Scholar: South Korea gets more losses than gains from THAAD

学者:韩国部署萨德不会受益 反而会输得很惨

Source
China Military
Editor
Zhang Tao
Time
2017-03-09

围绕韩国政府同意美国“萨德”反导系统入韩之事,中国方面已多次表示强烈反对。

BEIJING, Mar. 8 (ChinaMil) --China has repeatedly expressed its strong opposition to the Republic of Korea (ROK)'s agreement to deploying the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile system.

中方政府与民间对此采取的各种反制措施正在陆续出台,此乃十分必要。究其原因,是由于“萨德”入韩,对我腹地的空情军情侦察能力将大为增强。

The Chinese government and the public have taken a series of countermeasures, which is absolutely necessary because the deployment of THAAD will largely enhance the ROK's capability of detecting air and military situation in China's hinterland.

本来,“萨德”部署发生在韩美之间。韩国虽有权请美国协防,但无权协助美损害我国安全。这种后果,不能仅从朝鲜半岛的军事平衡来看。更重要的是,要从东北亚和全球安全平衡的视角来看。

It's true that the deployment of THAAD is a matter between the ROK and the US, but while ROK has the right to ask for America's defense aid, it has no right to aid the US in harming China's security interests. That will not only affect the military balance on the Korean Peninsula, but will also undermine the security balance in northeast Asia and the world at large.

世界主要大国之间存在一定程度的战略平衡,即使是不那么完全对称的平衡。

There is a kind of strategic balance among the major countries in the world, even if it's not completely symmetrical.

如果国际安全失衡,就容易发生冲突甚至战争,其结果是导致新一轮的平衡。譬如,新中国新生时代并无核武器。而美国屡次对我国进行核讹诈,上世纪50年代曾多次扬言对华使用核武器,其直接后果是迫使中国发展自己的核武器,从而构建中美战略平衡。

Imbalance in international security landscape will lead to conflicts and even war, and then a new round of balance. For example, the new China had no nuclear weapon when it was first founded, but the US conducted nuclear blackmail against China over and over and even threatened to use nuclear weapons several times in the 1950s, forcing China to develop its own nuclear weapons in order to form a strategic balance between the two countries.

毫无疑问,中国发展核武不是用来首先威胁美国或任何他国,而是用于威慑针对我国可能发生的核攻击。果然,在中国于1964年首次成功试爆核武之后,美方不再对我国公开进行核威胁。当然,它内部随时都有对华进行核打击的作战计划。

There is no doubt that China's development of nuclear weapons isn't aimed to initiate threat against the US or any other country, but to deter possible nuclear attacks against itself. As expected, after China successfully trial-exploded a nuclear weapon for the first time in 1964, the US never made a public nuclear threat against China again, although it never gave up the plan to launch a nuclear attack against China either.

因此,中国以有限数量的核武器,成功达到与美方之间一定程度的战略平衡。即使中国核武数量与质量都曾远不如美国,但中国拥有核武这一事实本身,就迫使美国政府务实。

Therefore, with a limited amount of nuclear weapons, China successfully formed a strategic balance with the US to some extent. Even if its nuclear weapons are far inferior to America's both in quality and quantity, the possession of them is enough to force the US government to take a more pragmatic stance.

即使美国长期并且仍在中国的核心利益问题上对我国进行挑战,但美方对任何可能引发两国间核冲突的举措仍然比较谨慎,其原因就是中国拥有了使美国不能接受的战略报复能力。

Although the U.S. has long challenged and is still challenging China's core interests, it is very cautious about any step that may cause nuclear conflicts between the two sides because China is capable of strategic retaliation that the U.S. cannot afford to take.

然而,在韩国部署“萨德”系统,则将以陆基为基础的对华、对俄战略侦察能力直接送抵中俄家门口。

But by deploying the THAAD system in ROK, the U.S. can extend the land-based strategic reconnaissance against China and Russia to their doorstep.

