Analysis: Is new NDPG easing constitutional limits on Japan's military?

解读新版《防卫计划大纲》:日本军事正日益“松绑”?

Source
China Military Online
Editor
Li Jiayao
Time
2019-01-03
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By Zhuang Junlang

庄俊朗

The Cabinet of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe approved the new National Defense Program Guidelines (NDPG) and the Mid-Term Defense Program (MTDP) on December 18.

The revision includes turning existing ships into aircraft carriers, developing “multi-dimensional integrated defense forces” including space and cyber forces, and further strengthening the US-Japan alliance. This is another revision of the National Defense Program Guidelines by the Abe government since 2013.

12月18日,日本政府举行内阁会议,批准了新版《防卫计划大纲》以及《中期防卫力量整备计划》,内容包含现有舰艇航母化、发展太空、网络等“多次元统合防卫力量”,以及进一步强化美日同盟等。这是安倍政府自2013年以来,再一次对《防卫计划大纲》进行修订。

Japan’s move in the defense field has caused concerns and worries among neighboring countries. Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying urged Japan to keep its commitment to the “exclusively defense-oriented” strategy, stay committed to the path of peaceful development and act cautiously in the area of military security at a regular press conference on December 18.

日本在防务领域的动向,引起了邻国的关注与忧虑。12月18日,在中国外交部例行记者会上,外交部发言人华春莹敦促日方“坚持‘专守防卫’的政策承诺,坚持走和平发展道路,在军事安全领域慎重行事”。

Noh Kyu-duk, the Republic of Korea’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, also said at a press briefing that Japan should abide by the spirit of its pacifist Constitution and dedicate itself to regional peace and stability, according to reports from the Japan Times.

同时据《日本时报》报道,韩国外交部发言人鲁圭德也在例行记者会称:“日本防务应当恪守其‘和平宪法’的精神,致力于区域和平与稳定。”

The worries of China and the Republic of Korea have hit the nail on the head. The introduction of the new version of the National Defense Program Guidelines shows that the Japanese government is gradually renouncing its pacifist Constitution and its “exclusively defense-oriented” commitment. Both the transformation from “destroyer” to “aircraft carrier” and the new high military budget show Abe’s ambition to loosen constitutional restrictions on military.

中韩两国的忧虑一针见血。新版《防卫计划大纲》的出台,显示日本政府正一步步背弃《和平宪法》与“专守防卫”的承诺。无论是 “驱逐舰”的“航母化”,还是又一次创下新高的军事预算,都正表现着安倍“军事松绑”的野心。

The “de-facto” aircraft carrier

“事实上”的航母

The full text of the new National Defense Program Guidelines issued by Japan has more than 23,000 words and none of them mentioned the word “aircraft carrier.” (or くうぼ in Japanese).

However, one paragraph in the middle of the outline reveals that such goal exists, as these 198 words refer to the “flexible use” of fighter jets which are capable of short and vertical take-offs, and corresponding measures to make these fighter jets be able to operate from existing ships. Such definition really sounds like that of an aircraft carrier.

日本出台的这份《防卫计划大纲》全文共2万3千多字,其中没有一处提到过“航母”(空母)二字。然而夹在大纲中间的其中一个段落还是露出了端倪:这198个字提及的是对短距离起飞/垂直起飞战机的“灵活运用”,并且采取相应措施,使得“在必要的场合中,这些战机可以从现有的船舰中进行操作”——没有比这更像是对“航母”的定义了。

Professor Zhou Yongsheng of the Institute of International Relations at China Foreign Affairs University said: “Japan called it (the converted ship) a multi-purpose frigate. In fact, it is essentially a multi-purpose aircraft carrier.”

“日本把它(改造后的船舰)叫做‘多用途护护卫舰’,实际上它本质上就是多用途航母。”外交学院国际关系研究所教授周永生说。

“By transforming a frigate into an attack aircraft carrier, Japan actually has the capability to use force overseas,” said Lv Yaodong, director of the Institute of Japanese Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

社科院日本所主任吕耀东说,“通过把护卫舰改造成攻击性的航母,日本事实上具备了在海外动用武力的能力。”

Kyodo News, a news agency in Japan, reported that the conversion of the Izumo helicopter destroyer and the separation from the “exclusively defense-oriented” strategy are suspected of being unconstitutional and will be severely questioned.

日本共同社报道称,“出云”号升级为航母,脱离“专守防卫”方针涉嫌违宪,将受到严厉质疑。

This so-called “multi-purpose destroyer” capable of carrying the F-35B will be a far cry from the “helicopter destroyer” in terms of performance. “The helicopter destroyer has no capability to attack the surface fleet as it mainly searches and attacks the submarine,” Zhou said. “Once it is converted into a carrier for fixed-wing aircraft and that the F35-B is on board, it will have a powerful attack capability against surface ships and land forces.”

