by Xinhua writer Wang Xiuqiong
BEIJING, May 19 (Xinhua) -- Chinese stood in silence and grief on Monday
afternoon to mourn the tens of thousands of victims of the worst earthquake in
decades, but their sorrows didn't shake their confidence in China's economy,
said analysts.
The stock market opened sharply lower after the 8.0-magnitude quake on May
12, but the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index was down merely 0.6 percent in
the following five trading days, closing at 3,604.76 points on Monday.
Securities analyst Ying Jianzhong attributed the unexpectedly stable
performance of Chinese shares to the anticipation that the quake would not alter
China's overall economic direction.
"The negative effect on the stock market is diminishing," said Ying.
He noted that as relief and recovery work started, demand for daily
necessities, medicine, steel and cement had driven up companies in those
sectors.
The quake would not shake overall confidence in the economy; therefore, the
government would maintain its goals of preventing overheating and curbing
inflation, economist Wang Xiaoguang told Xinhua in an interview on Monday.
"Unlike the Sept. 11 terrorist attack, the catastrophe has not aroused
fears about the national economy, as it was a natural disaster caused by force
majeure and limited to a small area," said Wang.
The People's Bank of China, the central bank, announced last Wednesday a
move to provide 55 billion yuan (about 7.85 billion U.S. dollars) in refinancing
for commercial banks and rural cooperatives in quake regions of Sichuan and
Gansu, in order to increase their liquidity and ability to support disaster
relief and reconstruction.
It also allowed banks in six cities that were hardest hit by the quake to
temporarily keep their deposit reserve ratio at the prevailing level, while
lenders in other regions must raise the ratio on Tuesday to curb excess
liquidity.
"Those measures were just temporary support policies for disaster-hit
regions and did not point to any changes in the government's tight monetary
policy," said Wang.
China has controlled money supply to rein in rising prices and curbed loans
to cool sizzling fixed-asset investment that drove the country's double-digit
growth in gross domestic product (GDP).
Global investment banks have predicted a much smaller economic impact from
the quake than from the snow storms in January and February.
The biggest loss caused by the quake was that of life and property, but it
was not included in the calculation of GDP growth, said Wang.
The 8.0-magnitude quake that struck southwest China's Sichuan Province on
May 12 had killed 34,073 and injured 245,108 others as of noon on Monday.
Losses were estimated at 67 billion yuan in the province, said Vice
Minister of Industry and Information Xi Guohua at a press conference on Monday.
Meanwhile, Wang said post-disaster reconstruction could stimulate
investment and boost GDP growth in the longer term.
The quake could cut annual national GDP growth by 0.2 percentage point due
to slackened industrial output and consumption in the quake zone, CITIC
Securities chief macro-economic analyst Zhu Jianfang estimated.
"Economic growth and company profits might suffer from the quake in the
second quarter but resume normal performance in the third and fourth quarters,
or even rebound sharply in some sectors," said Zhu.