因此,在和平时期韩国能协助美国将对华抵近侦察提前几千公里。在危机时刻,在中国一旦受到核攻击而发动战略反击时,此“萨德”雷达将提前半个地球及时侦获军情,从而为太平洋对岸的本土导弹防御多赢得10-20分钟的战略预警时间。

In peacetime, the ROK can help the U.S. to push forward the close-in reconnaissance of China by thousands of kilometers; during crisis, once China launches strategic counterattack in the event of nuclear attack against it, the radar system in THAAD can detect military intelligence half a globe earlier, which will give America's homeland missile defense system on the other side of the Pacific Ocean an extra ten to twenty minutes for strategic early warning.

就是这10-20分钟,将可能严重损害中国战略威慑的有效性,从而影响东北亚与全球的战略平衡。坦诚而言,中美发生严重冲突的可能依然存在。这不是由于中国霸权,而是由于美国坚持损害中国的根本权益所致。

The ten to twenty minutes will seriously undermine the validity of China's strategic deterrence and consequently undermine the strategic balance in northeast Asia and around the world. To be frank, grave conflict between China and the US is still possible, not because China seeks hegemony, but because the U.S. insists on damaging China's fundamental rights and interests.

在中国视为核心利益的问题上,在国家统一与主权完整的问题上,如我国对台湾与钓鱼岛等的主权问题上,美国还在继续甚至强化干预,奥巴马政府是这样,特朗普政府上台伊始也是这样。

The U.S. is continuing and even fortifying the interference in matters concerning China's core interests and its national unity and sovereign integrity, such as China's sovereignty over Taiwan and the Diaoyu Islands. This happened with the Obama administration and the newly elected Trump administration.

在美国政府一再发出错误信息之时,要让台日当局有所清醒,就必须让美国政府首先清醒。中国保持强大的报复性有效战略威慑,就是给白宫最好的战略清醒剂。

While the U.S. government is giving wrong messages repeatedly, China must wake it up from any illusion in order to wake up the Taiwan authority and Japanese government. By maintaining a powerful and effective retaliatory strategic deterrence, China is injecting the White House with the best strategic sobering dose.

韩国因朝鲜发展核导而需建设反导,本身不难理解,问题是要对症下药,建设有度。

ROK's construction of anti-missile system in response to the DPRK's nuclear missile development is understandable, the problem is that it has to take the right and appropriate countermove.

朝鲜对韩威胁的主要来源是强大的火炮与短程导弹能力,对此“萨德”系统根本无能为力。但“萨德”X波段雷达超长的侦察能力,一旦与美国的地区与全球军事系统连接,将导致美国在技术上和观念上取得某种“自由行动”的信心,这才是问题所在。

The DPRK's threat to ROK mainly comes from its powerful artillery and short-range missiles, which the THAAD system cannot deal with. But if the super-long-range reconnaissance capability of the X-band radar in THAAD system is connected with America's regional and global military system, it will give the U.S. the confidence in "freedom of action" both technologically and ideologically. That's the key problem.

如果超级大国率先发动核攻击而又可免遭报复,这样的世界将会失去制衡,这必然助长超级大国的为所欲为。

If a super power takes the initiative to launch nuclear attack and is able to prevent revenge, the world will become out of balance, and the super power will be bolder in doing whatever it wants.

在缺乏制衡的时代,美国本世纪初在伊拉克不是没有为所欲为过。

In an age without balance and check, like in the beginning of this century, the U.S. already did whatever it wanted in Iraq.

中美是两个世界级超大型国家,双方已在经贸和人文交流等领域建立起全面而深厚的合作关系。即便如此,两国之间仍然存在结构性的战略冲突,尤其是在台湾问题上。

As two super powers in the world, China and the U.S. have established a comprehensive and deep cooperative relationship in a wide range of areas, covering economy, trade and people-to-people exchange, but they still have structural strategic conflict, especially on the Taiwan question.

台湾是中国的一部分,这不仅为联合国所承认,也为包括美国在内的世界170多个国家所接受。然而,美国并不愿意就此依照国际法办事。

Taiwan is an integral part of China. This is acknowledged by not only the United Nations but also more than 170 countries around the world including the US. But the US refuses to follow the international law on this matter.

