PLA Daily 2003-05-19

　　The number of new SARS cases in Beijing may drop to less than ten a day at the end of May, and less than five by about June 10, said Jin Shuigao, an expert from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) of China, on Sunday.

　　Jin said the prediction was based on the current figures, but since severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) was still not completely understood, uncertainty existed.

　　The decrease in SARS cases would coincide with migrant workers returning to Beijing and students going back to school, so if effective measures were not followed through, the disease could rebound, he warned.

　　Statistics showed that Beijing's cases accounted for 62.3 percent of the national total from April 21 to May 18, while on April 28, the ratio reached 78 percent, the highest figure.

　　Beijing's situation had changed greatly since late April, Jin said, noting that it could be divided into three stages: Apr. 21 to 30 was the first, with a high increase rate of SARS cases; the second was from May 1 to 8 when the number dropped, but remained high; from May 9 till now, Beijing had seen a sharp drop in the number of SARS cases, indicating the measures adopted in late April had been effective, Jin added.

　　(May 18, Xinhuanet)