By Yang Chun
After reaching an agreement with Turkey in August on setting up a "safe zone" in north Syria, US President Donald Trump recently gave a green light for Turkey to attack north Syria, which has triggered intense repercussions and concerns about the future situation in the Middle East.
Trump tries to shake off the burden
Turkish president Erdogan announced October 5th that Turkey would shortly launch military operations in the east of the Euphrates in north Syria to clear out the Kurdish armed forces there and set up a "safe zone". Trump and Erdogan had a phone call on October 6th to discuss the north Syrian situation, and the White House released a statement that evening saying that the US military won't support or be involved in this operation, nor will it stay in the region since it had already defeated the IS. Besides, Turkey will be responsible for handling the thousands of IS extremist prisoners recently held at the Kurdish detention house.
Trump then defended the White House by tweeting on October 7th that the US hasn't abandoned the Kurds, but has provided it with lots of money and equipment so that they could jointly fight against the extremist IS. Now that the anti-terror warfare has subsided, the Kurds within Syrian borders must be "clear about the situation". The president also warned Turkey not to take advantage of his decision and "cross the line" in north Syria and Washington will "destroy" its economy if it enters the "prohibited area".
AP reported on October 8th that there are about 1,000 American soldiers in north Syria at present, who may all withdraw if a large-scale military conflict breaks out between Turkey and Kurdish forces. The New York Times reported on the same day that some American soldiers have already pulled back from the two observation posts on Turkey-Syria border.
"Ladder-kicking move" being bashed
It is generally held that Trump's unexpected decision is neither consistent with the rules of international relations nor beneficial for regional peace. British newspaper The Guardian commented that the White House's "ladder-kicking move" of "green-lighting" Istanbul's attacks in north Syria had infuriated the Kurds, and their Syrian Democratic Forces accused the Americans of "kicking down the ladder" since they had lost over 10,000 soldiers in the fight against the IS armed forces in Syria.
Syria, Russia and Iran condemned the US for its actions. Russian presidential press secretary emphasized that all foreign military forces that "existed illegally" should withdraw from Syria, while Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif said Syria cannot achieve real lasting peace unless "territorial integrity is respected".
Actually Trump's "rash decision" was criticized in his own country too. Many Republicans, including the Senate Republican leader McConnell and America's former representative to the United Nations Haley, also accused Trump of throwing the Kurds under the bus after they played such an important role in fighting the IS. Major General Michael K. Nagata, former Special Operations commander of the US Central Command, said abandoning thousands of IS prisoners will not only seriously disrupt America's plan to obtain from them the inside information about IS, but will also give other countries the opportunity to enhance their influence in the Middle East.
Regional situation becoming more uncertain
Analysts pointed out that Trump wanted to further cut military presence and expenditure in the Middle East and focus more on domestic affairs and the 2020 presidential election, in addition to tightening the bilateral relations with Turkey.
His decision pushed Turkey to carry out military operations more quickly. Erdogan announced on October 9th that Turkish armed forces and Syrian National Army launched the Operation Peace Spring that day against the extremist organization and Kurdish armed forces in north Syria. Video showed large groups of Syrians fleeing the air-strike areas in a hurry. On the other hand, as Syrian Democratic Forces will focus on fighting the Turkish troops, the thousands of IS prisoners under their custody will very likely "break prison", undermining the regional situation and probably "reshuffling" the major-country game in the Middle East. It's worth consistent attention whether America's "betrayal" will push Syrian Democratic Forces to negotiate with the Bashar regime and even turn to Russia and Iran.
