U.S.-Russia competition Intensified in the Balkans

Source
China Military Online
Editor
Xu Yi
Time
2019-03-22 15:20:27

By Ruan Guangfeng

Recently, NATO’s 29 members have signed an accession protocol with Macedonia at the military alliance’s headquarters in Brussels. After the accord was ratified by allied governments, North Macedonia(The Republic of Macedonia officially changed the name into the Republic of North Macedonia since Feb 12,2019) will become the 30th member of NATO, marking a step closer to NATO’s eastward expansion. However, this move will likely escalate the competition between the U.S.-led alliance and Russia.

Macedonia insisted on joining NATO in order to boost its economic growth at a greater pace and insure its national security. However, this move will unquestionably raise tensions between the west and Russia, getting North Macedonia drawn into the vortex of geopolitical competitions between great powers.

Due to its geographical significance, North Macedonia’s accession will help NATO to further control the Balkans and reduce Russia’s strategic space. The landlocked country has borders with Bulgaria to the east, Greece to the south, Albania to the west and Serbia to the north and occupies a core location in the Balkans. A window of the region toward the Mediterranean in the south, Macedonia has long been an important trade and military hub and a must passage for NATO to expand eastward.

For this reason, NATO has spared no effort to win over Macedonia. The US has provided aids valuing a total of about US$750 million for Macedonia since 1991. Currently, the Balkans still faces the Kosovo issue and the Bosnian conflict. This time, NATO successfully solved the dispute between Macedonia and Greece, which can serve as a useful reference to assist in the Balkan countries to NATO or EU integration, thus further weakening Russia’s influence on the Balkans. The US even declared that “Macedonia’s accession into NATO is one of Russia’s worst nightmares,” which clearly indicated its strategic intention of “collaborating Europe against Russia.”

In Russia’s eyes, NATO’s eastward expansion undermines the regional balance and severely threatens its national security. Russia has long considered the Balkans part of its sphere of influence. With the accession of Bulgaria, Romania, Montenegro and Macedonia into NATO, Russia is worried that this might create a domino effect of ushering Georgia, Bosnia and Herzegovina who have also already aspired to join NATO to rush for participation.

Thus, Russia has voiced strong opposition to Macedonia’s entry into NATO, calling this another grave provocation. It firmly opposes NATO to “continue pushing its infrastructure and even the entire military alliance toward Russia’ border” and pointed out that this may cause Macedonia to “lose its independent decision-making right in diplomatic affairs and increase its national defense expenditures for undertaking due proportions of NATO’s military spending.”

Facing the pressure from the continuous enlargement of NATO, Russia is likely to react fiercely. Not long ago, Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu pointed out that the growing military strength of NATO undermines the current international security system, and Russia would be forced to take countermeasures. He also announced that Russia would reinforce its troops in its Western Military District.

In recent years, Russia has constantly strengthened its nuclear power and accelerated the development of new-concept weapons. Some advanced weapons have been successfully developed or even put into commission, such as the S-500 air defense missile system, the Kinzhal hypersonic missile, which can hit speeds of up to Mach 10, the nuclear-powered 9M730 Burevestnik (SSC-X-9 “SKYFALL”) cruise missile and the nuclear-powered unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV), also known as the Poseidon.

It is predictable that the strategic competitions between Russia and NATO will remain complex and continue a spiral tit-for-tat exchange for a long time, and the confrontation between the US and Russia is likely to intensify.

It needs to point out that a growing organization inevitably faces a paradox between size and cohesion. With the increase of NATO members, due to their different economic development levels, ethnic and religious conditions and security concerns, those countries’ reliance on NATO also varies. As a result, their willingness to share defense expenditures of the military alliance is also different. In this context, the contradictions and differences of NATO members are becoming increasingly obvious, adding the burden and the difficulty of internal coordination and even causing an overall decline of its influence.

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