Provoking China will not help cure India's 'diseases'

挑衅中国,也治不了印度的 “病”

Source
China Military Online
Editor
Chen Zhuo
Time
2020-09-10 13:00:13
[Photo/VCG]

Indian troops illegally crossed the line into the Shenpaoshan area on the southern bank of the Pangong Lake in the western sector of the China-India border, and outrageously fired shots to threaten the Chinese border patrol personnel who approached them for representations on Monday. The Chinese border troops were forced to take countermeasures to control the situation. The spokesperson for the Western Theater Command of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) pointed out that India's actions seriously violated the relevant agreements and deals between China and India, pushed up regional tensions, and can easily cause misunderstandings and misjudgments. These are serious military provocations of a very bad nature. China requires India to immediately stop dangerous actions, immediately withdraw personnel that crossed the border, strictly restrain front-line troops, and thoroughly investigate and prosecute personnel who fired shots to ensure that similar incidents do not happen again, said the spokesperson.

9月7日,印军非法越线进入中印边境西段班公湖南岸神炮山地域,并悍然对前出交涉的中国边防部队巡逻人员鸣枪威胁,中国边防部队被迫采取应对措施稳控现地局势。中国人民解放军西部战区新闻发言人指出,印方行径严重违反中印双方有关协议协定,推高地区紧张局势,极易造成误解误判,是严重的军事挑衅行为,性质非常恶劣。中方要求印方立即停止危险行动,立即撤回越线人员,严格约束一线部队,严肃查处鸣枪挑衅人员,确保不再发生类似事件。

Recently, India's repeated aggressive moves on the China-India border may temporarily instigate domestic nationalist sentiments and cover up the double-strike crisis of the severe pandemic and economic recession, but it cannot shift the deep-seated contradictions in India.

最近一段时间,印度方面在中印边界反复做出冒进举动,或许能一时煽动国内民族主义情绪、暂时掩盖疫情严峻和经济衰退双重夹击的危机,但却无法转嫁印度国内深层次矛盾。

2020 marks the 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and India. However, the Indian side repeatedly took actions that undermine the development of China-India relations.

2020年是中印建交70周年,对两国关系而言尤为重要,但印方却多次做出有损中印关系发展的举动。

"Not an inch of Chinese territory can be lost, and China's military is fully determined, capable and confident to safeguard China's sovereignty and territorial integrity," said General Wei Fenghe, State Councilor and Minister of National Defense in a meeting with his Indian counterpart in Moscow, Russia. It is by no means an empty talk. China's GDP is about five times that of India, and China's military power is much stronger than India's.

“中国的领土一寸也不能丢,中国军队完全有决心、有能力、有信心维护国家主权和领土完整。”中国国务委员兼国防部长魏凤和日前与印度防长在莫斯科会晤时的表态绝不是一句空话。中国GDP大约是印度的5倍、中国的军事力量比印度强大得多,这一切决定了印方胆敢对中方开“第一枪”,中方就不会给其开“第二枪”的机会。

So what does India want on the fringe of military adventure? Behind this, it is the so-called "Forward Policy" factors of the Indian government unilaterally changing the status quo of border control, a right-leaning climate in India's domestic political ecology, and India's political speculative psychology under the changing international geopolitical environment. The most direct and urgent reason is the pressure of maintaining domestic stability of India.

在军事冒险的边缘疯狂试探,印度图什么?这背后,是印度政府单方改变边控现状的所谓“前进政策”因素、印度国内政治生态右倾化的大气候、国际地缘政治环境变化下印度政治投机心理等种种原因叠加的结果。其中,最直接最紧迫的原因,是印度国内的维稳重压。

As of September 7, local time, the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in India exceeded 4.2 million. India surpassed Brazil and has the second-highest number of COVID-19 cases in the world, the second most diagnosed country in the world, according to Indian media reports. According to the number of current daily new cases, India may surpass the US in the next six weeks to become the country with the largest number of confirmed COVID-19 cases. While the domestic pandemic situation has become more severe, the Indian economy has also experienced a severe recession. According to data released by India's Central Statistics Office on August 31, its national economy plunged by 23.9 percent in the second quarter of this year due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. This is India's worst quarterly economic contraction since the release of relevant data in 1996.

