朗将领苏莱曼尼，打开了暗杀战略目标的闸门。7-9月份，伊朗国内多地出现原因不明的袭击和失火。11月27日，伊朗首席核科学家法赫里扎德在德黑兰附近遭袭身亡。这些事件将暗杀推到了战略前沿，把暗杀变成了明目张胆的击杀，开了很坏的先例。