对于属于中国一部分的台湾,美国在中美关系正常化之后的第100天,其国会悍然通过设立公法,扬言“任何对台湾的威胁自动构成对美国的威胁”,并确立美国府会将合作推动保卫台湾的立法。

On the 100th day after the normalization of China-U.S. relations, the American congress passed a bill that "any threat to Taiwan automatically constitutes a threat to the United States", and vowed that the American government and congress would work together to legislate for defending Taiwan.

众所周知,台海两岸尚未统一,台湾地区现任领导人迄今未接受“九二共识”关于一个中国的论述,一些“台独”势力仍在蠢蠢欲动。

It's known to all that the Chinese mainland and Taiwan are not unified yet, the current leader of Taiwan hasn't accepted the statement of "One China" principle in the 1992 Consensus, and some "Taiwan independence" forces are still eager to make trouble.

对此,中国大陆早已颁布《反分裂国家法》,明确在几种条件下大陆将启动针对“台独”的非和平行动。

The Chinese government promulgated the Anti-Secession Law long ago that specified several scenarios under which the Chinese mainland will take non-peaceful actions against "Taiwan independence".

因此,在针对台湾未来的问题上,中美两国的立法都不排除双方有可能发生冲突。这种严重矛盾,在上世纪90年代中期已在台海上演过。

Therefore, when it comes to the future of Taiwan, neither China nor the US excludes the possibility of conflicts, and serious conflicts already took place across the Taiwan Strait in the mid-1990s.

只要“台独”势力继续蔓延,只要“台独”拒绝一中原则,两岸就有可能扣动扳机,中美两国按照各自法律就可能爆发严重冲突,最终可能发生谁都不愿看到的后果。

As long as there are still forces for "Taiwan independence", as long as they continue to refuse the "One China" principle, armed conflicts across the Strait is possible, China and the US may have grave conflicts according to their respective laws, and there may be consequences neither side wishes to see.

那么,保持中美之间的战略平衡,即使非对称的平衡,仍然是保障亚太乃至全球安全的基石。中国并不追求霸权,但中国维护主权并不为过。

Therefore, maintaining the strategic balance between China and the US, even if an asymmetrical balance, remains the cornerstone for the security in Asia Pacific and the world in general.

中国要能成功维权,不能只靠诚意与外交,还要建设强大的威慑,而中国防御性威慑的唯一目的,就是预防对我主权侵犯。

China doesn't seek hegemony, but any action it takes to preserve its sovereignty is totally reasonable. To do that with success, China cannot rely on sincerity and diplomacy alone, but needs to foster powerful and defensive deterrence, whose only purpose is preventing any violation of China's sovereignty.

在新中国诞生初期,中国即使一清二白,仍然成功建设了有限但有效的威慑。今天,在我们吹响“中国梦”号角的时代,已经成为世界第二大经济体。

When the new China was founded, it successfully established limited but effective deterrence despite extreme economic difficulties. Today, Chinese people have sounded the clarion of the "Chinese Dream" and China is the second largest economy in the world.

在韩国就“萨德”问题顽固坚持挺美反中并且屡教不改的情况下,中国一定会举国一致,官民一致,采取必要措施予以反制。

In face of ROK's stubborn insistence on joining with the US against China by deploying the THAAD system, the Chinese society, including the government and the public, is united and determined to take necessary countermeasures.

中国要以实际行动告诉韩美,中国有意志有能力维护我国战略威慑的有效性。

China should take concrete steps to tell the ROK and the US that it is resolved and capable of keeping China's strategic deterrence effective.

这一防御性的威慑,只能加强,不能削弱。任何旨在危害中国合法安全的他国图谋,不仅是中国的威胁,而且损害地区与世界稳定,并与朝鲜半岛无核化的努力背道而驰。

The defensive deterrence can only be strengthened, not weakened. Any foreign country's attempt to harm China's legitimate security will not only threaten China, but also damage regional and global stability and go counter to the efforts for denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula.

中国必须予以坚决反对。韩国部署“萨德”,不仅不会受益,反而会输得很惨。

China will resolutely fight against such attempt. The ROK will in no way benefit from the THAAD. It will suffer tremendous losses for it.

▲(作者沈丁立 复旦大学教授)

Written by Shen Dingli, professor at Fudan University

 

Related News

Continue...