这种能搭载F-35B的所谓“多功能驱逐舰”,将会与“直升机驱逐舰”在性能上有着天壤之别。“直升机航母没有对水面舰队攻击的能力,它主要对潜艇进行搜索和攻击。”周永生说,“一旦改装成固定翼飞机航母,在F35-B上舰以后,那就对水面舰艇和陆地有了强大的攻击能力。”

Zhou believes that once the transformation is successful, the two de-facto aircraft carriers will pose greater challenges to China’s maritime forces. “The F-35B is a fifth-generation fighter jet while the J-15 is the fourth-generation,” Zhou said, “The F-35B has advantages in stealth capability, supersonic cruise capability, and perception.”

周永生认为,一旦成功改造,这两艘事实上的航母会对中国海上力量形成较大的挑战。“它搭载的F-35B是第五代战机,辽宁号搭载的歼-15是四代机。”周永生说,“F-35B无论是隐形能力、超音速巡航能力,还是感知能力都占有优势。”

Space warfare, electronic warfare and “multi-dimensional integrated defense forces”

太空战、电子战与“多次元统合防卫力量”

In addition to the transformation into aircraft carriers of the Izumo and the Kaga, the National Defense Program Guidelines also proposed a new concept worthy of attention. This time, it proposed the “multi-dimensional integrated defense forces”. Compared with the “integrated defense force” of the previous defense outlines, the new concept has an emphasis on the word “multi-dimensional.”

除了出云号、加贺号的“航母化”之外,此次《防卫计划大纲》还提出了一个值得留意的新概念,那便是“多次元统合防卫力量”。与上一份《防卫计划大纲》的“统合防卫力量”相比,这一次更加强调了“多次元”三个字。

“Integrated mobile defense refers to the integration of traditional sea, land and air capabilities, and the multi-dimensional aspect further involves both space and cyber,” said Lv.

“统合机动防卫力指的是传统的海、陆、空能力的整合,而这次的多次元就是说它进一步涉及到了太空、网络两方面。”吕耀东说。

“Japan has an excuse, namely the recycling of space garbage, making it seems like Japan tries to maintain public space,” said Lv. “But in fact, this so-called orbital debris removal requires the capability to shoot down space junk with giant lasers,” Lv added.

“日本有一个借口,说它是为了应对太空垃圾的回收等,看上去好像是维护公共空间。”吕耀东说,“但事实上,这种所谓的太空垃圾回收,包括需要用激光击落的能力。”

Zhou believes that Japan’s development of space power is actually an imitation of the US, Russia and other countries. In June 2018, The US President Donald Trump asked the US Department of Defense to form the US Space force immediately and said that the US will not only establish a presence, but also a dominant position. Previously, the Russian space force reorganized into an air defense defensive force in 2011. Russia established the Russian Aerospace Forces in 2015.

周永生认为,日本发展太空力量,其实是对美、俄等国的一种效仿。2018年6月,美国总统特朗普要求美国国防部“立刻组建一支美国太空军”,并称美国“不止要建立存在,还要建立统治性的地位。”而在此前,俄罗斯航天部队在2011年便已经改组为空天防御兵,并在2015年与俄罗斯空军合并为新的“俄罗斯空天军”。

The National Defense Program Guidelines also mentioned the importance of “electronic warfare” and Japan plans to expand the Cyber Defense Unit (CDU) by increasing its numbers from an estimated 110 to 1000 soldiers tasked with the nation’s cyber defense.

“Compared with the US, Russia, and China, Japan’s cyber warfare level is relatively weak. As a result, Japan is following the US to establish a small-scale cyber warfare force,” said Zhou.

《防卫计划大纲》也提及了对“电子战”的重视,从约110人扩大到约千人规模的网络防卫队。“与美、俄、中等国相比,日本的网络战水平相对比较薄弱,因此它也是模仿美国,希望建立小规模的网络部队。”周永生说。

In addition to expanding into space warfare, electronic warfare and other fields, the “multiple-dimensional integrated defense force” also emphasizes the horizontal “cross-domain defense system.” “The so-called ‘cross-domain defense system’ is to deploy the Japanese troops to the Indian Ocean in order to be in line with his Indo-Pacific Strategy,” said Zhou.

“多次元统合防卫力量”除了从纵向上扩展到了太空战、电子战等领域,还强调了横向的“跨区域防御体系”。“所谓跨区域的防御体系,就是和他的印太战略相配合,防卫力量要能够投送到印度洋地区。”周永生说。

Is a stronger US-Japan alliance aimed at loosening constitutional restrictions on Japan's military?