据印度媒体报道,截至当地时间9月7日,印度的新冠肺炎确诊人数超过420万,一举超越巴西,成为世界确诊第二多的国家,而且还有专家分析称,按照目前每日新增病例数量来看,印度或将在未来6星期后超过美国,成为确诊人数最多的国家。在国内疫情状况愈发严峻的同时,印度经济也出现了严重衰退。根据印度中央统计局8月31日发布的数据显示,受新冠肺炎疫情影响,今年二季度印度经济大幅下滑23.9%。这是印度从1996年开始发布相关数据以来,最严重的季度经济收缩。

The unsatisfactory response to the pandemic and the difficulty of restarting the economy has become the Achilles’ heel of the Modi administration, which has been slammed by opposition parties. However, the Modi government's options are extremely limited. Against this background, India has tried to temporarily pacify the domestic political opposition and the people's grievances, and maintain the political and social stability, through repeatedly making provocative moves on the border issue, creating a tense atmosphere of military confrontation between China and India, introducing policies to suppress China.

应对疫情不利和难以重启经济已成莫迪政府的软肋,并被在野党攻击,但莫迪政府的选项又极为有限。在这样的背景下,印度试图通过反复在边界问题上做出挑衅举动,制造中印军事对抗的紧张氛围,以及出台制华政策等,临时安抚国内政治反对派和民众骚动情绪与怨气,维持疫情折磨下的政治与社会稳定。

Besides, the Indian government also intends to promote the process of De-Sinicization in the country by provoking China and speculating on issues related to China. The Modi government has been implementing the "Made in India" plan since 2014, but it is difficult to change the status quo of relying on Chinese imports for electronic products, auto parts, furniture, and other products. At the same time, the Modi government is also well aware that it cannot completely decouple from China, especially in the context of the current pandemic, which will only bring about greater economic difficulties and social unrest. The Indian government's wishful thinking is to provoke China and incite hatred towards China, develop conditions for domestic products to replace Chinese goods and complete a forced substitution of "Chinese goods". It hopes, by so doing, a "big turnaround" for India’s national industries will be enabled.

除此之外,印度政府也有意借挑衅中国、炒作中国议题,来推动国内的“去中国化”的进程。莫迪政府自2014年起开始推行“印度制造”计划,但却难以改变在电子产品、汽车零部件、家具等产品方面都依赖中国进口的现状,同时莫迪政府也深知无法与中国“全面脱钩”,特别是在当前疫情背景下,只会带来更大的经济困境和社会动荡。印度政府的“如意算盘”是,通过挑衅中国、煽动对华仇视情绪,为本国产品替代“中国货”培育土壤,完成对“中国货”的一次强行替代,部分实现印度产业“大翻身”。

However, no matter how carefully India has planned, trying to provoke China to shift domestic contradictions is tantamount to” drinking poison to quench thirst”. Although there are changes in international political situation, and India now sees temptation of taking advantage of changes in the external situation and arbitraging China, it cannot change the fundamental fact: China and India are neighbors that cannot be moved away. As the only two countries with a population of one billion in the world, solving the problem of domestic inequality and inadequate economic and social development should become the overriding concern. India obviously sees more burdens and difficulties than China in solving domestic economic and social development issues. Not only can India not bear the price of breaking the peace, provoking China will not help cure India's "diseases."

不过,不管印度的“小算盘”打得再响,试图用挑衅中国的方式转嫁国内矛盾都无异于饮鸩止渴。无论国际政治风云如何变幻、无论在印度看来利用外部形势变化向中国套利的诱惑有多大,都无法改变一个根本事实:中印是搬不走的邻居。作为世界上仅有的两个10亿人口级别大国,解决国内不平等不均衡不充分的经济社会发展问题应当成为压倒一切的首要关切。在解决国内经济社会发展问题上,印度显然比中国包袱更大、困难更多。印度不仅承受不了打破和平的代价,挑衅中国也治不了印度的“病”。

Disclaimer: This article is originally published on haiwainet.cn, which is the website of Overseas Edition of the People's Daily. The article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information, ideas or opinions appearing in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.

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