美日同盟强化,日本军事“松绑”?

According to the Mid-Term Defense Program, Japan’s military budget for the next five years will reach 27.47 trillion yen (about 1.68 trillion yuan). Its defense budget has been increasing since the second Abe administration in 2012.

Japan’s Sankei Shimbun reported that this figure set a new high in the history of the Japanese military budget, and the reason for the rise in the overall amount is to purchase expensive US equipment.

根据《中期防卫力量整备计划》,日本在未来5年的军事预算总额将达27.47万亿日元(约合1.68万亿元人民币)。自从2012年安倍政府第二次上台以来,防卫费一直在增加。据日本《产经新闻》称,这一数字创造了日本军事预算的新高,而推升总体金额上升的原因,是购买美国生产的昂贵装备。

Lv believes that the transformation of the Izumo, the revision of the National Defense Program Guidelines and the various initiatives by Abe in recent years show that Japan is no longer a country that sticks to “exclusively defense-oriented policy”.

吕耀东认为,出云号的改装、《防卫计划大纲》的修改,连同安倍在近年来的种种举措,说明日本已经不再是过去仅停留于“专守防卫”的国家。

The Japanese National Diet passed the “new security bills” in 2015 and amended 10 laws including the Self-Defense Forces Act. The core of the new security bills is the lifting of the so-called “the right of collective self-defense”.

“In the past, the US was responsible to protect Japan’s security. Now, Japan wants to exercise the rights to collective self-defense for its allies,” said Lv.

2015年,日本国会通过了“新安保法案”,对日本《自卫队法》等10部法律进行修改。而“新安保法案”的核心,就是对所谓的“集体自卫权”进行解禁。 “过去是盟国美国来保护日本的安全,现在日本也要对自己的盟国行使集体自卫权。”吕耀东说。

“The introduction of the National Defense Program Guidelines and the transformation of the Izumo have shown that the so-called ‘defeated Japan’ has already gone,” said Lv.

“这次《防务计划大纲》的出台,以及改造出云号等举动已经显示得很清楚,过去那个所谓‘战败的日本’已经不存在了。”

Some people believe that the US, as the creator of Japan’s pacifist Constitution, will not allow Japan to lift military restrictions or revise the pacifist Constitution. However, Zhou believes that such opinion is a misunderstanding.

Zhou pointed out that the US then Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage publicly denounced the pacifist Constitution as “a barrier to the US-Japan alliance” as early as 2004.

有观点认为,美国作为日本《和平宪法》的缔造者,不会坐视日本一步步进行军事解禁,乃至于修改《和平宪法》,对此周永生认为是一种误读。周永生指出,早在2004年,美国副国务卿阿米蒂奇在一次讲话中公开指斥《和平宪法》是“美日同盟的障碍”。

The stability of the US-Japan relationship is also reflected in the National Defense Program Guidelines. One third of the section on the “Basic Policy on National Defense” is about “the strengthening of Japan-US relations.”

In addition, the National Defense Program Guidelines follows the concept of “Indo-Pacific” concept newly emphasized by the US. The National Defense Program Guidelines emphasizes close ties with India, Australia, and Southeast Asian countries through the “2+2” talks (foreign and defense ministers’ talks).

美日关系的稳固,也在《防卫计划大纲》中有所体现:《防卫计划大纲》在“我国防卫的基本方针”部分中,用了三分之一的部分阐述“日美关系的强化”。此外,《防卫计划大纲》沿袭了美国新近强调的“印太”概念,并且强调凭借“2+2”会谈(外长及防长会谈)等手段,与印度、澳大利亚、东南亚各国等保持密切联系。

Lv believes that the US needs allies to defend its interests in the Asia-Pacific region with its influence relatively declined. “This is the reason why the US has been emphasizing that the Japan-US alliance is the cornerstone of peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region in recent years,” said Lv.

吕耀东认为,在美国的影响力相对下降的情况下,它需要盟国来替它维护亚太地区的利益。“所以这也是为什么近年来,美国一直在强调日美同盟是亚太地区和平稳定的基石。”他表示。

Disclaimer: The author is Zhuang Junlang. The article is published on infzm.com. It is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information, ideas or opinions appearing in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn. Chinamil.com.cn does not assume any responsibility or liability for the same. If the article carries photographs or images, we do not vouch for their authenticity.

声明:本文作者为庄俊朗。由《南方周末》发表,由中国军网英文版编译发布。本文所提供的信息、观点均为作者个人观点,不代表中国军网英文版的观点。中国军网英文版对此不承担任何责任。文内如含有照片或图像,中国军网英文版不保证其真实性。

 

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